NFL Picks Week 16: Full Odds and Predicting Key Games with Playoff Implications

There's an interesting dichotomy going on in the NFL right now, as fans are happy and sad heading into Week 16. Happiness comes from knowing there are 14 games that have at least one team in playoff contention, but there's sadness at realizing there are only two weeks left before the season ends. 

The talk of parity in the NFL comes up every year, but it's never felt more appropriate than in 2014. There are usual stalwarts like New England, Denver, Seattle and Green Bay in the mix, yet that's just the tip of the iceberg thanks to 21 teams either in or with a shot at the playoffs. 

It's also rare that you find a year as wide open as this, with all of the top contenders having some major flaw that can be exposed and many teams floating on the edges that have proven capable of putting together 60 excellent minutes in a big matchup. 

All of the contenders need to be on point this week, as the battle for seedings and berths comes into focus. Here are the latest odds for each game, as well as a closer look at the matchups with key playoff implications. 

NFL Week 16 Spreads and Picks

Matchup	Spread	Prediction
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Thursday)	Jaguars (-3.5)	Jaguars, 20-17
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (Saturday)	Eagles (-7.5)	Eagles, 27-13
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday)	49ers (-1)	Chargers, 24-14
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-3)	Panthers, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	Lions (-9.5)	Lions, 31-14
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	Ravens (-5)	Ravens, 24-14
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	Dolphins (-7.5)	Dolphins, 23-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	Saints (-7)	Saints, 41-38
New England Patriots at New York Jets	Patriots (-11.5)	Patriots, 35-10
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers (-2.5)	Steelers, 27-16
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Packers (-11.5)	Packers, 41-20
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	Rams (-5.5)	Giants, 24-21
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys (-2.5)	Cowboys, 27-24
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	Bills (-7)	Bills, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks, 27-3
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals	Broncos (-3.5)	Bengals, 27-24

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

This is Kansas City's last stand. The Chiefs are 8-6, one game behind Pittsburgh and Baltimore for the final playoff spot in the AFC. A loss on Sunday will effectively eliminate Andy Reid's team from contention because it will take a lot of tiebreakers and things going right to get them in with a Week 17 win against San Diego. 

This game will also go a long way toward telling us who the Chiefs are. They have good wins on their resume over New England, Buffalo and Seattle, but inexplicable losses to Tennessee and Oakland have their backs against the wall. 

On the bright side, the Chiefs are likely to have Jamaal Charles and Tamba Hali available for this game, as ESPN NFL Nation tweeted out a report by ESPN.com's Adam Teicher:

"

Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali look like they will be ready vs. Steelers http://t.co/bT68IcOHr5

— ESPN NFL Nation (@ESPN_NFLNation) December 15, 2014"

The Charles element is of particular note because the Steelers are much better at stopping the run than the pass, as this Statmilk graphic shows:

On the defensive side, the Chiefs have the numbers to suggest they can stop Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown from lighting them up. Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest passing yards (199) and completion percentage (57.6) to opposing quarterbacks this season.

The bad news is the Chiefs own one of the worst run defenses in the league. They allow 132.6 yards per game on the ground with Le'Veon Bell coming at them. 

In addition to ranking second in the league with 1,278 rushing yards and averaging 4.9 yards per carry, Bell has been the best in the NFL at protecting the football, per NFL on ESPN:

The Chiefs are good enough to keep this game close, but where is the offense going to come from when they need a quick score late? Alex Smith won't throw the ball more than five yards under any circumstance, the wide receivers have yet to catch a touchdown and Charles can only do so much. 

Steelers 27, Chiefs 16

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

As the week has gone on, it seems more likely that DeMarco Murray will play for Dallas. According to Charean Williams of The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Murray was able to increase his practice workload on Thursday:

It's notable for many reasons, not the least of which is Indianapolis' defense is a matchup that Dallas' offensive line has to be salivating over. The Cowboys' starting five up front average 318 pounds, based on the respected weight totals listed on ESPN.com. 

While the Colts have size on the defensive line with Cory Redding (318 pounds) and Josh Chapman (340), they are built more on speed and finesse. That's not going to work well against the Cowboys.

We've seen teams pick this defense apart on the ground. Remember when Jonas Gray became a legend for one day when he went for 201 yards and four touchdowns in New England's 42-20 thrashing of the Colts. 

Another problem for the Colts, though, one that isn't getting much publicity, is Andrew Luck's turnover problems. It may come off as nitpicking for a quarterback that leads the league in passing yards (4,492) and touchdown passes (38), but being able to protect the ball is a big deal. Just ask Jay Cutler. 

Luck is light years ahead of Cutler, but per the NFL on ESPN, there's only one quarterback with more turnovers this season than the Colts' star:

Note: The stat came out before the end of Chicago's game against New Orleans in Week 15. Cutler currently has 24 turnovers. 

As long as Murray is able to play at some level close to what we have seen this season, allowing the Cowboys to control the clock and not force Tony Romo to throw the ball 35 to 40 times, the Colts will have a hard time winning. 

If Murray can't go, that changes the equation. Since all signs point to him suiting up, go with the Cowboys at home. 

Cowboys 27, Colts 24

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals enter their Monday night showdown against Denver in a similar position to Kansas City. Even though Marvin Lewis' team has some breathing room in the playoff race with a 9-4-1 record, they need to figure out who they are. 

Cincinnati has two nice wins over Baltimore but is 0-3 against other AFC teams currently in the playoff mix (New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh). A loss this week puts more pressure on the Bengals next week in their finale against the Steelers at Heinz Field. 

One change Lewis made last week that paid immediate dividends was making Jeremy Hill the starter at running back. The rookie out of LSU was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week with 148 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland, via NFL on ESPN:

That's good news because it adds a different dynamic to the offense and means Andy Dalton doesn't have to win a game on his own. 

If Dalton is forced to air it out, A.J. Green is the right receiver to have. The former Georgia star has been on fire in his last four games, as these numbers from ESPN's Pat McManamon show:

On the other side, the Broncos seem off lately. They have won their last four games, clinching the AFC West in Week 15, but the offense is only averaging 24.2 points since Week 11 after averaging 31.8 in the first nine games. 

Peyton Manning was sick and injured his thigh last week against San Diego, but he's looked human (by his standards) recently with four straight games under 300 passing yards, including two games under 200 yards in Weeks 13 and 14.

The Broncos have adjusted their game during this stretch, allowing C.J. Anderson to become the running back this team has been searching for all year. That will help make them more dangerous in January—but only if the passing game gets back to where it was earlier. 

This feels like one of those games where something funny is going to happen. It's in Cincinnati on Monday night, so the Bengals will pull off the upset and move one step closer to locking up the AFC North title. 

Bengals 27, Broncos 24

Odds via OddsShark.com. Stats via ESPN.com unless otherwise noted

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.