8 Impact MLB Deals That Will Go Down Before the New Year
After all the wheeling and dealing they've already done this winter, Major League Baseball executives can be forgiven if they feel like taking the rest of 2014 off.
But they're not going to do that, of course. There are still deals to be made, and the two weeks from now until the arrival of 2015 is plenty of time in which to make them.
We're going to take a whack at predicting eight impact deals—four free-agent signings and four trades—that will go down before 2015 arrives. Here's a disclaimer that Max Scherzer, a likely January signee, is not among them, but rest assured that you'll recognize each name you're about to come across.
Start the show whenever you're ready.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked. Salary arbitration projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.
Signing: Nori Aoki to the Cincinnati Reds
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Nori Aoki has only been about a league-average hitter over the last two seasons, but he's arguably the best hitter left on a free-agent market that has already been picked clean.
The two most obvious fits for Aoki's services at this point are the corner outfield-needy Seattle Mariners and the Cincinnati Reds, but it's easier to imagine the Reds being more desperate for him.
As C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer noted, the Reds are quickly running out of free-agent options to fill their left field hole. So much so that their choices may boil down to signing Aoki or rolling the dice on an outfielder from the bottom of the barrel (Nate Schierholtz, Chris Denorfia, et al).
And really, that should be no choice at all.
After clearing a projected $13.5 million in arbitration dollars with the trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, the Reds can afford Aoki. He would also fit well with them, as his contact-oriented style would be useful behind Billy Hamilton, and his soon-to-be 33-year-old legs would probably be appreciate playing in Great American Ballpark's relatively small left field.
With Aoki likely short on suitors at this point, I'd expect him to join the Reds on a two-year deal in the $16-18 million range.
Signing: Asdrubal Cabrera to the Toronto Blue Jays
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Anybody who needs a second baseman should be looking in Asdrubal Cabrera's direction.
Though Cabrera has spent most of his career at shortstop and there were whispers that the San Francisco Giants were interested in him as a third baseman, Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News reported that Cabrera told the Giants he prefers to stay at second base.
So the question becomes who needs a second baseman. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca pointed out, one answer is the Blue Jays:
"#BlueJays would look at short-term FA options at 2B. That means 1-3 years. Or AA could stay put & spend on relief.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) December 10, 2014"
The Blue Jays made major additions to their lineup by signing Russell Martin and trading for Josh Donaldson, but second base is still a major area of weakness. In fact, FanGraphs has the Blue Jays projected to get less WAR from the position in 2015 than any other team.
Cabrera would help fix that. His defense may be suspect, but the .697 OPS he has over the last two seasons is actually around average for a second baseman these days.
The Blue Jays already have a lot of money committed to 2015. But if it means keeping pace with the reloaded Boston Red Sox, I can see them giving Cabrera a Jed Lowrie-esque three-year, $20 million deal.
Signing: Colby Rasmus to the Baltimore Orioles
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Colby Rasmus may be coming off a down year, but his youth and powerful left-handed bat make him an attractive option for a one-year pillow contract.
You know, sort of like the deal Nelson Cruz signed with the Baltimore Orioles last winter. Going off a report from Peter Gammons, the O's may have another one of those in store for Rasmus:
"Orioles being pushed to take Colby Rasmus on a one year deal
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) December 14, 2014"
The Orioles can afford Rasmus after (albeit unwillingly) shedding Cruz and Nick Markakis from their payroll, and there's a fit for him in either left or right field.
Mind you, Rasmus would probably prefer to rebuild his value by playing center field in 2015. But the trade-off for him where the Orioles are concerned is the chance to swing it at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which was one of the five most friendly parks to left-handed home run hitters in 2015.
The interest here should be mutual, and a one-year, $12 million deal would work fine for both sides.
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Signing: James Shields to the San Francisco Giants
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Though Max Scherzer is unlikely to sign before the new year, it will be a surprise if James Shields doesn't.
When ESPN.com's Jayson Stark polled executives and agents before the winter meetings, their thinking was that Shields would sign shortly after Jon Lester. With Lester's deal with the Chicago Cubs becoming official this week, the countdown to Shields finding a deal is officially on.
There are a number of clubs that Shields fits well with, but a report from Pavlovic indicates that the Giants could be the big aggressor:
"Giants are focused on James Shields right now, still trying to add frontline pitcher to rotation.
— Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) December 11, 2014"
That the Giants made spirited runs at re-signing Pablo Sandoval and signing Lester makes it clear that they have a big pile of money they're willing to spend. Shields would be a fine place to put that money, and he could jump at the chance to join a winning franchise and to pitch regularly at AT&T Park.
