NFL Predictions Week 16: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's beginning to look a lot like—the playoffs. Thought I was gonna say Christmas, didn't you?

With the dawn of Week 16 Thursday night in Jacksonville (given the time of year, it's fitting the week's slate starts with a turkey), only two weeks remain in the 2014 regular season.

That means the stakes couldn't be higher for many NFL teams. Sure, some clubs are just playing out the string, but many more are either jockeying for playoff position or a first-round bye. Others still are clinging desperately to their fading postseason aspirations.

It should make for a pressure-packed week of NFL action, and here's a glance at how the Division Lead and National Lead Writers at Bleacher Report expect Week 16 to play out.

All odds via Odds Shark.

Upset of the Week

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Winner: Minnesota Vikings (+7) over Miami Dolphins (6 votes)

We've reached the point in the proceedings where a single loss can be catastrophic, especially for teams clinging to hopes of making the NFL's second season by a thread.

Such is the case with the Miami Dolphins, who have dropped three of their past four games. At 7-7, they haven't been eliminated yet, but Miami needs both to win out and get quite a bit of help. Unfortunately, several members of our panel don't expect Miami to accomplish the first goal, making the second irrelevant.

AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst expects the Minnesota Vikings to pull out a close one in South Florida on Sunday:

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Miami is not a hospitable place for opposing quarterbacks as of late, and for rookies like Teddy Bridgewater, he could be thrown to the fire. However, Minnesota's defense hasn't been generous either, allowing 19.3 points to opposing offenses even when on the road, and 333 yards to home-team offenses. It's not that Bridgewater will have a great game, but more that Ryan Tannehill will struggle that will result in a Vikings' road upset over the Dolphins this week.

"

Should that prove to be the case, head coach Joe Philbin might want to start glancing at the real estate ads.

Others receiving votes: Atlanta Falcons (+7) over New Orleans Saints (4 votes), Indianapolis Colts (+3) over Dallas Cowboys (3 votes), Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes)

Blowout of the Week

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Winner: Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 votes)

All of the candidates for Blowout of the Week in Week 16 share one thing in common: Each game features one team trying to get in better position for the playoffs and another that can only change its position in next year's NFL draft.

In Tampa, the Buccaneers will play host to an angry Green Bay Packers team still smarting after last week's loss to the Buffalo Bills dropped them from first place in the NFC North.

NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse expects the Packers to take out those frustrations on a Buccaneers team that's won all of two games this season:

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The Packers haven't won in Tampa Bay with Aaron Rodgers as the starter, but that changes this week. The Bucs just lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to IR, which should give a ticked-off Rodgers plenty of time to slice and dice his way through the league's 25th-ranked scoring defense.

"

It's a hard point to argue, especially with Tampa's best pass-rusher now on the shelf.

Others receiving votes: Detroit Lions over Chicago Bears (6 votes), Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Redskins (1 vote)

Biggest Mismatch

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Winner: Seattle Seahawks defense vs. Ryan Lindley (12 votes)

Biggest Mismatch is a category where the responses are often all over the place. It hasn't been at all strange to see eight to 10 different nominees emerge in a given week this year.

Given that, when one mismatch garners a dozen votes, that's a huge red flag. Or in the case of Arizona Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley and Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense, a huge Red(bird) flag.

With both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton banged up, the Cardinals will start Lindley Sunday night in a game that will likely determine the 2014 NFC West champion. That's according to head coach Bruce Arians, who told Darren Urban of azcardinals.com, "Stanton could still be active Sunday, but Lindley will start at QB."

Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald told NFL Network's NFL AM (per Kevin Patra of NFL.com) that he isn't worried about Lindley's ability to lead the team to a win:

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He's a really cerebral young man, he's been in the league for over three (years) and he works hard, extremely hard in the offseason. We actually train together, and he's a student of the game, really focused. ... We really believe in Ryan; he can make all the throws. We just got to protect him, make some plays for him outside, run the ball. We're going to be just fine.

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Tell yourself whatever you need to, Larry.

Others receiving votes: New England Patriots' passing game vs. New York Jets secondary (1 vote), Detroit Lions' passing game vs. Chicago Bears secondary (1 vote), Le'Veon Bell vs. Kansas City Chiefs' run defense (1 vote)

Over/Under: 175 Passing Yards for Ryan Lindley

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Winner: Under (9 votes)

Let's stay in the desert for a bit.

