Stay-or-Go Advice for Top Eligible NFL Draft QB Prospects
‘Tis the season.
Not for holiday shopping and traditions.
Or hanging out with family.
Nope. The beginning of college football’s postseason means that college football’s speculation season has also begun. If a prominent player is draft-eligible and hasn’t declared his intentions to leave for the NFL or stay for another season of college, chances are he’ll be hounded incessantly until he does.
That speculation will be intense for a number of college signal-callers who could make the jump to the next level. While some quarterbacks have already made their decisions (Michigan State’s Connor Cook announced Tuesday that he’ll return next fall), the fate of others is less defined.
Here’s a look at underclassman quarterbacks who are considering the leap. We’ll offer our advice on what their ultimate choice should be, as well.
TCU QB Trevone Boykin
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2014 Stats: 3,714 yards, 30 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
One of the most intriguing players of 2014 was TCU junior quarterback Trevone Boykin.
In previous seasons, Boykin bounced between quarterback and wide receiver, but he found a home as the Horned Frogs’ starting quarterback this year. He was the perfect triggerman for TCU’s new Air Raid offense, leading the charge from a 4-8 record to an 11-1 mark that left the Frogs just outside of the College Football Playoff.
Boykin was a dual threat, throwing for more than 3,700 yards and adding 642 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He even harkened back to his receiver days, catching a 55-yard touchdown pass.
At 6’2”, 205 pounds, he’s a bit small for a traditional NFL quarterback but has drawn comparisons to Seattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson, per NFL.com's Gil Brandt.
Boykin has a future in the NFL but could use another year to polish his game, a year where he’d be a likely preseason Heisman Trophy favorite. The smart call would be to return to TCU for his senior season and improve his professional stock.
UCLA QB Brett Hundley
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2014 Stats: 3,019 yards, 21 touchdowns, five interceptions.
Officially, there’s no decision here. UCLA coach Jim Mora has announced that junior quarterback Brett Hundley will play his final collegiate game in the Alamo Bowl against Kansas State and declare for the NFL draft. But is that a smart decision?
Some observers believe Hundley could improve his pocket presence and would really benefit from another season of college football, including Charles Davis of NFL.com.
This fall, Hundley’s stats were only marginally better than a year ago. He threw for 3,019 yards with 21 touchdowns against five interceptions. A year ago, he threw for 3,071 yards with 24 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He is completing 70.4 percent of his passes as opposed to 67.2 percent in 2013.
His rushing stats are down 200 yards from a year ago (548 yards this fall as opposed to 748 in 2013), but Hundley remains a mobile quarterback who can beat teams in multiple ways.
He is expected to begin his NFL career, but Hundley could certainly improve his draft stock by playing his senior season.
Southern California QB Cody Kessler
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2014 Stats: 3,505 yards, 36 touchdowns, four interceptions
While UCLA’s Brett Hundley has received plenty of attention for his NFL plans, across town, his rival has quietly had an excellent season. Southern California junior quarterback Cody Kessler took a step forward this fall, improving every passing stat while leading the Trojans to an 8-4 record.
Kessler had six 300-yard-passing games and showed a strong arm while leading a USC offense that was full of talented players. He has asked the NFL draft advisory committee for a reading on his draft stock, per NFL.com's Mike Huguenin, but coming back could be smart for the 6’1”, 210-pound prospect.
He is a talented athlete, but if Hundley and Marcus Mariota declare, Kessler would be one of the top returning quarterbacks in the Pac-12 and nationally.
Returning for his senior season would be a smart move for both Kessler and the Trojans’ program as a whole.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
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2014 Stats: 3,783 yards, 38 touchdowns, two interceptions
Last winter, Marcus Mariota had a legitimate decision. Did he return for another season of college football after throwing for 3,665 yards with 31 touchdowns against four interceptions in what was ultimately a disappointing season for his Oregon football team?
The answer was yes. And it was the right choice.
Mariota got even better this fall, throwing for nearly 3,800 yards and tossing 38 touchdowns against two interceptions while leading the Ducks to the College Football Playoff and handily winning the Heisman Trophy.
Mariota did a little of everything, moving well in the pocket, throwing on the run and adding 669 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns. Oregon’s only loss came at home to Arizona, and the Ducks avenged that loss with a 51-13 Pac-12 Championship rout. Now, they have a chance to chase a national championship.
