NFL Picks Week 16: Odds and Over/Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

One of the most frustrating parts of following point spreads in the NFL is how they make you think.

Everyone believes they know what will happen before games kick off, but oddsmakers are so skilled at setting up numbers that are so easy to see going one way or another that you can't help but panic looking at them. 

Fortunately, there are trends to follow that will make your life easier. It's all a matter of knowing which numbers to look at, as well as what teams have done against similar competition. Numbers have taken over all sports, so it's okay to be confused and feel overwhelmed. 

Week 16 is particularly cringe-inducing to the odds hounds because of how deep the schedule goes. Of the 13 remaining games, 12 feature at least one team in the playoff mix, and seven are between teams trying to secure their spot in the postseason.

However, there's a pattern to look for in certain games. The answers you want are coming as soon as you look at the picks for Week 16. 

Matchup	Spread;Over/Under	Pick
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-3); 41 O/U	Panthers, 27-17
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	Lions (-9.5); 44 O/U	Lions, 31-10
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	Ravens (-5); 42 O/U	Ravens, 24-14
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	Dolphins (-7.5); 42 O/U	Dolphins, 27-20
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	Saints (-7); 56 O/U	Saints, 41-38
New England Patriots at New York Jets	Patriots (-11.5); 46.5 O/U	Patriots, 41-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers (-2.5); 47 O/U	Steelers, 24-16
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Packers (-13); 49 O/U	Packers, 38-20
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	Rams (-7); 43.5 O/U	Giants, 24-17
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys (-3.5); 55 O/U	Cowboys, 30-27
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	Bills (-7.5); 40 O/U	Bills, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Seahawks (-9); 36.5 O/U	Seahawks, 27-3
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals	Broncos (-3.5); 47.5 O/U	Bengals, 27-24

Odds and Over/Under Advice

Starting with the game of the day between the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys, the oddsmakers have set the over/under at 55. This feels low for two reasons. 

First, the Colts and Cowboys combine to average 57.5 points per game. Indianapolis is third in the league at 30.3 points per game, while Dallas is seventh with 27.2. Andrew Luck leads the NFL with 4,492 passing yards and 38 touchdowns, going up against a defense that allows 249.8 pass yards per game. 

As for Dallas' offense, this is a game in which the rushing attack should have no problems going off. DeMarco Murray is reportedly planning to play despite a hand injury, via NFL Network's Desmond Purnell:

That's obviously huge news when you consider how much of the Cowboys' offense has run through Murray this year, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Also, keep in mind that Indianapolis let New England's Jonas Gray go off for 201 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11. Imagine what Dallas' offensive line will do to the Colts. 

The second reason to take the over is recent history for these two teams. According to the Odds Shark game preview, the Colts have hit the over 11 of their last 16 games, and the Cowboys have done it in four of their last five contests. 

Based on the way these two offenses work and how ineffective their defenses have been, expect a shootout that exceeds the 55 points being given. 

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Another game of interest, though further down the totem pole due to one team's quarterback situation, is Seattle going to Arizona in a matchup that will likely determine the winner of the NFC West crown. 

As the numbers indicate, it's expected to be a low-scoring blowout for the Seahawks. That was the case when these two teams met on November 23, with Seattle winning 19-3. Pete Carroll's team keeps getting better, while Bruce Arians is just trying to make it through the year with a healthy quarterback. 

The Cardinals have been dreadful on offense for the last five weeks, scoring a total of 64 points during that span. The defense has allowed them to go 3-2 during that stretch, though this week will be the biggest test. 

Ryan Lindley will get the start for Arizona. He holds the dubious NFL record of having made the most career passes without a touchdown, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Another bad sign noted by ESPN, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, is Lindley's inability to make plays down the field:

Now realize that Lindley is going against a Seattle defense that allows an NFL-low 184 passing yards per game and ranks fourth with 17 touchdown passes given up. The nine points being given to the Seahawks feels like a slight, even though the game is being played in Arizona. 

There's no way the Cardinals cover the nine-point spread, let alone put up enough points to get this game close to the 36.5 over/under that's been set. 

The biggest AFC game on the schedule is Kansas City traveling to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are one game ahead of the Chiefs in the standings and can all but guarantee Andy Reid's team won't make a second consecutive postseason appearance with a win. 

This is another game in which the spread doesn't seem to line up with anything these two teams have done, though Odds Shark does offer a solid explanation for why the Steelers are only getting 2.5 points:

"

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to cover ATS vs their hosts on Sunday, as they are 9-5 ATS versus the spread this season, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-7 ATS. Kansas City is 5-9 against the over under total, while Pittsburgh is 9-5 versus the number.

...

The Steelers-Chiefs odds would favor the Steelers if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Pittsburgh is rated No. 7 in our latest Odds Shark poll, while the Chiefs sit at No. 11.

"

Unfortunately, this is a bad style matchup for the Chiefs. Pittsburgh's offense can win through the air or on the ground. Kansas City has done a good job limiting opponents in the passing game this year, allowing 199 yards, but its dreadful run defense (132.6 yards per game) suggests Le'Veon Bell will go off. 

When the Chiefs get behind, they have to throw the ball. That's bad news because Alex Smith doesn't move the ball down the field, as these numbers from Vincent Verhei of FootballOutsiders.com show:

"

He has now thrown 83 passes to receivers behind the line of scrimmage this season (sixth-most in the league), but only 49 deep balls (31st). Further, Smith's average deep ball this season has only gone 22.2 yards downfield, shortest of any passer with at least 10 deep pass attempts.

So even on the rare occasions when Smith has thrown deep, he has still thrown relatively short.

"

The weakest part of Pittsburgh's defense is stopping the pass, so Smith will have to make plays and hope Jamaal Charles is able to do enough in the running game to open things up.

The Steelers are starting to warm up with two straight wins, in which they've scored a total of 69 points. They are at home and making a playoff push. It would be an upset if the black and yellow didn't cover, though Kansas City's offense isn't good enough to push this past the over/under of 48 that has been set. 

Those are the key matchups for which the odds seem to suggest that someone is seeing things in a more optimistic or pessimistic way than the trends suggest.

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.