Sunday night actually won't be the first time that Ryan Lindley has seen game action against the Seahawks. Back in 2012, he played in relief during a game against the Seahawks in Seattle.

The result? Eight-of-17 passing for 59 yards, two sacks, a passer rating under 60 and a 58-0 loss.

Yes, 58-0.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter doesn't see things unfolding a whole lot differently this time around:

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Sometimes, football can be strange, weird, shocking or surprising. Underdogs can rise up, giants can fall, also-rans can play out of their minds and superstars can take a pratfall. But Ryan Lindley against the Legion of Boom only ends one way.

"

The majority of our panel agrees, predicting that Lindley will fail to throw for 175 yards. If that's the case, the odds of Arizona winning the game are slim to none.

Sleeper QB Performance

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Winner: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (7 votes)

The mere fact that Robert Griffin is now a candidate to be a "sleeper" shows just how far the 2012 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has fallen.

Granted, by just about any objective measure, Griffin's 2014 season has been a disaster. Blame his inability to adapt to Jay Gruden's scheme. Blame Gruden for stubbornly insisting on trying to make Griffin something he clearly isn't.

Blame whoever you want, but the results are what they are—lousy.

However, Griffin is coming off arguably his best game of the season in last week's loss to the New York Giants, and seven of our panelists believe RG3 will keep that momentum going against the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier wasn't one of them:

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It's hard to pick a sleeper quarterback when a bunch of teams are still not clear who will start, and their options are pretty terrible, anyway. Someone has to stand out from the pack of third-stringers, guys in recent scary car crashes and guys whose own coaches wouldn't say something nice about if they were writing a eulogy.

So I will go with Saint Thaddeus of Perpetual Calamities, who will go up against the winners of a midweek Inner Harbor 40-yard dash who now make up the Ravens secondary. And if Hopeless Case replaces Saint Thad, I'll take him too.

"

If those bums have a good game, Tanier gets nine bajillion bonus points.

Others receiving votes: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (4 votes), Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Johnny Manziel (yeah, I said it), Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Case Keenum/Thad Lewis/Brad the Stadium Usher, Houston Texans (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Andrew Luck or Tony Romo

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Winner: Andrew Luck (13 votes)

Robert Griffin may have fallen apart in 2014, but the same certainly cannot be said for the quarterback to whom Griffin will forever be linked.

Andrew Luck, who the Indianapolis Colts drafted just before Washington took Griffin two years ago, is having an MVP-caliber season. Luck leads the NFL with 4,492 passing yards and 38 touchdown passes. More importantly, for the third time in Luck's three seasons in Indianapolis, the Colts have earned a trip to the playoffs.

Luck and the Colts travel to Dallas on Sunday afternoon to face a red-hot Tony Romo and the Cowboys, who are trying to earn their own playoff spot in the process.

With running back DeMarco Murray's status for Week 16 still very much in doubt thanks to a broken hand, Romo may be called upon to carry more of the offensive load than he has so far this season. Regardless, AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz believes Murray will play and Luck will win the duel, at least from a passing-yardage standpoint:

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DeMarco Murray should have plenty of opportunities to shred the Colts' below-average run defense, which will invariably take the ball out of Tony Romo's hands. Andrew Luck, on the other hand, will probably be asked to do what he does every week: carry the Colts to victory with a high volume of pass attempts, giving him more opportunities to pick up yards against a Cowboys defense that has given up some big plays through the air.

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By a margin that I find a bit surprising, the writers here at Bleacher Report agree with him. And that's with ESPN.com's Mike Wells saying this about No. 1 option T.Y. Hilton: "It would be surprising if Hilton played against a Dallas team that is trying to lock up a playoff spot still."

The Colts list him as questionable with a left hamstring injury, while Reggie Wayne is also dealing with a triceps injury.

Sleeper RB Performance

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Winner: Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys (5 votes)

If variety is the spice of life, then these sleeper categories have been a five-alarm burrito of football goodness.

Eight running backs garnered at least one vote in Week 16. For AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen, it was rookie Tre Mason of the St. Louis Rams:

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The New York Giants' run defense is so bad, even they could run on it. The Giants are allowing a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry and third-worst 135.1 yards per game. The game is also in St. Louis where the Rams have played well this season save a few hiccups.

