NFL Draft 2015: Updated Prospect Radar, Post-Week 16
The 2014-15 college football bowl season is upon us, which means it's time for NFL draft prospects to make their final impression on scouts before heading off to their all-star games and the combine.
The first five games of the bowl season took place on Saturday, featuring a handful of draft prospects.
The majority of the draft-eligible prospects in action were late-round hopefuls, but the Las Vegas Bowl did provide us an excellent matchup of two prospects hoping to hear their name in the first round in April.
As usual, this week's prospect radar updates those whose stock is rising or falling. But due to the limited number of legitimate prospects in action, it also features a variety of news and notes from the draft world, including updates to the early-entry list and rumors as to which underclassmen may be leaning one way or the other.
Stock Up: Nate Orchard, DE, Utah
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This week: three tackles, one sack, one forced fumble
Opponent: Colorado State
Colorado State wasn't much of a challenge for Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl, but Nate Orchard went up against one of his most formidable opponents of the season in Colorado State left tackle Ty Sambrailo.
Orchard certainly didn't dominate the game, but he made key plays throughout and showed off his ability as a pass-rusher.
Early in the game, it was a battle between the two potential first-round picks, but as Utah built its lead, Orchard began to gain the advantage.
His struggles against the run, especially at the point of attack, hold Orchard back. But when Colorado State was forced into passing situations, especially on third down, Orchard was turned loose.
While Orchard doesn't have the elite explosive ability like many of the top pass-rushers in the nation, his ability to beat Sambrailo with counter moves was critical to establishing his draft stock.
Orchard's skill set compares favorably to Eagles linebacker Brandon Graham. Much like Graham, Orchard wins with technique to overcome a modest combination of size and athleticism.
Current draft projections: Rounds 2-3
Stock Down: Brandon Bridge, QB, South Alabama
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This week: 20-of-37, 279 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 41 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
Opponent: Bowling Green
Listed at 6'5", 235 pounds and blessed with a cannon for an arm, it's easy to immediately fall in love with Brandon Bridge's potential. His physical attributes have drawn comparisons to 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, as Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com pointed out:
"Kind of uncanny the similarities between South Alabama QB Brandon Bridge and QB Colin Kaepernick when he was at Nevada. Intriguing traits
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 21, 2014"
But all those raw skills failed to translate to the field against a porous Bowling Green defense in the Camellia Bowl. The Falcons had allowed 92 points in their previous two games, but they shut down Bridge and the Jaguars offense for much of the night.
The most glaring flaw Bridge displayed on Saturday night was a lack of accuracy.
While flawed mechanics certainly contributed to his issues, even when throwing from a clean pocket and stepping into his throws, Bridge missed numerous open receivers down the field.
What Bridge does have going for him is mobility, which allowed him to keep multiple plays alive after the pocket collapsed. He did a nice job keeping his eyes downfield and did not simply tuck and run at the first sign of pressure.
Bridge has battled through an ankle injury over the past two months, so it was nice to see him appear to be back to full strength in terms of mobility.
As a developmental prospect, it's unlikely Bridge will hear his name called before the third day of the draft, but with rare skills he's likely to be given a chance to develop while buried deep on someone's depth chart over the next few seasons.
Current draft projection: Rounds 5-7
Stock Up: Ty Sambrailo, OT, Colorado State
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This week: zero sacks allowed vs. Nate Orchard
Opponent: Utah
It might be a stretch to say Sambrailo improved his stock against Orchard, but at the very least he held his draft projection steady.
Orchard attempted to beat Sambrailo with a speed rush on the edge and was consistently shut down.
Given that speed isn't Orchard's strength, that's not an accomplishment that will shoot Sambrailo up draft boards, but it does give scouts a gauge for how quick Sambrailo can be on his feet.
Sambrailo forced Orchard to win with counter moves throughout the afternoon. Orchard was able to fight back inside and pressure quarterback Garrett Grayson on occasion, but it's worth noting that Colorado State's blocking scheme primarily left Sambrailo on an island without help from the right guard on the inside.
Sambrailo's ability to handle a pass-rusher with Orchard's skill set bodes well for his future in the NFL. Orchard is the type of pass-rusher that will typically line up on the left side of the defensive line at the next level, matching him up with NFL right tackles, which is where Sambrailo's future will be when he plays on Sundays.
Draft projection: Rounds 2-3
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Stock Down: Wes Saxton, TE, South Alabama
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This week: zero receptions
Opponent: Bowling Green
Wes Saxton entered the game nursing an ankle injury, so it's tough to say just how close to 100 percent he really was in this game. However, finishing without a single reception in a game in which the Jaguars trailed throughout is certainly a disappointment.
The performance continued Saxton's disappearing act, which saw his reception total drop from 50 a season ago, to just 20 in his injury-shortened senior year.
This is shaping up to be an underwhelming draft class for the tight end position, which means multiple teams will be hoping to find late-round gems such as Saxton.
By closing out his career with a a disappointing performance, Saxton now must turn his attention to rehabbing his ankle so that he can be at full strength for the East-West Shrine Game and the NFL Scouting Combine.
Current draft projection: Rounds 4-7
Stock Down: Cody Fajardo, QB, Nevada
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This week: 14-of-29, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, 49 rushing yards
Opponent: Louisiana-Lafayette
Fajardo's career at Nevada ended with a thud, as he failed to lead the Wolf Pack into the end zone for the first time this season.
As one of the nation's most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks, playing indoors against Louisiana-Lafayette appeared to be a favorable way for Fajardo to build some momentum heading into draft season. Instead, the game highlighted his flaws and raised serious doubt about his NFL future.
