Serie A: Handicapping Italy's Champions League and Europa League Draws
On Monday, the European knockout rounds officially began for the six Serie A clubs that are still alive in the Champions League and Europa League.
After months of qualifying and group-stage play, Serie A is the only league in Europe to have all of its European representatives still active. For a country desperate to regain its place in the UEFA coefficient rankings, it's vital that the majority of those six teams get deep into their respective competitions.
In the Champions League, Juventus got a draw that avoided the toughest competition and gave them a good chance to go through. In the Europa League, all five teams drew teams that are good matches.
Many of those ties could go either way.
How do Italy's reps stack up against their competition? Today we're going to look at each tie and figure it out.
All of these evaluations are based on how the teams involved look right now. It is freely conceded that changes in form or fitness for any team could dramatically change how the tie looks down the line.
That being said, let us take a closer look at what Serie A needs to do to get deeper into Europe.
Juventus vs. Borussia Dortmund
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When Juve's name was pulled out of the pot, their fans were likely saying novenas that neither Bayern Munich nor Real Madrid, both of whom were still lurking in the draw, would be assigned as their opponent.
That prayer must have worked because instead of the main heavyweights, the Bianconeri got the comparatively soft draw of Borussia Dortmund.
There is nostalgia in this tie. Juve and BVB played each other seven times in European competition during the 1990s, and those meetings produced some memorable matches.
It started with the 1993 UEFA Cup final, a two-legged affair that saw the Bianconeri absolutely hammer the Germans 6-1 on aggregate. Two years later, the teams met in the semifinal of the same competition, with Juve advancing 4-3 on aggregate.
That winter the teams were drawn in the same Champions League group. Both teams pipped each other away from home. Juve won the group and eventually the title.
The final, classic matchup came two years later in the Champions League final. Karl-Heinz Riedle put Dortmund up 2-0 within 34 minutes, but an outrageous backheel goal by Alessandro Del Piero made it a game again.
Six minutes later, though, substitute Lars Ricken chipped Angelo Peruzzi with his first touch of the game to ice it, giving the Germans their first title.
The present-day tie is a tough one to call. Juve has maintained its good form domestically but has continued to struggle to translate their dominance on the peninsula to the continent. They had to scramble in the second half of the group stage to ensure they didn't crash out for the second straight year.
BVB has had a great Champions League, losing only once to Arsenal at the Emirates, but domestic competition has been a horror. A 4-2-9 record has landed them in 16th place. If the season ended today, Dortmund would be playing for their lives in the relegation playoffs.
Dortmund's horror season has had much to do with injuries. Stars Marco Reus, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Mats Hummels have all missed significant time. Armenian playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan has just been ruled out for at least six weeks after injuring his hamstring in Saturday's 1-0 loss to Hertha Berlin.
If the injury nightmare continues, Jurgen Klopp will be scraping the bottom of the barrel as the round of 16 approaches. Depending on how it affects the team's league play up to that point, BVB may have the more pressing matter of a real relegation fight to contend with when they land in Turin.
With the obvious caveat that there's no knowing what the future holds, Juve looks to come into the tie hugely healthy by comparison. By the time February rolls around, they may even have long-term absentees Martin Caceres and Andrea Barzagli back on the field.
Indeed, as it stands at this moment, form and fitness both favor the Bianconeri.
There is also history to consider. The Westfalenstadion has not produced happy memories for the home fans when Italian opposition is concerned. The team is only 5-4-4 all-time at home against Italian clubs.
Three of those losses have come at the hands of Juventus, who are perfect in their three games in Westphalia.
The Westfalenstadion was also the setting for two minutes of 2006 that German soccer fans would rather forget.
Much can change between now and February, but at the moment Juventus is probably the favorite—albeit a slight one—in this tie.
Roma vs. Feyenoord
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Roma's exit from the Champions League was disappointing. How they fare in Europe's secondary competition will be a matter of how seriously they take it.
With the Champions League now gone, it is conceivable that Rudi Garcia will put the Europa League on the back burner and focus on dethroning Juventus in Serie A.
