NFL Power Rankings Week 16: Predicting Post-Monday Night Football Standings
How different would the NFL standings look heading into a critical Week 16 had Jordy Nelson caught what would have been a long touchdown catch that simply slipped through his fingers in the second half of a loss to the Buffalo Bills?
For one, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers wouldn’t be tied atop the NFC North. The Packers would also have their eyes on the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs instead of trying to hold off the Lions for the division and a possible No. 2 seed.
In the AFC, the wild-card picture would be slightly less crowded without the Buffalo victory.
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That is what makes the NFL so intriguing. It is a game of inches, and a drop here or a penalty there can make the difference for a number of different squads.
With that in mind, here is a look at the updated power rankings before Week 16. It is important to note that these rankings are working under the assumption/prediction that the New Orleans Saints will beat the Chicago Bears on Monday night.
32. Tennessee Titans (2-12)
A random final score of 16-11 sounds about right for a contest featuring the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets.
Tennessee lost the game and any hope it had at moving up in these rankings, although it came awfully close to scoring on the contest’s final play. At least a favorable draft pick awaits at season's end.
31. Oakland Raiders (2-12)
The Oakland Raiders reverted back to their old form Sunday with a blowout loss against the previously struggling Kansas City Chiefs.
There will be more consistency in the near future as the Raiders add some more talent to their young core, but they threw their name back into the race for the No. 1 pick for now.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 19-17 loss Sunday to the Carolina Panthers was metaphorical for their entire abysmal season—close, but no cigar, even in the terrible NFC South. Better luck next year, Lovie Smith.
29. Washington (3-11)
The quarterback merry-go-round in Washington included another stop at both Colt McCoy and Robert Griffin III.
McCoy started the game but got hurt, and Griffin actually played fairly solidly in relief, even in defeat. Still, it’s not as if an 11-point loss to the New York Giants is going to inspire anyone to think much differently of this group.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost by one score on the road against the playoff-contending Baltimore Ravens and move up in the bottom of these rankings accordingly.
While Jacksonville was close to really shaking up the standings with a win, it ultimately lost because quarterback Blake Bortles was sacked eight times. He is the future of the franchise and has to get some more protection.
Bortles discussed the pressure after the game, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com: "They're great up front. We knew that coming into the game. A lot of the sacks were on me holding the ball too long. It's something that I'm working on and have to do better."
27. New York Jets (3-11)
The New York Jets won what may as well have been deemed the Marcus Mariota Bowl against the Tennessee Titans Sunday, although the Titans may be the ones laughing in the aftermath. The cruel reality of being on the bottom of the standings in the league is that it is technically better to lose than win for draft purposes, so Jets fans were likely somewhat confused about what to cheer for Sunday.
26. New York Giants (5-9)
The New York Giants knocked off Washington Sunday in a game that featured about as little pregame or postgame hype or drama as fans may ever see in the NFC East. It was simply a contest between two teams playing out the string before the offseason, and the Giants took care of business at home.
25. Chicago Bears (5-9 with projected Monday night loss)
The projection here is that the Chicago Bears will lose Monday night against the Saints' high-powered offensive attack. Anyone who has watched the Bears play defense in recent weeks should not be surprised by that pick.
24. Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)
The NFC South is the gift that keeps on giving.
The 5-8-1 Carolina Panthers are in first place atop the division for now and will stay there if the Bears find a way to upset the Saints in Monday’s game. While it is easy to make fun of the division, the Panthers deserve some credit for winning when they had to without Cam Newton.
23. Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
The Atlanta Falcons played the Pittsburgh Steelers tough even without superstar Julio Jones, but they fell out of first place in the division with the narrow seven-point loss. The good news for the Falcons, though, is they play the Saints and Panthers to finish the season and have every opportunity to earn a playoff spot.
22. St. Louis Rams (6-8)
In what seems like ages ago, the St. Louis Rams lost to the Arizona Cardinals Thursday night.
The Rams defense is terrifying, especially up front, and no contender wants to play it down the stretch. The problem, though, is that the offense looked abysmal in Week 15 and could continue to do so moving forward with Shaun Hill at the helm.
21. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
Division games in the NFL are tricky, as evidenced by the Minnesota Vikings’ two-point loss in Detroit Sunday, but Minnesota needs more close games like that moving forward this year. That is the only way young quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will become fully comfortable in those situations before the Vikings are ready to consistently compete again.
20. New Orleans Saints (6-8 with projected Monday night win)
The projection here is that the Saints beat the Bears in Chicago and reclaim first place in the NFC South. That will put even more importance on the showdown between the Saints and the Falcons in Week 16 (can we call any NFC South game a showdown?).
19. Cleveland Browns (7-7)
The jokes were flying early and often on Twiter Sunday when Johnny Manziel was throwing interceptions and looking every bit like the rookie he is in the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Browns fans cannot get too upset considering Manziel’s status as a rookie, but it is not too often that their team has a chance to make the playoffs. Those chances took a devastating hit after Sunday’s results.
18. Miami Dolphins (7-7)
Like the Browns, the Miami Dolphins saw their postseason hopes severely dashed Sunday by a division rival they already beat earlier in the season.
The New England Patriots controlled the tempo from the outset against an overmatched Miami secondary and offensive line and won easily. Still, credit the Dolphins for hanging in the postseason race much longer than many expected before the season began.
17. San Francisco 49ers (7-7)
How the once mighty have fallen.
The San Francisco 49ers were a deflected pass away from the Super Bowl last season, but they lost any chance at reaching the playoffs this year with yet another loss at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. Colin Kaepernick struggled once again, and the running game never had much of a chance after both Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde got dinged up during the loss.
16. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
The Kansas City Chiefs got the much-needed win against the Raiders that was necessary to remain in the postseason hunt, but it’s hard to feel good about their long-term chances. Unless running back Jamaal Charles completely carries the load on a consistent basis, this offense struggles to move the ball.
Being one-dimensional is not the formula for postseason success.
15. Houston Texans (7-7)
Losing in Indianapolis to the Colts is nothing to be ashamed of, and the Houston Texans will not be punished in the power rankings because of the defeat. However, Ryan Mallett and Ryan Fitzpatrick are both out with injuries, which means the quarterback position is Tom Savage’s to lose.
JJ Watt can only do so much.
14. San Diego Chargers (8-6)
Like the Texans, the San Diego Chargers aren’t going to be severely downgraded for losing to one of the league’s best teams in a head-to-head battle.
San Diego fell to 8-6 with the loss to the Denver Broncos, but it has two games against the nosediving 49ers and one-dimensional Chiefs on the remaining schedule. The postseason is still very much on the table for the Chargers if they finish strongly.
13. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
If the NFL worked like college football, with a subjective rankings system every week instead of the actual standings, the Baltimore Ravens would probably drop for a lack of style points in Sunday’s narrow win against the Jaguars.
The defensive front did its job, which is encouraging, with critical games on the horizon, but the offense did little to inspire confidence. The Ravens will need a much better performance against Watt and the Texans in Week 14.
12. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
Matt Miller of Bleacher Report gave the Buffalo Bills some kudos for yet another dominant defensive performance in Sunday’s dramatic upset win over the Green Bay Packers:
The Bills defense held the mighty Green Bay offense to a measly 13 points and racked up two interceptions, a safety and a punt return for a touchdown. Thanks to those efforts, Buffalo is very much alive in the playoff race.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
The Philadelphia Eagles take a rather big drop in these power rankings, but potential playoff teams can’t come out that flat in such an important game and expect to stay highly ranked here.
Credit the Eagles for coming back in their crippling loss against the Dallas Cowboys, but they gave up the lead yet again late. The home loss puts the Eagles on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff picture.
The good news, though, is that they play Washington in Week 16, while the Cowboys play the Colts. Perhaps Philadelphia can reclaim the division lead right after losing it with those immediate matchups.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)
It is now prove-it time for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they got off to a good start with some revenge against the Browns Sunday. It ultimately won’t mean much unless Cincinnati is ultimately able to beat either Pittsburgh or Denver under the lights, though.
The playoffs await for the Bengals if they can turn in two solid performances.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers did enough to beat the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, and now, there are two home games remaining before a potential AFC North crown.
The Steelers have been playing to their level of competition all season, but their late push continued with the impressive road win over Atlanta, despite the narrow seven-point margin. It would be a surprise at this point if Pittsburgh didn’t at least earn a wild-card spot down the stretch.
8. Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
The Indianapolis Colts clinched the AFC South with the 17-10 win over the Texans Sunday, but Luck and Co. have bigger concerns than just the division. It was the second straight week that the offense struggled in a victory, which is encouraging depending on how you look at it, and it needs to be better before the playoffs.
Otherwise, there is no way Luck can knock off either Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.
7. Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
The Arizona Cardinals won yet again, this time on Thursday, behind a strong performance from the stout defense.
This may be a passing and offensive league, but the Cardinals are trying to win without much production at all from the quarterback position. As long as they continue to win, they could have home field throughout the playoffs all the way through the Super Bowl.
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
ESPN Stats & Info noted that the "Tony Romo can’t win in December" narratives may need to stop after Sunday’s win:
Credit the Dallas Cowboys for walking into Philadelphia and coming away with a win. Anyone who watched the Thanksgiving matchup between the same two teams is likely shocked by this outcome, but the Cowboys now have the inside track to a division crown and home playoff game as a result.
5. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
In the time it took you to read this, the Green Bay Packers dropped another pass against the Bills.
The Packers get punished in these rankings for the stunning loss to Buffalo, but that is more about the Detroit Lions than anything else. After all, the Lions beat the Packers head-to-head earlier this season and are in first place in the NFC North for the time being.
The NFL on ESPN noted just how close the NFC is with two weeks remaining, which means the Packers need to bounce back with a win over the lowly Buccaneers.
4. Detroit Lions (10-4)
The Detroit Lions got yet another critical performance from the defense in Sunday’s narrow win over the Vikings, but that is the unit that has carried them all season.
With Calvin Johnson on the offensive side, Detroit is always capable of scoring at any given moment. That is why it is so important that the defense continues to play well so there is some balance on this team.
If it continues, the Lions will be a tough out in the postseason.
3. Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
Trey Wingo of ESPN passed along a rather interesting stat regarding the Seattle Seahawks:
Regardless of what that number means, the defending champs are a full-blown locomotive hurdling toward the finish. The Seahawks are red-hot after a somewhat slow start to the season and now get to travel to Arizona with an NFC West crown on their minds.
It could be the game of the year in the regular season, at least in the NFC.
2. Denver Broncos (11-3)
Even with Manning as the transcendent superstar leading the way, the Denver Broncos have quietly amassed 11 wins in 14 tries. Whether it is because of the head-to-head loss to the New England Patriots from earlier this season or last year’s Super Bowl, fans aren’t jumping all over the Broncos bandwagon just yet.
All it would take from New England, though, is one slip-up, and the Broncos would be right back on top of the AFC and these power rankings.
1. New England Patriots (11-3)
The machine that is the New England Patriots rolled on Sunday with yet another dominating performance, this time against the Miami Dolphins.
Brady clinched the AFC East and got some revenge for an earlier loss all in one swoop, and two dates with the Jets and Bills are all that stand in the way of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Good luck beating this team in New England come the postseason.
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