Fajardo lacks an NFL arm, and it was a glaring weakness on Saturday as his passes noticeably floated down the field.
In addition to obvious physical flaws, Fajardo seemed timid throughout the game. He was hesitant to pull the trigger, and while he was able to buy time with his feet, he struggled to find open receivers down the field even after extending the play.
In terms of physical tools, Fajardo compares to Colt McCoy, but he lacks McCoy's understanding of the game and confidence on the field.
Fajardo will attempt to rebuild some draft buzz at the East-West Shrine Game, but he does not look like a draftable prospect at this point.
Current draft projection: undrafted
Declarations
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The following players are among the underclassmen who have already declared who are potential early-round draft selections.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State
After agents told him "he likely will go in the second or third round," Ajayi will turn pro, according to the Idaho Statesman's Chadd Cripe. Having amassed 641 touches over the past two seasons, it's a logical decision.
Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
Playing in a run-heavy offense, Coates hauled in just 30 receptions this season, but his freakish athleticism will catch the attention of everyone at the combine.
Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
As expected, Peters will enter the draft rather than transfer for the 2015 season, according to Yahoo Sports' Rand Getlin. Peters was dismissed from the Washington program by head coach Chris Petersen earlier this year.
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
LSU continues to churn out defensive prospects, and Collins is the latest to jump early to the pros. Listed at 6'2", Collins has the height that NFL teams have started to cover in their cornerbacks in recent years.
Returning to School?
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The following draft-eligible prospects are either returning to school or leaning that direction according to reports.
Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
The majority of the top draft-eligible quarterbacks are expected to turn pro, but Cook continues to state his intentions to return to school, according to The Associated Press' Noah Trister (h/t NFL.com's Mike Huguenin). Players often change their mind this time of year, but this message is consistent with Cook's comments throughout the year.
Travin Dural, WR, LSU
LSU's leading receiver announced he is sticking around for at least one more season, per WBRZ's Michael Cauble. The redshirt sophomore experienced a breakout year, despite being the only legitimate weapon in the Tigers' passing attack.
Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
According to John Shinn of The Norman Transcript, Shepard has submitted his paperwork to the advisory committee, but said he has "no intention of leaving." Since schools can only submit paperwork for five prospects, it's likely Shepard told his coaches a different story in order to get on the Sooners list.
Jalen Mills, S, LSU
According to Jim Kleinpeter of NOLA.com, Mills did not receive a good grade from the draft advisory committee and will return for his senior year.
Danielle Hunter, DE, LSU
LSU has a long history of sending defensive stars to the pros early, so Yahoo Sports' Rand Getlin's tweet that Hunter is "leaning toward returning" is somewhat surprising. A dominant performance against Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley could still sway him in the other direction, however.
James Burgess, LB, Louisville
The Cardinals have already lost safety Gerod Holliman to the draft, so Burgess' return is key. Burgess will be one of the stars of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham's defense in 2015.
Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA
It had previously been reported that Payton was considering a jump to the pros, but Payton spoke up this week and put those rumors to bed, according to the Los Angeles Daily News' Jack Wang. It would be tough to blame him for leaving with his quarterback though, as his production is likely to drop without Brett Hundley.
Testing the Waters
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The following prospects are among those who have reportedly submitted paperwork to be evaluated by the NFL draft advisory committee.
Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
Doug Haller of AZCentral Sports reported that Strong had submitted his paperwork, but was undecided about his future at this time.
Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Prescott is coming off a breakout year and has already graduated, so an early entry is certainly possible. He has submitted his paperwork but has not made a decision.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland
Diggs has been out with a lacerated kidney since early November, but he is expected to return for Maryland's bowl game. His performance may impact his decision about 2015.
Byron Marshall, RB/WR, Oregon
Marshall is seeking the opinion of the advisory committee but has not given an indication as to which direction he is leaning.
Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
Williams confirmed to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune that he submitted his draft paperwork, but he would wait to announce his decision until after the Golden Gophers bowl.
Avery Young, OL, Auburn
The Auburn sophomore obviously has talent, but he is only a redshirt sophomore. Greg Robinson's struggles as a rookie in St. Louis could potentially factor into his decision.
Tyler Kroft, TE, Rutgers
Despite modest numbers as a junior, Kroft requested a draft grade. Rutgers' new offensive scheme in 2014 didn't utilize Kroft's talents often, so he may be ready to move on.
What the Experts Are Saying
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ESPN's Todd McShay released his first mock draft (subscription required) of the year this past week. Predictably, Marcus Mariota was penciled into the No. 1 slot to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jameis Winston comes off the board at No. 2 for the Tennessee Titans.
McShay elected to include both Melvin Gordon (to the Baltimore Ravens) and the Todd Gurley (Seattle Seahawks) in his draft. Despite the obvious talent of both players, it's somewhat surprising to see two running backs in the first round—especially the injury-prone Gurley.
Another surprise in McShay's mock draft actually appeared in the "top five prospects still available" section. Ohio State receiver Devin Smith appeared among McShay's top prospects who just missed the cut.
Smith has been an afterthought in draft discussions this year due to his inconsistent play, but he is generating some late momentum. Earlier this month, NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah stated: "I don't see him going any lower than the second round."
Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu will miss the Ducks' bowl playoff run due to a knee injury suffered in practice. NFLDraftScout.com's Dane Brugler writes that a knee injury is particularly devastating for Ekpre-Olomu due to concerns about his size.
Ryan McCrystal is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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