That might be a mistake for several reasons. The first is the detriment to the Italian game in general. The second—and more immediate to Roma–is that a deeper run into the Europa would raise their club coefficient—and maybe buy them a gentler draw in next year's Champions League.
They've been drawn against Dutch side Feyenoord. Fourth in the Eredivisie this season, the Rotterdam club topped a group that also included Rijeka, Standard Liege and defending champions Sevilla.
Manager Fred Rutten has developed a team that likes to play with possession. That could play right into Garcia's hands.
With players such as Adem Ljajic, Juan Iturbe and Gervinho, Roma is devastating on the counter. Last year Juventus beat them by letting them control possession, mounting an organized defense and counterattacking themselves.
The Europa may turn into a proving ground for some of Roma's younger players, but players such as Mattia Destro and Iturbe may be able to get full runs, and these players are good enough to beat the opposition they're drawn against.
This one really comes down to how seriously Garcia takes the tournament. If he goes for it, Roma is talented enough to brush Feyenoord aside and move to the round of 16. If he mails it in and throws his full force against Juve in the league, they could fall quickly.
Inter vs. Celtic
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Like Juve's tie with Borussia Dortmund, Inter's matchup against Celtic is steeped in history.
In 1967, the Hoops effectively ended the era of La Grande Inter with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory in the European Cup final. It was the first time a British team had won the European Cup and the only time the Scottish team has ever reigned supreme over European soccer.
Right now Inter is a team in crisis. Walter Mazzarri, considered a savior less than a season and a half ago, is unemployed. Roberto Mancini, the man who started the run of success that eventually led to Jose Mourinho's treble, is now at the helm.
The culture shock between Mancini's four-man defensive system and Mazzarri's 3-5-2 is going to be severe, especially when the change is made in-season.
Monday's victory over Chievo is the first the Nerazzurri have managed since October—a run that included a miserable 2-0 loss to bottom side Parma and a limp 2-1 loss to Udinese over the weekend.
The biggest problem for Inter has been the massive regression of some of their more important players. Rodrigo Palacio has failed to score a goal this season after potting 17 a year ago. Andrea Ranocchia—recently handed the captain's armband—has been subject to some mind-boggling defensive errors.
It's entirely possible that the team can pull things together under Mancini before the round of the 32 begins in February, but at the moment it's hard to see Celtic losing this tie against a team in turmoil if they keep their composure and play for it.
Neither of those are sure things. Celtic had looked like they crashed out of the Champions League in embarrassing fashion in the third qualifying round against Legia Warsaw, only to be saved after they were awarded a 3-0 forfeit when the Polish side fielded an ineligible player and advanced on away goals.
Gifted with a second chance in the playoff round, they drew 1-1 against Maribor in Slovenia only to spit the bit at home, losing 1-0 and dropping to the Europa League.
The group stage saw top players like Anthony Stokes and John Guidetti give way to the likes of Stefan Scepovic. It may have cost them the group, especially in a 3-1 home loss to Red Bull Salzburg.
On the other hand, Celtic may be able to shift their focus back towards the continent if they manage to build the lead at the top of the Scottish Premier League that they have been so accustomed to in the absence of Rangers. They currently lead Inverness by six points, but by February the title could be a foregone conclusion.
As things are currently constituted, Inter is in such disarray that it's hard to see the Italians winning this tie. Things can obviously change in two months, but as things currently stand, Celtic probably has the edge here.
Fiorentina vs. Tottenham Hotspur
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Fiorentina has been given one of the toughest tests available in the draw in Tottenham Hotspur.
La Viola have struggled in Serie A this season, although a recent string of three wins and a draw has seen them climb back into contention for the top five.
Vincenzo Montella's men have a severe problem up front. Most of that has to do with injuries. Mario Gomez has yet to round into full fitness after a string of injuries. Giuseppe Rossi, who may have been the player of the year last season regardless of missing most of the second half, has yet to find the field after yet another knee problem.
