Vikings vs. Dolphins: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan

The Week 16 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings features two teams that have failed to make the playoffs for very different reasons. Miami has been riddled with injuries and inconsistent play as it's stumbled down the stretch to a 7-7 record.

Although the Vikings can finish no better than 8-8, Minnesota is a team that has taken on the attitude of its head coach, Mike Zimmer. Minnesota lacks talent at several key spots, but its players are tough-nosed and give maximum effort. Blessed with several budding stars, the Vikings are a handful for any team at this point in the season.

All but officially eliminated from the playoffs, Miami can draw motivation for the sake of professional pride and a potentially nice payday. We’ve previously looked at which players have the most to gain from strong performances in the final two weeks, and many of those guys are impact players for the Dolphins.

Let’s dive into Miami’s strategy for defeating the Vikings, specifically focusing on the offense first, and then the defense. At the end, we’ll predict the final outcome. Don’t forget to leave your prediction in the comments section.

When Miami Is On Offense

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming off his first 300-yard game of the 2014 season, but that’s not really as positive as it sounds. Miami attempted 51 passes, with four ending in a sack on Tannehill. It was the ninth consecutive week where Miami threw the ball more than it ran, which is not the type of balance that Bill Lazor promised when he took over the Dolphins offense.

The big positive outcome from Miami’s loss last week against the Patriots was that Lazor seems to finally trust Tannehill to rip some deep shots off in less predictable situations. Too often Miami will go into a soft dink-and-dump attack that has zero or just one deep option on the play. This limits how effective Tannehill and his receivers can be, since there isn't any room to create after the catch.

NFL Game Rewind

Tannehill responded by delivering accurate, catchable passes with impressive consistency. Had Damien Williams and Rishard Matthews finished their end of the play, and if Brian Hartline didn’t lose a deep pass in the sun, the result of the game may have gone differently.

Unfortunately, costly mistakes like those continue to haunt Miami. But that doesn’t mean that the deep passes should stop coming throughout games. Minnesota has two young stars in its secondary in Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes, so it’ll be important for Miami to keep track of both on every play.

Minnesota likes to vary its coverage patterns with some press and off-man, which gives Tannehill some easier pre-snap reads based on how the Vikings line up. With off-man, Miami can hit more passes in the open field that allow the receivers to do more of the work. If it’s press they face, a deep ball or intermediate comeback can create chunk yards in a hurry.

NFL Game Rewind

After a stretch of games against terrific pass-rushers, Minnesota doesn’t have the same caliber of threat as recent Dolphins’ opponents. Defensive ends Everson Griffen and Brian Robison have been disruptive this year, combining for 16.5 sacks, but neither is elite off the edge.

The Vikings have a well-rounded defense that is only really lacking a middle linebacker and free safety. Fortunately for the Dolphins, those are two important spots for run defense and also deep coverage. If Lamar Miller can get to the second level consistently (which he has all season) and get the touches he needs to be effective, he could break some long runs.

When Miami Is On Defense

If there’s an offensive line worse than the Dolphins’ makeshift one, it would be the Vikings' line. Left tackle Matt Kalil has been horrible this season, allowing 12 sacks and 30 additional pressures, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). His grade of -29.4 is the third-worst in the NFL for tackles.

On the right side, Phil Loadholt is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, per Aaron Wilson of National Football Post, so Michael Harris has been filling in. Harris has played decently, allowing two sacks and eight pressures, per PFF. Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon must test both Harris and Kalil often for the Dolphins defense to be as effective as it was in the first half of the season.

The biggest threat the Vikings have in the playmaker department is Charles Johnson, a 6’2”, 215-pound receiver who has bounced around the league despite freakish athleticism. His talent seems to have found a match in Minnesota, as he’s posted 415 yards in limited playing time. Note that 175 of those yards came in the past two weeks, so his role is only growing.

NFL Game Rewind

Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who has played well with a limited cast around him, leads Minnesota’s offensive attack. Bridgewater is normally very accurate, but he is prone to rookie mistakes such as miscommunication with receivers. With injuries to Jerick McKinnon—and Adrian Peterson’s absence—Bridgewater hasn’t been able to rely on a running game.

Miami needs to pressure Bridgewater, or else the Vikings will pick apart Miami’s soft secondary with quick slants and crossing routes. Those are staples for Minnesota, and they are also Miami’s Achilles’ heel.

Looking at the two rosters and how each team has played this season, the Dolphins are the more-talented team. Effort and execution issues, however, negate some of that talent gap. Also, there’s no question the Vikings are a better-coached team after spending time to watch their last few games.

Our prediction is that the Dolphins will pull this victory out in close fashion due to their talent advantage. Miami should come out desperate to redeem itself after some poor performances in the last couple games, and that increased level of execution should give the Dolphins the advantage on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Vikings 21

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting, and analyst for eDraft. 

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