Updated Chances for Cole Hamels' Suitors, Potential Trade Packages to Land Him
The Phillies are "trying to blow up" their roster, per Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said, "We’re open to talk about anybody.” If they're going to talk about anybody, it's pretty easy to find things to like about Cole Hamels:
1. He'll be 31 years old at the start of spring training and coming off the second-best FIP of his career (3.07).
2. He's owed $94 million over the next four years with a $20 million team option, $24 million vesting option and a $6 million buyout for 2019. Considering the contract Jon Lester just signed (six years, $155 million) and the deal Max Scherzer is looking for (around $200 million, according to Fox Sports via MLB Trade Rumors), Hamels is clearly the best value of the bunch.
3. He's a proven postseason winner: 3.09 career ERA in 13 playoff starts including, the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP awards.
What is it going to take to acquire Hamels? CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury has the latest:
"Industry sources say the Phils are looking for at least three top prospects, two that can play right now and another that isn’t far away. The Cubs and Red Sox are two known suitors and both have the farm systems to get a deal done — if they are willing to meet the Phillies’ rightfully high asking price.
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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. spoke with Bob Nightengale of USA Today about what Hamels is thinking, and how he expects the market to develop:
"It's no secret that the free agent market will kind of dictate where this thing goes, I think. Particularly in our situation because it's not a deep free agent market. But at some point the dominoes will start to fall and then we'll see where it takes us.
What we'll try to do is assess what's the right value for the player. And if we get the right value that we're comfortable with, we'll move. And if we don't, we won't.
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It's hard to rely on Amaro doing the right thing because he doesn't do it very often, but it's only a matter of time before Hamels is moved. Here are the top-six suitors for the Phillies' ace, the updated odds of each team landing him and a potential package each team could put together to acquire him (purely my own speculation).
Sleeper: Houston Astros
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After losing 90 or more games for the fourth consecutive season, the Astros made a few curious signings for a team so far from contention by bringing in Luke Gregerson, Jed Lowrie and Pat Neshek on multi-year deals.
It was even more curious that Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe mentioned the Astros as a sleeper for Phillies' ace Cole Hamels, but considering their aggressive nature this offseason, it'd be foolish to rule them out.
With years of top-draft picks permeated throughout their minor-league system, they have the top prospects necessary to satisfy Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s needs. Despite setbacks for both 2012 No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa and 2013 No.1 overall pick Mark Appel, both still have very bright futures and could headline a potential deal. They acquired the sixth-overall pick of the 2013 draft, Colin Morin, in a trade deadline deal with the Marlins, and after a solid debut at Double-A, he isn't more than a year or two away from his MLB debut.
The pieces are all there, it just depends on whether the teams on the next few slides can put together a better offer.
Chance: 5 percent
Potential Trade Package: Jon Singleton, Colin Morin, low level pitching prospect
Contender: Texas Rangers
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The last time the Texas Rangers had a worse winning percentage than what they ended with in 2014 (.414%) was nearly 30 years ago when they finished 62-99 (.385) in 1985.
To be fair, they set a record for using the most players in MLB history due to all their injuries, but to say they have some holes to fill would be an understatement.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe listed the Rangers as a team that was interested in Cole Hamels, and they have one of the top farm systems in baseball to be able to pry him away. While I doubt Futures Game MVP Joey Gallo is on the table, a package centered around Luis Sardinas, who could replace Jimmy Rollins, outfielder Nomar Mazara and a potential top of the rotation arm such as Jake Thompson, who both fared well in their brief Double-A debuts this season, could fit the Phillies' demands. For more information on some of their top prospects, you can click here.
Getting Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Prince Fielder (among others) back and healthy for a full season will most definitely help the Rangers in 2015. Adding Cole Hamels to that mix would put them back in contention.
Chance: 15 percent
Potential Trade Package: Luis Sardinas, Nomar Mazara, Jake Thompson
Contender: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The way Andrew Friedman has been going this offseason, it's hard to predict just about anything he can or will do.
After dealing Matt Kemp, acquiring Jimmy Rollins (according to ESPN) and Howie Kendrick and adding Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (via MLB Trade Rumors) to a staff that already includes Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, one would think that he would be finished with the starting rotation. The L.A. Times doesn't expect any other moves, and with any other general manager, I'd agree, but Friedman is the wild card that leaves every option open:
"They still might not be done. One thing we’ve learned during the short reign of Andrew Friedman, don’t rule anything out. That rotation is pretty fragile – Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu were all sidelined by injury last season – so some kind of swing man may yet be coming. Certainly, there’s no way he’s going to count on this starting five being healthy all season.
But it doesn’t appear it will be a Scherzer. Not someone to get the heart racing. The Dodgers subtracted superstars Hanley Ramirez and Kemp. And then added some very good, or potentially good, parts and new depth.
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Coming from the Tampa Bay Rays, Friedman has never had this type of money to work with before. Is it possible that the reported signing of the injury-prone Anderson was made for him to be an insurance policy? Before that deal was reported, CSN Philly's Corey Seidman thought the Dodgers were positioning themselves to acquire Hamels:
"What this series of moves does for L.A. is builds flexibility — the kind that would allow the Dodgers to pursue a high-priced free agent like Max Scherzer or trade for a whale like Cole Hamels.
[...]