Despite the lack of a top-level striker, Fiorentina is still a dangerous side. Borja Valero is a fantastic playmaker in midfield, and winger Juan Cuadrado continues to generate transfer rumors, like this weekend BBC report that has the two Manchester clubs fighting over the Colombian.
On paper, Spurs are a team that could challenge for a top-four finish in the Premier League. But Mauricio Pochettino's team has been maddeningly inconsistent this season.
They are as capable of a massive win like their 4-0 demolition of Queens Park Rangers in August as they are of getting eviscerated the way they did against Manchester City in October. Roberto Soldado is turning out to be a high-profile transfer bust. He has certainly kept Harry Kane out of the lineup for far too long.
Kane is joint third on the tournament's goalscoring chart, and it will be the priority of Nenad Tomovic and Gonzalo Rodriguez to stop him. If they can do that, Valero will have a chance to cut through a defense that has shown a tendency in league play to leak goals—and occasionally allow it to become a flood.
A potential return for Rossi before the knockout stage begins may be a boon to Fiorentina. Whether they get that or not is up in the air.
As of right now, either of these teams could win this tie, but I might give Tottenham a slight edge based mostly on Kane's form in the competition.
Napoli vs. Trabzonspor
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Trabzonspor made it to this stage a year ago before bowing out to one of Italy's top teams.
Last year that team was an angry Juventus side that had just been knocked out of the Champions League by another Turkish side and was hungry for revenge. This year, the Turkish side—currently fourth in the Super Lig—will face Rafael Benitez's Napoli.
The talent gap here is similar to the one Trabzonspor faced last year. Even when the Partenopei don't play top striker Gonzalo Higuain in the starting XI, they can field deadly goalscoring threats in Jose Callejon and Dries Mertens. Midfield maestro Marek Hamsik pulls the strings alongside Swiss international Gokhan Inler.
Napoli is sometimes prone to giving up goals in bunches to lesser teams—they recently endured draws against Cagliari (3-3) and Empoli (2-2)—so the idea of Trabzonspor moving on isn't entirely out of the picture. That being said, there is a huge gulf in quality here, and the Turkish side will probably need one of those lapses in order to have a shot in this tie.
If Napoli treats this right—the side does have a history of ignoring the Europa League—the Italians should brush this opposition aside with little difficulty.
Torino vs. Athletic Bilbao
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This is a really rough draw for the Granata.
Athletic is a very good team. They've been through European competition before and easily defeated a limp Napoli team over two legs in August to earn a place in the Champions League.
They do have their weaknesses. They're vulnerable to counterattacks, especially down the wings. Torino tends to play more through the middle but could alter that plan. Matteo Darmian and Bruno Peres are as good a pair of wing-backs you can find.
Torino's 3-5-2 formation could press Bilbao's full-backs into their own half and use those two to maraud down their weak flanks.
Both teams have been wasteful in front of goal this season. Torino in particular have only managed 10 goals in the league, and five of their nine tallies in Europe came in the group-stage finale against a Copenhagen team that played with nine men for 50 minutes.
There may be reinforcements on the way for Giampiero Ventura's attack. Over the weekend Football Italia relayed a report from Il Giornale that claimed Il Toro were fast closing on the signature of Antonio Cassano.
The mercurial striker is always hit-or-miss in the locker room, but he's not cup-tied and could provide an instant boost to a struggling attack that could make a big difference.
Expect this tie to be a low-scoring affair. Torino have been game in the Europa League this year—they allowed only three goals through their six group games—but Bilbao might a bit more than they can chew.
On the talent scale, Bilbao is probably slightly ahead. In terms of European experience, there is a major gap in favor of the Spaniards, who made the final of the Europa League only a few years ago.
By contrast, the only Torino players who boast anything in the way of European knockout experience are Amauri and Fabio Quagliarella, both of whom made appearances in the knockout rounds of the Champions League with Juventus in seasons past.
The scales tip towards Athletic, and a trip to the San Mames is always a huge undertaking. Ventura's men will fight hard, but this tie is probably beyond them.
