10 Low-Risk, High-Reward MLB Offseason Targets Still on Open Market
Multi-million dollar free-agent signings and blockbuster trades dominate the headlines during the MLB offseason, and understandably so, but there is something to be said for taking a chance on a low-risk, high-reward candidate.
Last season saw the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Casey McGehee, Emilio Bonifacio, Chris Coghlan, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Joe Beimel, Pat Neshek and others all make a significant impact on low-cost, one-year deals.
A handful of intriguing bounce-back candidates have already been signed this winter, led by starters Justin Masterson and Brandon Morrow, but there are still plenty of potential bargains to be had.
So with that in mind, here is a look at 10 potential low-risk, high-reward offseason targets still available on the free-agent market.
RP Mike Adams
1 of 10
2014 Stats: 22 G, 2-1, 6 HLD, 2.89 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 21 K, 18.2 IP
Overview
There was a time not all that long ago when Matt Adams was arguably the best setup man in all of baseball.
From 2008-12, the right-hander posted a 1.98 ERA, 0.990 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 over 297 appearances while pitching in the eighth-inning role for the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers.
That performance made him a hot commodity when he hit the free-agent market prior to the 2013 season, and he wound up signing a two-year, $12 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies to set up high-priced closer Jonathan Papelbon.
However, a torn labrum and the subsequent recovery and follow-up surgery limited him to a total of 50 appearances and 43.2 innings of work in his two seasons in Philadelphia.
His $6 million option was declined at the beginning of the year, and he likely won't sniff this coming season unless it comes in the form of incentives.
That said, if he is back to 100 percent or close to it, he could be this year's Pat Neshek.
SP Brandon Beachy
2 of 10
2014 Stats: Did Not Play
Overview
The Atlanta Braves were left scrambling heading into last season when both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were lost for the season and forced to undergo the second Tommy John surgery of their respective careers.
The Braves opted to non-tender both pitchers at the beginning of the offseason, and while Medlen has landed a two-year, $8.5 million deal with the Kansas City Royals, Beachy is still looking for a new home.
Beachy was on his way to a breakout season in 2012, going 5-5 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in his first 13 starts, but Tommy John surgery brought his season to an abrupt end in June.
The 28-year-old returned to make five starts during the second half of the 2013 season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.033 WHIP, before he was again sidelined with a bone spur in his elbow.
Set to return to the rotation this past season, it was revealed in late March that Beachy would need a second Tommy John surgery, ending his season and perhaps his tenure with the Braves.
According to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation, as many as 10 teams showed interest in Beachy at the winter meetings, and he is expected to land a major league deal with a number of offers already on the table.
SP Chad Billingsley
3 of 10
2014 Stats: Did Not Play
Overview
Three years before they selected Clayton Kershaw, the Los Angeles Dodgers took another high school pitcher in the first round in right-hander Chad Billingsley.
From the time he broke into the league as a 21-year-old in 2006 through his last full season in 2012, Billingsley went a combined 80-61 with a 3.66 ERA.
His 16.7 WAR during that span was good for 33rd-best among all starting pitchers, and he was an NL All-Star in 2009.
However, the 30-year-old made just two starts in 2013 and missed the entire 2014 season, as Tommy John surgery and a partially torn flexor tendon have derailed his career.
The Dodgers bought out his $14 million option for $3 million at the beginning of the offseason, and he immediately became one of the more intriguing buy-low arms on the market.
The only team with clear interest to this point has been the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Jack Magruder of Fox Sports Arizona. New general manager Dave Stewart represented Billingsley when he was an agent, so the tie makes sense.
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SS Everth Cabrera
4 of 10
2014 Stats: 90 G, 357 AB, .232/.272/.300, 13 2B, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 36 R, 18 SB
Overview
While guys like Nelson Cruz and Jhonny Peralta managed to bounce back and post strong numbers after PED suspensions in 2013, the same can't be said for shortstop Everth Cabrera.
After leading the NL with 44 steals in 2012, Cabrera took his game to another level in 2013, hitting .283/.355/.381 with 37 steals to earn a spot on the NL All-Star roster as the San Diego Padres lone representative.
However, his breakout season was cut short when he was suspended 50 games for his ties to the Biogenesis scandal, as the suspension effectively ended his season on Aug. 4.
He returned to his spot at shortstop and atop the lineup this past season, but his offensive numbers plummeted across the board, and by August he had lost his starting job to Alexi Amarista.
The Padres non-tendered the 28-year-old at the beginning of the offseason, as he was projected to earn $2.9 million. With that, he joined a thin class of free agent shortstops led by veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the New York Mets have at least some level of interest in Everth Cabrera, as they look for insurance at shortstop with unproven Wilmer Flores set to man the position.
1B/OF Mike Carp
5 of 10
2014 Stats: 59 G, 126 AB, .175/.289/.230, 5 2B, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 11 R
Overview
Mike Carp was a key offensive piece for the Boston Red Sox during their run to the World Series in 2014, but his production fell off dramatically this past season.
Splitting time between the corner outfield spots and first base, Carp hit .296/.362/.523 with 18 doubles, nine home runs and 43 RBI in 216 at-bats during the 2013 season.
However, those numbers fell to .175/.289/.230 with just six extra-base hits in 126 at-bats this past season, and the Texas Rangers claimed him off waivers in August.
Carp suffered a fractured foot when he was hit by a pitch in June, and that cost him 33 games last season. That injury, coupled with some bad luck, evidenced by his .229 BABIP, certainly played a role in his disappointing performance.