Mason was just getting on a roll when he ran into the stingy Arizona Cardinals defense last week. The Giants are a get-well team for any running back, and Mason should have a huge day on the ground provided the Rams don't get all of their points on defense.

"

However, the back who earned the most votes this week might conceivably see only a few carries Sunday. That is, if you believe that DeMarco Murray will play. If Murray's broken hand sidelines the NFL's leading rusher, it will fall to Joseph Randle to carry the mail in the Dallas backfield.

The second-year pro told David Helman of the team's website he's ready to start if called upon, saying, "I feel like I can get the job done, definitely. If they ask me to do that—next man up—I don’t want to let the team down. I know this is a huge game for our season, so I’m going to go out there and be fully ready to go."

Randle has shown flashes when afforded opportunities to carry the ball this year. Meanwhile, the Colts rank a mediocre 16th in the NFL against the run in 2014, and Randle will have the luxury of running behind arguably the NFL's best front five.

Add it all up, and it would appear to be a recipe for success in a huge game for the Cowboys.

Others receiving votes: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes), Chris Ivory, New York Jets (1 vote), Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: Jeremy Hill or C.J. Anderson

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Winner: Jeremy Hill (8 votes)

Week 16 ends with a bang as a pair of division leaders do battle in the Queen City.

Much of the pregame hype in this one will center on offensive stars such as Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, but the real deciding factor may be a pair of running backs who didn't even open the season as the starters for their respective teams.

Both C.J. Anderson of the Broncos and Jeremy Hill of the Bengals have emerged as key contributors for their teams down the stretch. Anderson has averaged over 27 carries a game over the past three weeks as the Broncos have moved to a ball-control, ground-and-pound offense. Hill gashed the Cleveland Browns for 148 yards and two scores in a Week 15 performance that netted the rookie AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Still, head coach Marvin Lewis told Joe Kay of The Associated Press (via The Washington Times) that Hill still needs to improve in certain areas, saying, "He’s got to hold onto the football though, or he’ll find himself standing by me more often than he wants. We can’t have the ball on the ground. That’s important for anyone that’s carrying the ball for us."

The vote was as close as votes get, but our panel believes it will be Hill who gains more yardage Monday night, in a game that could shake up the AFC playoff seedings like a Christmas snow globe.

Sleeper WR Performance

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (6 votes)

Shenanigans!

Maybe I'm just being too much of a stickler. Maybe it's my dislike for the very term "sleeper," borne of my years of writing about fantasy football. Whatever the reason, in my opinion, many of this week's nominees for breakout wideout don't really qualify as a "sleeper."

For instance, there's the pick of AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown:

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Gary Kubiak has been scheming his revenge for months. He's gotten one of Joe Flacco's best years yet out of him, and now he's playing against a defense that allows 9.8 catches and 80.1 yards per game to opposing No. 1 receivers, per Football Outsiders.

This is all terrific news for Steve Smith, who I expect to see get behind the Texans secondary on at least one deep play-action pass this week. Houston's best corner, Johnathan Joseph, seems to get hurt and have to miss plays on a weekly basis at this stage of his career. The Ravens will take advantage of this.

"

Granted, Smith has been snoozing of late after a red-hot start. But with multiple 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, he is very much a known commodity.

Then there's this week's winner. DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans has had a breakout second NFL season, hauling in 69 passes for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns. And that's the thing: Can you be a surprise breakout if you've already broken out?

Shenanigans!

Others receiving votes: Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons (4 votes), Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (1 vote), Preston Parker, New York Giants (1 vote), Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Dez Bryant or T.Y. Hilton

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Winner: T.Y. Hilton (8 votes)

Not only does Sunday's game in Big D feature a pair of the NFL's best quarterbacks, but a large part of their success is tied to the phenomenal young wide receivers they have the luxury of throwing to.

Both T.Y. Hilton of the Colts and Dez Bryant of the Cowboys rank inside the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards. The pair have combined to haul in 20 touchdowns this year.

As AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown pointed out, both also have factors working against them in Week 16:

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This is actually a pretty close question given all the circumstances involved. Holding Hilton back: the hamstring injury he sustained last weekend dialed down his production, and while I don't think it's a serious injury, it could hamper him a bit longer. Further, the Colts have Trent Richardson and will use him until they're down by two scores and are forced to put him away.

As for Bryant, I expect the Colts will have Vontae Davis shadow him on a higher than average number of snaps, and Davis is having an All-Pro-caliber season at cornerback.