The Dodgers still have some intriguing prospects beyond Seager and Pederson — lefty Julio Urias, righty Zach Lee, infielder Alex Guerrero — but if you're the Phillies and you're seeking the ultimate return for Hamels, those are the potential future stars you target.
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Friedman seemingly has endless tricks up his sleeve, and even if he ever says he's done dealing, I don't think I'd believe him. Like Seidmen mentioned, Pederson and Seager will likely be staying put, I also believe that Urias will not be traded, but with prospects such as Zach Lee and 27-year-old Alexander Guerrero being close to (if not already) major league ready, and players such as Scott Van Slyke, who could thrive in a full-time role, these teams match up for a potential deal.
Chance: 20 percent
Potential Trade Package: Zach Lee, Alexander Guerrero, low level pitching prospect such as Chris Anderson
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Contender: Chicago Cubs
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Does Theo Epstein have one more big move up his sleeve?
After making a multitude of deals this offseason, headlined by the signing of Jon Lester and acquiring 2014 All-Star catcher Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Chicago Cubs still have a couple more holes to fill in their rotation.
After claiming Cole Hamels on revocable waivers this past summer and showing interest in him early this winter, per CBS Sports, is there a better fit out there?
Jake Arrieta had a breakout season last year. While his peripherals suggest it was not a fluke, other than him and Jon Lester, they do not have much front-of-the-rotation material. Guys like Travis Wood, Kyle Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada are important for 162-game seasons, but for the Cubs to become serious contenders, they need another ace-caliber arm.
As for their hitting, they have as great a surplus as any team in the league, if not the greatest. The Cubs' prospect pool is absolutely loaded, including players such as Arismendy Alcantara, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez that graduated to the majors last season. They have top prospects Addison Russell, Kris Bryant and this year's fourth overall pick Kyle Schwarber, 2012 sixth-overall pick Albert Almora, who will all need playing time sooner rather than later, possibly 2015 for both Russell and Bryant.
Per CBS Sports, the Cubs are telling people that Starlin Castro is not available, so they have their long-term answer at shortstop. After trading away Jimmy Rollins, the Cubs could deal one from their plethora of prospects to fill a need in their rotation.
Chance: 20 percent
Potential trade package: One of Addison Russell (B/R's top-prospect writer piece here) or Javier Baez, Billy McKinney
Favorite: Boston Red Sox
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After finishing 23rd in team ERA (4.01) last season, Ben Cherington has been working the phones all offseason to acquire starting pitching, and he's been on a roll.
The Boston Red Sox acquired Wade Miley from the Arizona Diamondbacks, Rick Porcello from the Detroit Tigers and signed Justin Masterson via free agency. Add those three to holdovers Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly from last season, and seemingly, the Red Sox have their rotation set. However, as Bleacher Report's Jacob Shafer pointed out, they still need Cole Hamels to form a contending rotation and Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is reporting the Red Sox have interest in him.
What would Hamels cost Boston in trade chips? CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury reports it won't be cheap:
"The Red Sox, desperate for starting pitching, have long been viewed as the Phillies’ best potential trade partner for Hamels and their failure to sign Lester turns up the pressure. The Red Sox have the players to get Hamels, but sources say they are reluctant to trade catcher Blake Swihart, pitcher Henry Owens, outfielder/second baseman Mookie Betts and infielder Xander Bogaerts. According to sources, the Phillies would have to have one of these players to part with Hamels. The Phillies are particularly high on Swihart.
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Granted, Salisbury's report was written before the Red Sox signed Masterson and acquired Miley, but would trading Swihart be that tough? With Christian Vazquez already in the fold and getting rave reviews from David Ortiz, who spoke with The Boston Herald and even potential Hall of Famer Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, who compared Vazquez to Yadier Molina, they seemingly already have their future behind the plate locked up.
Where does Will Middlebrooks fit after signing Pablo Sandoval? Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. play after signing Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo and the development of Mookie Betts? A package of Swihart, Middlebrooks and Bradley Jr. could overwhelm Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro and bring Cole Hamels to Boston.
Chance: 30 percent
Potential Trade Package: Blake Swihart, Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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Think they're interested in a proven, postseason winning left-handed pitcher?
The Giants were reportedly willing to spend $168 million over seven years on Jon Lester before he ultimately signed with the Chicago Cubs, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. They were willing to spend $95 million on Pablo Sandoval before he signed with the Boston Red Sox, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. It's clear that San Francisco has money to spend and wants to do it this offseason.
There are other viable targets where they can spend this money. James Shields, formerly of the Kansas City Royals, is available, and Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported the Giants are now "going hard" after him. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported during the Lester sweepstakes that if they lost out on him, they were working on a number of trades as fallback possibilities.
The Giants haven't made their big move yet, and they've proven they want to but haven't been able to secure anyone via free agency. Their farm system has top prospects that will interest the Phillies such as RHP Kyle Crick and postseason stud Joe Panik, who could allow the Phillies to trade away Chase Utley and start a legitimate rebuild. Five controllable years of Panik, a potential ace in Crick and another member of the Giants' top 10 prospects, and I don't think the Phillies say no.
Would the Giants say yes?
Chance: 10 percent
Potential Trade Package: Joe Panik, Kyle Crick, low-level prospect
To talk baseball or follow the latest rumors, check in with me on Twitter: @ZPetersel.
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