UFC Fight Night 58: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC Fight Night 58 comes to us this Saturday with a top middleweight matchup leading the charge.
No. 4-ranked contender Lyoto Machida takes on No. 10-ranked CB Dollaway. Machida is coming off a loss to champion Chris Weidman, and Dollaway has won two straight to jump up the division's rankings. The winner will enter the title picture in 2015.
Also in action is former UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao. The now No. 1-ranked contender takes on No. 14-ranked Mitch Gagnon in the co-main event in Brazil.
Before heading off to make a few plays with your hard-earned money, you should take a peek at the matchups as we try to help you make better-informed decisions. The six-fight main card has some interesting lines on the bouts.
This is the final UFC card of 2014. Let's close out the year by helping you get some positive flow into your accounts.
Daniel Sarafian (-165) vs. Antonio Dos Santos Jr. (+135)
1 of 6
This is Daniel Sarafian's (8-5) final chance to impress the brass as he takes on UFC newcomer Antonio Dos Santos Jr. (6-1).
Sarafian made the finals of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, but an injury kept him from competing at the finals. He debuted against CB Dollaway and lost. He is 1-2 since then and has failed to live up to expectations.
Dos Santos enters on a four-fight win streak. He is likes to strike and hurt his opponents. There is a good chance he can do that to Sarafian.
This matchup favors Sarafian, and it's his opportunity to finally put it together inside the Octagon. And at minus-165, it's a good play to lay down on him this weekend. Dos Santos Jr. has looked good in the Brazilian minor leagues, but this is a big step up for him.
Sarafian takes him down and submits him.
Prediction: Sarafian
The Play: Sarafian
Erick Silva (-450) vs. Mike Rhodes (+325)
2 of 6
This matchup is similar to the main card opener—a prospect (Erick Silva) who has failed to live up to expectations versus a dangerous underdog (Mike Rhodes) who is seeking a key win.
Silva (16-5) burst onto the scene in 2011 but then began to falter. He has exchanged wins and losses in his six UFC bouts, but his second UFC fight was an unfortunate disqualification loss to Carlo Prater for punches to the back of the head.
Rhodes (6-3) was a good signing for the UFC, but he just has been unable to get it going inside the Octagon. He is 0-2 in the organization, and this is likely his last chance.
I actually wouldn't mind taking a shot on Rhodes at the current odds, but once they begin to fall, I would leave it alone. And the odds will fall sooner than later.
This matchup favors Silva a bit too much. The Brazilian will be comfortable at home and find a finish.
Prediction: Silva
The Play: Avoid this bout
Elias Silverio (+140) vs. Rashid Magomedov (-170)
3 of 6
One of the most overlooked fights on the card, and possibly in recent events, is Elias Silverio (11-0) vs. Rashid Magomedov (18-1).
These two lightweights are on the verge of breaking through in the UFC rankings, and a strong showing to close out 2014 will help their case.
Silverio is 3-0 inside the Octagon with an impressive win against Isaac Vallie-Flagg. Magomedov is 2-0 in the promotion.
Their styles make this bout more exciting. This could be a 15-minute back-and-forth battle. The fighters are remarkably evenly matched.
That is why you should go with who you feel more comfortable with. It's a coin-flip fight with decent odds on both men. It may be a cop-out to say that, but it's a dead heat.
I tend to lean toward Magomedov in this matchup. It'll go the full 15, and I'm looking forward to a potential Fight of the Night.
Prediction: Magomedov
The Play: Whomever you're comfortable with, if anyone
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Antonio Carlos Junior (+135) vs. Patrick Cummins (-165)
4 of 6
The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil Season 3 winner Antonio Carlos Junior (4-0) gets a tough fight right away against Patrick Cummins (6-1).
Cummins really showed his development in his last fight with a crushing performance against Kyle Kingsbury. It was a one-sided beatdown. Cummins has a fairly high ceiling in the division if he can get his striking up to snuff.
This is such a tough fight for Carlos Junior. He has to keep the fight standing, and that's a prospect I cannot get behind. Will he clip Cummins? I doubt it, but anything can happen.
I expect Cummins to put together another wrestling-based dominant performance against Carlos Junior, and at minus-165, I love the odds for the American. Take him and the line.
Prediction: Cummins
The Play: All-in on Cummins
Renan Barao (-750) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+475)
5 of 6
With four consecutive victories, the No. 14-ranked bantamweight contender, Mitch Gagnon (12-2), has earned his premier 135-pound matchup with the No. 2-ranked Renan Barao (32-2, 1 NC). This is his chance to make a statement.
Unfortunately for him, Barao is better in every category. He is just a superior fighter. Even worse for Gagnon is that Barao will be motivated after losing his title and failing to make it to his rematch with T.J. Dillashaw.
This fight is all Barao.
The issue here isn't with the fight but rather with the line. At minus-750, there is just no value here. Skip this fight.
Prediction: Barao
The Play: No value
Lyoto Machida (-700) vs. CB Dollaway (+450)
6 of 6
Lyoto Machida (21-5) failed in his attempt to get the UFC Middleweight Championship, but he was competitive in a Fight of the Year contender. His title window is closing, and as a result he needs an impressive win on Saturday.
CB Dollaway (15-5) is an unlikely contender. He quietly got better while the focus was elsewhere and made his way up the ladder.
This matchup favors Machida heavily, and in the past I wouldn't hesitate to pick him. However, not only is he aging but he has started to take more chances in his fights. That may open the door for Dollaway to upset the former light heavyweight champion.
That is why I don't think it's a terrible play to take a small flier on the underdog. The odds are large enough to make it enticing, even though I still side with Machida in the straight-up pick. There is a chance for an upset.
If it's the old Machida style, he will at worst coast to a decision win and more likely finish Dollaway within the first 15 minutes.
Prediction: Machida
The Play: A small flier on Dollaway
Just-for-Fun Full Card Parlay: Vitor Miranda, Tim Means, Yuta Sasaki, Darren Elkins, Renato Carneiro, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Daniel Sarafian, Erick Silva, Rashid Magomedov, Patrick Cummins, Renan Barao, Lyoto Machida
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