Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Mid-December Buzz
While there was no shortage of action at MLB's 2014 winter meetings in San Diego, the moves made there only represent a fraction of what general managers discussed. For the winter meetings are where future transactions' seeds are sowed.
As we sit here a little over a week after baseball's annual gathering came to an end, some of those seeds are starting to germinate and bloom into full-blown rumors. But as every baseball fan knows, not all of those rumblings will come to bear fruit.
Which ones will ultimately come to fruition, and which will ultimately shrivel up and be forgotten?
Let's take a look.
Rumor: Washington Is Going to Trade Ian Desmond
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Among qualified shortstops, only Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki have been more productive at the plate than Washington's Ian Desmond since 2012, according to FanGraphs' wRC+. And if you're a fan of WAR (wins above replacement), then Desmond sits alone atop the mountain, ahead of his more ballyhooed counterparts.
The Nationals have tried—unsuccessfully—to work out a long-term extension with the 29-year-old, who told The Washington Post's Chelsea Janes that while he wants to stay a National, he's not going to let sentimentality stand in the way of landing the multiyear deal he deserves:
"I was 18 when I signed, I had like four armpit hairs. Now I've got three kids. Randy Knorr (Nationals bench coach) has seen that every step of the way, you know what I mean? Mike Wallace was showing me the ropes when I was a kid, the head clubhouse attendant. This is an organization I've been with a long time. Obviously I want to be here and play here, but this is a business.
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As recently as last week, ESPN's Jim Bowden reported that the Nationals and Seattle Mariners continued to talk about a potential deal involving Desmond, with the biggest issue being the Mariners' reluctance to include one of the team's stud young arms, James Paxton or Taijuan Walker, as part of a package.
Seattle's resolve to hang on to those arms is so strong that, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners turned down a two-for-two swap that would have landed them Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann in exchange for Walker and shortstop Brad Miller.
While it seems ludicrous for the Mariners to have declined, both Desmond and Zimmermann are free agents after the 2015 season, while Miller and Walker are under team control for at least another five years.
That said, the Nationals now have an heir apparent to Desmond at the position, as they'll eventually acquire Trea Turner from the San Diego Padres, once the 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft is eligible to be traded in June, as part of a three-team deal that also involves the Tampa Bay Rays.
Turner's arrival may not help the Nationals move Desmond to Seattle, but it certainly makes a trade of the three-time Silver Slugger far more likely given the team's aversion to paying him what he's worth.
Verdict: Fact
Rumor: Los Angeles Angels Will Trade Josh Hamilton
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There's no way to put a positive spin on Josh Hamilton's time in Los Angeles, but that's not stopping Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto from saying all the right things about his team's embattled slugger.
Dipoto told Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal:
"We do believe in Josh. We’ve seen it every day when he takes batting practice. We’ve seen him hit balls that humans shouldn’t hit. What he does, 99 percent of the players can’t do. We are absolutely of the belief that the ability is there for him to do the things that he has done in the past. Now we have to help him turn the key to bring the ability out.
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Yet Rosenthal reports that for all that belief in the 33-year-old, the Angels have called the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers to see if they have any interest in trading for him.
It should come as no surprise that those were the first two teams Dipoto called—Hamilton's best years came as a member of the Rangers, while Padres GM A.J. Preller and vice president of scouting Don Welke were Texas executives during Hamilton's run in Arlington.
But let's be realistic: Hamilton's value is about as low as it can possibly get, and the Angels would need to pick up a significant portion of the $83 million left on his deal, which runs through 2017.
The whole point of moving Hamilton would be to reduce payroll and give the team some flexibility. Would owner Arte Moreno sign off on a deal that required him to pay, say, two-thirds of Hamilton's remaining money?
Even if the answer is yes, is there a team out there that would be willing to give the Angels a significant package of talent for the chance to pay Hamilton $10 million a year in the hopes that he can regain his prior form?
Would you make such a deal with the Angels?
Neither would I.
Verdict: Fiction
Rumor: San Diego Isn't Done Dealing
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While San Diego's payroll pales in comparison to that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres are doing their best to emulate their big-market division rivals.
With the club's recent addition of 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Wil Myers and its hopes to complete a deal with the Dodgers that will bring the team Matt Kemp (currently held up by concerns over arthritis in Kemp's hips), the Padres find themselves with a glut of outfield talent, something the Dodgers dealt with in 2014.