Ultimately I went with Bryant because I think the challenge will bring out the best in him. We all saw what he can do on Sunday.

"

It's another close call, but our experts disagree, forecasting that it will be Hilton who finishes Sunday's matchup with more receiving yards, assuming of course that he plays.

Sleeper TE Performance

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Winner: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (3 votes)

Like I said, five-alarm burrito.

A full 10 tight ends got at least one vote as this week's "sleeper" at the position. None received more than three. NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson went deep with his sleeper pick:

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Luke Willson has gained only one yard above the absolute minimum over the Seahawks' last two games. No, really; he's caught one pass for one yard, making this a slumbering sleeper pick. But his usage could change quickly in Week 16.

With both Tony Moeaki and Cooper Helfet possibly sitting out, Willson has a chance to make a contribution of some significance if the Seahawks look to exploit one of Arizona's few defensive weaknesses: tight ends. The Cardinals are allowing 65.5 receiving yards per game to the position.

"

That's another bonus-points pick right there.

However, the leading vote-getter for Week 16 was Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings, who is just about over the injuries that have marred his 2014 campaign. That's according to what head coach Mike Zimmer told Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press: "I thought he looked better. This was the first week that I saw him in practice that he looked closer to what he is, and I do agree with (offensive coordinator) Norv (Turner): He may not be 100 totally percent."

Hey! It's Christmas! How can you not like a dude named Rudolph?

Others receiving votes: Andrew Quarless, Green Bay Packers (2 votes), Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (2 votes) Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance (aka the House of Watt)

J Patrick Schneider/Associated Press

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (6 votes)

Whew. I thought the Apocalypse had arrived just in time for Christmas.

Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, he of the 16.5 sacks and five touchdowns in 2014, has won the vote in this category every week this season save one—Houston's bye week.

It appears some writers are suffering from a Watt-age overload. This week's vote was one of the closest of the season, although for AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen it was a matchup-based call:

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We might as well rename this award the J.J. Watt Award because he wins it every week. However, this might be one of Watt's few off-weeks. That doesn't mean he won't be good and have an impact, but he's going up against one of the best offensive lines in football in the Baltimore Ravens. If Marshal Yanda, Kelechi Osemele and Ricky Wagner can't slow Watt down, I don't know how you could not give the MVP to him.

Meanwhile, Mario Williams gets to go up against Khalif Barnes in Oakland. Barnes was absolutely abused by Justin Houston last week, and it got ugly for the Raiders fast as a result. Houston could similarly have a huge day if Marcus Gilbert can't go.

Connor Barwin could have himself a day chasing around Robert Griffin III and making Washington's offensive tackles look silly. Point is, there is no shortage of candidates for big defensive performances this week if Watt is quieter than normal.

"

However, if we've learned anything about Watt in 2014, it's that he doesn't care how good you are. Be you a Pro Bowler or a rookie, if you mess with Watt, you got problems.

Others receiving votes: Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills (3 votes), Glover Quin, FS, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Connor Barwin, OLB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)

Flop of the Week

David Richard/Associated Press

"Winner": Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (5 votes)

Given that this is the last edition of this article before Christmas, I considered doing away with this category. 'Tis the season to be jolly and all. However, like that ugly sweater or fruitcake, everyone gets a gift at Christmas time that, well, sucks.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier believes the Seattle Seahawks are going to get socks and underwear Sunday night in the desert. Well, sort of:

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Russell Wilson will lead the Seahawks to a win. But it will be another seven-sack, 17-point affair as Todd Bowles unleashes pure madness at him to try to win with the Cardinals offense tied behind their backs. That will be disappointing to bettors with a touchdown spread to beat and fantasy Super Bowlers hoping for 100 rushing yards to go with rushing and passing touchdowns.

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However, it's Cincinnati's Andy Dalton who earned the nod as this week's fruitcake. ESPN.com's Coley Harvey breaks down the fruity deliciousness that is "The Red Rifle" in prime time:

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Even if you know very little about the Bengals, you probably still know the following. Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That's an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights. It all means that when the rest of America outside the Ohio River Valley gets to watch the Bengals play, they don't typically see favorable results for the team in orange and black.

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Thanks a lot, Uncle Andy.

Others receiving votes: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (3 votes), Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Robert Griffin, QB, Washington Redskins (1 vote), Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote), Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)