Still, offense is in short supply around the league these days, and Carp is just 28 years old and has some legitimate power potential. At the very least, he should be able to win a bench job on a minor league deal, but there may be someone willing to offer up a guaranteed contract.
RP Jesse Crain
6 of 10
2014 Stats: Did Not Play
Overview
One of the game's most reliable setup men throughout his time in the majors, Jesse Crain was well on his way to the best season of his career in 2013 when injury struck.
The right-hander earned an All-Star nod when he posted a 0.74 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 38 appearances. A shoulder strain kept him from playing in the Midsummer Classic, though, and he wound up sidelined for the rest of the season.
After undergoing surgery on the shoulder, the Houston Astros gave him a one-year, $3.25 million deal last offseason in hopes that he could return to full strength by midseason.
Instead, he missed the entire season, and chances are he will now have to settle for an incentive-laden deal or even a non-roster invite to spring training from someone to prove he's healthy.
With a 3.05 ERA in 532 career appearances, the 33-year-old has an impressive enough track record that someone will take a chance on him bouncing back.
1B/OF Corey Hart
7 of 10
2014 Stats: 68 G, 232 AB, .203/.271/.319, 9 2B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 17 R
Overview
The Seattle Mariners signed Corey Hart to a one-year, $6 million deal last offseason hoping to strike gold on one of the most intriguing high-reward options on the free-agent market, as they looked to fill their need for a right-handed power bat.
Hart had missed the entire 2013 season recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee, but he had been a consistent performer in the middle of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup in the years prior.
In his six full seasons with the Brewers from 2007-12, he hit .277/.335/.495 and averaged 24 home runs, 78 RBI and 13 stolen bases per year while posting a 16.3 WAR.
He was unable to regain that form in Seattle, though, as the injury bug plagued him again and he missed a total of 68 games while dealing with hamstring and knee issues.
One can't help but wonder if the 32-year-old will ever be the same player he was pre-injury, but with right-handed power in short supply and Hart likely to be cheap once again, someone will be willing to roll the dice.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported back in November that a number of teams were interested, but he may have to wait until the days leading up to spring training to find a new home, as chances are he is not anyone's Plan A.
SP/RP Alexi Ogando
8 of 10
2014 Stats: 27 G, 2-3, 7 HLD, 6.84 ERA, 1.920 WHIP, 22 K, 25.0 IP
Overview
A key piece of the Texas Rangers' pennant-winning teams in 2010 and 2011, Alexi Ogando was perhaps the most intriguing of this year's crop of non-tendered players.
A dominant reliever as a rookie in 2010, when he posted a 1.30 ERA and 8.4 K/9 over 44 appearances, Ogando moved to the starting rotation the following season and continued his rapid rise.
He finished the 2011 season at 13-8 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.136 WHIP, earning a spot on the AL All-Star roster and helping ease the loss of Cliff Lee, who departed in free agency after being acquired at the deadline the previous season.
Ogando returned to the bullpen in 2012 and had another strong season with a 3.27 ERA and 9.0 K/9 over 58 appearances, but he has been limited by injuries the past two seasons.
Biceps and shoulder issues cost him a total of 75 games in 2013, and a UCL sprain this past year kept him shelved for a 104-game stretch.
The velocity on his fastball was down from as high as 97 mph in 2012 to 93.9 this past year, according to FanGraphs, but putting the arm issues behind him could certainly help that bounce-back.
It's also worth nothing that his 6.84 ERA this past year was something of a mirage, as it was accompanied by a 3.81 FIP and .386 BABIP, so some positive regression would help as well.
C Geovany Soto
9 of 10
2014 Stats: 24 G, 80 AB, .250/.302/.363, 6 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 8 R
Overview
The catching market behind Russell Martin is somewhat lacking this offseason, with the likes of Nick Hundley, A.J. Pierzynski, David Ross and Geovany Soto making up the best of the remaining backstops in free agency.
Soto probably has the most upside of that group, as he was set to be the everyday catcher for the Texas Rangers last season before undergoing knee surgery during spring training.
That kept him sidelined until the middle of July, with a groin strain shortly after he returned costing him another 15 games, and all told he played just 24 games in 2014.
The 31-year-old did have a .794 OPS with nine home runs in 163 at-bats in 2013, and he averaged 17 home runs and 60 RBI per year during his four seasons as the Chicago Cubs' primary catcher, so he does have some legitimate offensive potential.
It likely won't cost more than a one-year, $3 million deal to sign Soto, and if anyone is going to be this year's Kurt Suzuki it's him.
SP/RP Carlos Villanueva
10 of 10
2014 Stats: 42 G, 5 GS, 4.64 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.391 WHIP, 72 K, 77.2 IP
Overview
Carlos Villanueva turned a solid season as a swingman with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012 into a two-year, $10 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, and the results were mixed during his time with the team.
Injuries forced him into the rotation to open the 2014 campaign, and he turned in a disastrous first month of the season, going 1-5 with a 9.95 ERA in four starts and two relief appearances.
That horrible start would end up overshadowing what was a solid rest of the season, as the right-hander posted a 2.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 58.2 innings of work the rest of the way, pitching almost exclusively in relief.
It was a similar story in 2013, when he went 1-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 15 starts and 6-1 with a 3.03 ERA in 32 relief appearances.
Provided a team signs Villanueva with the intention of using him solely as a reliever, and perhaps an emergency spot starter, he could be a nice addition to someone's bullpen in 2015.
Chances are he'll have to settle for significantly less than $5 million annually, but there is no reason the 31-year-old can't find a major league deal before the offseason is over.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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