
5 Bold Predictions for Vikings' Week 16 Matchup
The Minnesota Vikings (6-8) will take on the Miami Dolphins (7-7) at Sun Life Stadium this Sunday in a Week 16 matchup of teams (essentially) eliminated from playoff contention.
While the Dolphins technically have not been eliminated, they would need to win their final two games and receive a boatload of help from other teams to clinch a playoff berth. As a result, Miami has about as much to play for as Minnesota this weekend—in terms of short-term results.
With that said, this could still prove to be a thrilling contest, as both teams roster plenty of talent and appear to be trending toward playoff contention in the near future.
The most recent matchup between the Vikings and Dolphins came back in 2010, with Miami defeating Minnesota by a final score of 14-10 at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome.
Additionally, the Vikings have not managed to win a game against the Dolphins since Daunte Culpepper was at the helm way back in 2002, according to The Football Database.
Both Minnesota and Miami are coming off disappointing divisional losses and will be looking to finish the 2014 season strong.
Here are five bold predictions for the Vikings' interconference matchup with Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins.
Cameron Wake Will Be Held in Check
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The Dolphins defense ranks seventh overall entering Week 16 and a large part of this top-10 defensive ranking is 2012 first-team All Pro defensive end Cameron Wake.
While Miami has received exceptional production from defensive backs Brent Grimes and Reshad Jones, linebacker Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Olivier Vernon, Wake remains the face of this fairly complete unit.
According to Pro-Football Reference.com, Wake has recorded 9.5 sacks so far this season and 55.5 sacks since becoming a full-time starter back in 2010. Naturally, Wake is widely considered one of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL and commands extra attention from opposing offenses nearly every week.
So if Wake is so dangerous and has been consistently successful for nearly a half decade, how are the Vikings going to contain him this weekend—especially with such lackluster offensive line production?
For starters, Wake rushes exclusively from the left side, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), so he will not have the luxury of matching up with the underwhelming Matt Kalil—who has actually played better in recent weeks, for the record.
Still, Wake will be going against backup tackle Mike Harris—who replaced the injured Phil Loadholt three weeks ago.
Wake hasn't exactly been lighting it up as of late, however. Specifically, Wake has recorded just one of his 9.5 sacks this season over the previous five games, which has likely factored into the Dolphins' 2-3 record over this stretch and their impending elimination from the playoffs.
Harris hasn't been outstanding, but he hasn't exactly been a liability either. Since assuming the starting right tackle role, he has allowed two sacks, one quarterback hit and eight hurries for a grand total of 11 pressures in three starts this season.
Additionally, the Vikings will (and should) grant him some backup in the form of running back Matt Asiata.
Asiata has been a below-average rusher this season, but his blocking has been borderline outstanding. He ranks eighth among qualifying running backs with a 95.3 pass-blocking efficiency rating and has only allowed five quarterback hurries, which includes zero sacks allowed.
It remains entirely possible that Wake busts out of his sack slump this weekend, but these predictions are meant to be bold. Considering the above aspects, Wake could very well prove to be a non-factor (again) this weekend against Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense.
Everson Griffen Will Record Two Sacks
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Like Miami, Minnesota also features an impressive pass-rusher at the defensive end position—and he will leave his mark on this contest.
Everson Griffen has delivered in a big way this year after he signed a massive five-year, $42.5 million contract this offseason to remain a Viking and assume the defensive end spot vacated by Jared Allen's departure. Many were skeptical of Minnesota's decision to hand Griffen so much money—myself included—but he has silenced his doubters in dominating fashion.
Through 14 games this season, Griffen has recorded 12 sacks and 37 total tackles on the road to establishing himself as an elite pass-rusher, as well as an asset when defending the run. In addition, Griffen has registered the seventh-most quarterback pressures (54) and ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency (9.8) among 4-3 defensive ends, according to Pro Football Focus.
Simply put, Griffen has terrorized opposing left tackles in his first season as a full-time starter.
The lucky man responsible for keeping Griffen away from the quarterback this weekend is rookie Ja'Wuan James, who was forced to switch sides following an injury to Miami's starting left tackle Branden Albert.
James, who was selected 19th overall during the 2014 draft, was having himself a pretty consistent and successful rookie season at right tackle before an injury ended Albert's season. Since replacing Albert at left tackle, however, James has had his fair share of struggles.
In five games at left tackle this season, James has been responsible for 18 quarterback pressures—which includes three sacks allowed over the past two games—and has received a Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade of negative 6.0.
Griffen was held without a sack last weekend against the Detroit Lions, but he shouldn't have too much of an issue against the struggling rookie James. With that said, teeing off on Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill a couple of times doesn't seem implausible for Griffen.
Note: It remains possible that injured defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd could return to the Vikings interior defensive line this weekend, which would only boost Griffen's chances of tallying multiple sacks against James and the Dolphins.
Cordarrelle Patterson Will Find the End Zone
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It was roughly three weeks ago when second-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson was demoted from irrelevant to most athletic benchwarmer.
After watching every other wide receiver on the Vikings roster find the end zone over the past three games—including Adam Thielen—it is finally time for Patterson to find whatever it is he lost between the end of last season and now.
Over the past three weekends, Patterson has been on the field for a grand total of 13 offensive snaps and has been targeted just four times.
However, he received the majority of these offensive snaps (9) and targets (3) during last Sunday's game. Additionally, Patterson received the majority of these snaps and targets during the Vikings' final game-deciding drive against the Lions.
Is this a sign that Patterson may be on the field more against the Dolphins this week? Maybe.
Although that question will not be answered until this weekend, Patterson's presence on the field during a crucial drive last Sunday does signal that Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner believe he is improving as a wide receiver.