Does Mariota have a legit stay-or-go decision this time around?
Not really. No matter what happens in the College Football Playoff, Mariota has little left to accomplish in the college game. He’s the likely No.1 pick in the 2015 NFL draft, and it would be silly not to make the leap.
Mariota told The Oregonian's Andrew Greif that he and his mother, father and brother would decide his future soon after Oregon's final game this season.
"That's it, that's all I'm going to listen to," Mariota said. "Obviously (offensive coordinator Scott Frost and head coach Mark Helfrich) will have a little input, but the majority of it will come from my family. Two or three days, whatever time is needed to make that decision."
Ohio State QB Braxton Miller
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2014 Stats: Redshirted
Braxton Miller’s presence on this list might seem funny. After all, the Ohio State star didn’t play a single down this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in August that forced him into a redshirt campaign.
But consider what happened while Miller was out.
Before suffering a broken ankle in the regular-season finale, redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett developed into a star, leading the Buckeyes’ charge for a College Football Playoff bid and becoming a Heisman Trophy candidate in the process.
Miller had an excellent season in 2013, throwing for 2,094 yards and 20 touchdowns against seven interceptions while rushing for 1,068 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s why OSU coach Urban Meyer initially said Miller would step right back into his starting job when he was healthy.
Now, however, Meyer says that, at the very least, there’ll be a competition for the Buckeyes’ starting role. Miller has graduated and could take advantage of an NCAA rule which allows players to transfer for their final season of eligibility, which has led to plenty of speculation, per NFL.com's Mike Huguenin.
Or could he switch positions? Or declare for the NFL draft?
It’s clear that Miller has plenty to think about. But it would behoove him to show pro scouts he is healthy, no matter if he winds up at quarterback or tailback at the next level, rather than risking his stock this spring.
Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott
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2014 Stats: 2,996 yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
If you’re looking for a key figure in Mississippi State’s rise from SEC West mediocrity to national prominence and a 10-2 record, look no further than Dak Prescott.
The Bulldogs’ junior quarterback made a leap to become a star this fall, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. That’s a quantum leap from 2013, when he threw for 1,940 yards with 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions in an injury-plagued campaign.
Prescott also ran for 939 yards with 13 touchdowns and drew favorable comparisons to former Florida star Tim Tebow for his blend of passing and running skills. At 6’2”, 235 pounds, Prescott has the toughness to take every-down punishment at the next level.
He has asked the NFL draft advisory committee for an evaluation of his status, per Michael Bonner of The (Jackson) Clarion-Ledger. Prescott has declined comment on his thought process but will graduate this week and told Sports Illustrated earlier this season that he’d consider leaving if he received a draft grade in the third round or higher.
"I'm just worrying about graduating right now," he told Bonner. "I'll decide (about the NFL) later."
Prescott struggled at times as a passer, throwing for 290 yards but with three interceptions in a loss at Alabama. He could use another season in college to polish his game, although it’s not clear if he’ll use it.
Florida State QB Jameis Winston
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2014 Stats: 3,559 yards, 24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions.
Suggesting it has been an eventful 2014 for Jameis Winston would be a massive understatement.
The 2013 Heisman Trophy winner has been dogged by controversy seemingly at every turn in Florida State’s season. He earned a one-game suspension for yelling a vulgarity on FSU’s campus, and the specter of a 2012 sexual assault allegation by a fellow FSU student still follows him. He recently participated in a student-conduct hearing connected to the charges and could face sanctions from Florida State that include expulsion, although he would be allowed to appeal.
On the field, Winston’s play has slipped.
A year ago, he threw for 4,057 yards with 40 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Entering the College Football Playoff semifinal against Oregon, he has thrown 24 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.
That said, Winston remains a huge reason why FSU is 13-0 and in the playoff. He led three comebacks from double-digit deficits on the road and consistently played well when his team needed him most.
However, if Florida State fans want to get a look at Winston in a Seminole uniform, they better not blink. Given the white-hot spotlight on his off-field actions and the charges surrounding him, it’d be a stunner if Winston didn’t declare for the NFL draft as a likely first-round selection.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