Something like four years and $90 million with an option would be fair for Shields. But after missing out on Sandoval and Lester, it wouldn't be a shock if the Giants went to five years and over $100 million.
Trade: Wil Myers to the San Diego Padres
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Maybe this one's a little too obvious. But since it hasn't happened yet...Welp, it's fair game.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com was the first to report Tuesday night that the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres are discussing a trade centered around young right fielder Wil Myers. And according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, it's just a matter of time before it's a done deal:
"Sources: Significant optimism that Wil Myers to San Diego gets done. Said to be very close. @Ken_Rosenthal first mentioned the trade talks.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2014"
That the Padres would be interested in dealing for Myers is no big surprise.
Even after agreeing to a trade for Matt Kemp, their offense still needed bats. The .831 OPS Myers had as a rookie in 2013 is evidence that he has a good one. And what makes Myers doubly attractive for the Padres is that, unlike Justin Upton, he's controllable through 2019.
Why the Rays would be willing to deal a guy like that is somewhat mysterious but also defensible. Myers is coming off a brutal 2014 season, so acquiring either young pitchers or even stud catching prospect Austin Hedges for him would actually be a job well done.
Whatever the case, the countdown to this trade is on.
Trade: Marlon Byrd to the Baltimore Orioles
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While all eyes are on Cole Hamels (more on him in a moment), one of the better trade chips the Philadelphia Phillies have to aid their rebuild is Marlon Byrd.
As for where Byrd fits, the obvious answer is in Baltimore. According to Rosenthal, both clubs are evidently aware of this:
"Sources: #Orioles met with #Phillies today to discuss Marlon Byrd.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2014"
The Orioles lost an awful lot of right-handed power when they lost Cruz to the Seattle Mariners. If they add Byrd, who's hit 49 homers over the last two seasons, they'll be regaining quite a bit of that power.
Where things get tricky is with the potential trade package. The buzz surrounding the Phillies has indicated that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has put high values on all his assets, and Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports recently reported that Amaro tried to unload Ryan Howard on the Orioles in a Byrd deal.
But if Amaro comes to his senses, he'll realize that the Orioles have something he needs. The Phillies need to flesh out their young pitching depth outside of Aaron Nola, and the Orioles have a good collection of pitching prospects even beyond Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey.
I can see the Orioles parting with a couple of those, and that's likely the best the Phillies can do for Byrd.
Trade: Mark Trumbo to the Seattle Mariners
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Could Mark Trumbo be on the move for the second time in as many winters?
It's a good guess he will be. Trumbo has a lot of right-handed power, but it became expendable when the Arizona Diamondbacks picked up Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas and his right-hander power.
As for the Mariners, they're an educated guess stemming from a report from ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that the Mariners are "closing in" on a trade for a hitter and his subsequent speculation:
"My sense is it's a RH bat and someone who hasn't been mentioned in a ton of #mariners speculation. That's all I got.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 17, 2014"
What makes Trumbo a solid educated guess is that he hasn't been mentioned in many Mariners rumors, but he hasn't gone completely unmentioned either. Rosenthal reported last week that the Mariners were "monitoring" his situation, but not much has been said since then.
A deal between the Mariners and Diamondbacks for Trumbo could see one of Seattle's two controllable shortstops (Brad Miller and Chris Taylor) heading to Arizona. If so, Chris Owings could be moved to second base, Aaron Hill could be moved to third base and Tomas could be moved to left field.
As for Trumbo, he'd fill the Mariners' need for a right fielder and would combine with Nelson Cruz to give the Mariners quite a lot of right-handed power.
Trade: Cole Hamels to the Boston Red Sox
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Ask Amaro about Cole Hamels, and he'll probably tell you that he doesn't have to move the star left-hander this winter. Assuming he feels the same way now as he did a month ago, anyway.
"Cole is one of those guys in particular who can be a bridge to the future as well, because of the length of the contract, because of the quality of the pitcher," Amaro told MLB Network Radio, via Justin Klugh of Philly.com. "There's no need to go out and move him, there's no rush to go out and move him."
Amaro's not necessarily wrong in saying as much. But as far as opportunities go, he may never get a better one to deal Hamels than the one he has now.
Of the teams Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says are interested in Hamels, none is a better fit than the Red Sox. They have prospects, cash and, especially if they miss on Shields, the need for a No. 1 starter.
For the Phillies, the ideal trade probably involves Boston taking on all of the $100 million Hamels is still owed while also parting with Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens and/or Blake Swihart. The more likely compromise involves the Red Sox taking on most of the money and building a trade package around Deven Marrero and/or Eduardo Rodriguez.
The Phillies aren't going to be able to do any better than that. And though the Red Sox would be paying a huge price, it would beat spending $200 million on Max Scherzer's 30s.
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