Patterson and Zimmer recently had a conversation concerning his playing time, which the wide receiver titled a "heart to heart." Patterson briefly outlines this discussion during a press conference from last week:
"Patterson: "Coach Zimmer and I had a heart-to-heart." MORE: http://t.co/bEAKm8mQfz pic.twitter.com/iboDHTyz3g
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 11, 2014"
Regardless of whether Patterson is on the field on offense, he will continue to return kickoffs for the Vikings. Patterson hasn't returned a kick for a touchdown yet this season, but he is still averaging over 25 yards per return.
Last weekend, Patterson gave the Vikings a great opportunity to seal a comeback victory against the Lions, when he brought a late fourth-quarter kickoff back 51 yards.
Patterson is a threat to score every game he plays because of his dynamic kick returning ability, and it certainly seems like he will be seeing the field more often on offense moving forward. With that said, Week 16 seems like a perfect opportunity for him to break out of his funk with a touchdown.
This may be the most bold of this plethora of bold predictions, but there are few people who would argue against Patterson being a "touchdown waiting to happen" when he gets the ball in his hands.
Teddy Bridgewater Will Outplay Ryan Tannehill
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While 11 games is a small sample size, it certainly appears the Vikings have found the franchise quarterback they have been searching for in Teddy Bridgewater. Third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn't looked too bad himself and is beginning to look like "the guy" the Dolphins need to compete with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
These two young quarterbacks will face off for the first time this Sunday, and the results will certainly be interesting.
As mentioned during a previous slide, the Dolphins defense ranks seventh overall this season in total yards allowed. This ranking is largely a product of a formidable pass defense, as Miami's run defense still has plenty of room for improvement.
The Vikings defense—while ranked four slots lower in terms of total yards allowed—is almost a mirror image of the Dolphins defense, as both teams have been excellent in pass defense but falter in run defense.
Additionally, both the Minnesota (21.2) and Miami (21.5) defenses, respectively, have allowed opposing teams to score an average of slightly over 21 points per game this season.
Simply put, Bridgewater and Tannehill will be facing very similarly constructed defenses when the Vikings and Dolphins take the field this weekend.
Bridgewater has been playing very well in recent weeks, recording passer ratings of 120.7, 117.7 and 84.9 over his past three games.
Tannehill, on the other hand, has crumbled a bit recently; he has recorded passer ratings of 77.7, 98.9 and 73.5 over his past three games.
Despite making three critical, game-altering errors (two interceptions and a late-game overthrow), Bridgewater played exceptional against one of the best defensive units in the NFL last weekend. He has shown week-to-week progress in nearly every aspect of his game and should be the more confident quarterback heading in to this weekend.
While all of these recent numbers and defensive statistics will be tossed out the window come game time, it shouldn't come as a surprise if Bridgewater outplays Tannehill.
Tannehill will have home-field advantage, but a quarterback with confidence is a dangerous thing.
Vikings Will Defeat Dolphins
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The Vikings and Dolphins look very comparable statistically and maintain eerily similar roster strengths and flaws.
Both the Minnesota and Miami offenses feature a young quarterback, an underwhelming rushing attack and a wide receiver corps that includes a crafty veteran and a young star on the rise.
Additionally, these two teams feature formidable defensive units consisting of an excellent pass-rushing defensive end, a playmaking linebacker, a safety who is impossible to ignore and a shutdown cornerback—yes, I am referring to Xavier Rhodes as a shutdown cornerback.
There is one major difference, however: heart.
While Mike Zimmer has his team playing its best football of the season, Joe Philbin has seen his team crumble under pressure. Vikings players been playing every game like it may be their last, even if their opponent holds a considerable advantage, and the Dolphins have just looked tired and overwhelmed over the past few weeks.
Both Minnesota and Miami are coming off of disappointing divisional losses, but it was how each team lost that may play a role in this game. Miami was embarrassed 13-41 by New England, and Minnesota failed to execute an efficient game-winning drive, dropping a heartbreaker to Detroit by a score of 14-16.
Bleacher Report's "Expert Consensus Picks" article from this week features a great quote from Mike Tanier, which touches on the passion and drive of these two teams:
"Watching the Dolphins in the second half of the Patriots game, I saw a team that had lost all faith in itself and its coaching staff. These guys are eager to turn the page and try something else; they are just going through the motions with more dignity than the Bears.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are my early playoff risers for 2015 because they have so much young talent, and they love mucking out close games (win or lose). If the Vikings put up a fight until the fourth quarter, they will find that the Dolphins, unlike the Detroit Lions, aren't fighting back.
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Passion, competitive drive and heart are key factors in every sporting event. These factors may not show up in the pregame analysis or statistical leaders columns, but they influence the outcome of every game—and these factors will matter even more than usual this Sunday.
My Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Dolphins 17
The Dolphins rank 12th in points per game (23.4), 20th in passing yards (224.1), 14th in rushing yards (113.1), 15th in points allowed per game (21.5), fourth in opponent passing yards (209.2) and 22nd in opponent rushing yards (122.4).
The Vikings rank 24th in points per game (19.8), 27th in passing yards (201.1), 15th in rushing yards (111.7), 12th in points allowed per game (21.2) sixth in opponent passing yards (216) and 23rd in opponent rushing yards (123.9).
While Minnesota ranks behind Miami in all but one of the above listed categories, the strengths and flaws of these two teams are extremely similar statistically.
In a battle between two similar teams, I will always take the team playing with more confidence, more passion and a winning attitude. In this contest, that team is the Minnesota Vikings.
Advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required) unless otherwise noted.
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