Maybe "glut" isn't the right word, as where the Dodgers had five players vying for playing time, the Padres could potentially have eight players for four spots (three starters and a reserve):
- Abraham Almonte
- Matt Kemp
- Rymer Liriano
- Cameron Maybin
- Wil Myers
- Carlos Quentin
- Seth Smith
- Will Venable
Kemp and Myers are locks for two of those spots, leaving the rest to battle for the starting center field job and a role on the bench as the club's fourth outfielder.
Something's got to give, and that's why nobody—including ESPN's Jerry Crasnick and Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan—believes the Padres are done dealing. Of that group of outfielders, sources tell Crasnick that Smith is the hottest name on the rumor mill.
While both Baltimore and Seattle have been linked to Smith recently, Rosenthal points out that San Diego's former regime promised Smith that it wouldn't trade him this winter. New general manager A.J. Preller has no obligation to fulfill that promise, but breaking it could leave a bad taste in other players' mouths.
Whether it's ultimately Smith or someone else, the Padres can't carry so many outfielders on their roster. Another move will be made.
Verdict: Fact
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Rumor: Atlanta Will Be Able to Package Chris Johnson with Gattis or Justin Upton
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Just when you thought the flurry of activity over the past week had resulted in a missed opportunity for Atlanta to move Evan Gattis or Justin Upton, MLB.com's Mark Bowman reports that the club discussed one or both of the sluggers with at least five teams Wednesday.
Clearly, the demand for right-handed power around baseball has not waned.
For Atlanta to work out a deal that brings the Braves back what they consider to be an adequate return for either of the sluggers is difficult enough, especially with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting in late November that the club is seeking more for Upton than it received from St. Louis for Jason Heyward.
But now comes another complication. According to Bowman, the Braves are trying to make Gattis or Upton part of a package that includes third baseman Chris Johnson.
That the 30-year-old Johnson, a career .283 hitter, is due at least $23.5 million through 2017 doesn't seem like a major obstacle. That is, until you look deeper inside the numbers.
Among 44 players who have logged enough innings at the hot corner since 2011 to qualify for FanGraphs' leaderboards, Johnson ranks 27th in wRC+ (100) and 28th in WAR (3.5). It's even uglier on the defensive side of things, where he ranks next-to-last in UZR/150 (minus-10.6) and last in DRS (minus-42).
Unless the Braves are going to pick up the rest of the money on his deal, why would any team agree to take Johnson and his contract along with Gattis or Upton, no matter how much the team covets its power?
It wouldn't.
Verdict: Fiction
Rumor: Asdrubal Cabrera Will Be a Team's Starting Third Baseman in 2015
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One of the biggest selling points for Asdrubal Cabrera this winter has been his versatility, not that he's a former two-time All-Star shortstop or, at 29 years old, is still relatively young.
So it came as no surprise to see CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweet that multiple teams had interest in Cabrera at a multitude of positions:
"giants, a's, mets, cards, twins among teams to show interest in asdrubal cabrera, who could play 3b or 2b as well as ss
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 17, 2014
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Cabrera finished the 2014 season as Washington's everyday second baseman, and while he's not going to win any Gold Glove Awards for his work there, he held his own at the position.
Shortstops sliding over to another infield position is nothing new, after all.
Cal Ripken Jr. moved from shortstop to third base for the Baltimore Orioles toward the end of his career. So did Alex Rodriguez in New York, though his days in the field are apparently over. Even youngsters, like 22-year-old Manny Machado, who came through Baltimore's farm system as a shortstop, have made the switch.
So it would seem like a foregone conclusion that Cabrera would follow suit, especially if it meant that he could land a decent multiyear deal with a club.
Except it's not. According Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans, via the Bay Area News Group's Alex Pavlovic, Cabrera doesn't want to play a corner infield spot—he wants to stay in the middle of the diamond. Given his lack of range, that's sure to be an issue for some of those potential suitors.
Yet Cabrera isn't the only versatile veteran shortstop on the market. Stephen Drew, two years his elder, also slid from shortstop to second base in 2014 and could be penciled in as a team's starting third baseman in 2015.
Ultimately, Cabrera will have to decide what's more important—his position or his paycheck.
As AC/DC says, "Moneytalks."
Verdict: Fact
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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