College Bowl Picks 2014-15: Recent Odds and Predictions Against the Spread
A vast majority of game odds during bowl season reflect games that could go either way, and yet many of those games end up being decisive victories for one team or another. So, what gives?
More often than not, teams go into bowl games with very different mentalities. A postseason appearance can bring an extra breath of fresh air to a locker room and spearhead an effort to win convincingly on national television. In other cases, a sour ending to the year can leave teams lethargic and unmotivated.
Simply put, teams with very similar talent levels can end up separating themselves when the bowl spotlight is on—for various reasons. But it's worth taking into account when assessing teams' chances of covering certain spreads, and this year is no different.
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Let's take a look at predictions for every bowl game and a breakdown of some of the more prominent picks.
| Dec. 20 | R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Nevada (-1) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette | Nevada |
| Dec. 20 | Gildan New Mexico Bowl | UTEP vs. Utah State (-10.5) | UTEP |
| Dec. 20 | Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl | Colorado St. vs. Utah (-4.5) | Colorado St. |
| Dec. 20 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Western Michigan vs. Air Force (-1) | Air Force |
| Dec. 20 | Raycom Media Camellia Bowl | Bowling Green vs. South Alabama (-3) | Bowling Green |
| Dec. 22 | Miami Beach Bowl | BYU vs. Memphis (-1) | BYU |
| Dec. 23 | Boca Raton Bowl | Marshall (-9.5) vs. Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois |
| Dec. 23 | San Diego County CU Poinsettia Bowl | Navy vs. San Diego State (-2.5) | Navy |
| Dec. 24 | Popeyes Bahamas Bowl | Western Kentucky (-3) vs. Central Michigan | Western Kentucky |
| Dec. 24 | Sheraton Hawaii Bowl | Rice (-1.5) vs. Fresno State | Rice |
| Dec. 26 | Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl | Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech (-6) | Illinois |
| Dec. 26 | Quick Lane Bowl | Rutgers vs. North Carolina (-3) | North Carolina |
| Dec. 26 | BITCOIN St. Petersburg Bowl | NC State vs. UCF (-2) | UCF |
| Dec. 27 | Military Bowl | Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati (-3) | Cincinnati |
| Dec. 27 | Hyundai Sun Bowl | Duke vs. Arizona State (-7.5) | Arizona State |
| Dec. 27 | Duck Commander Independence Bowl | Miami (-3) vs. South Carolina | South Carolina |
| Dec. 27 | New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Boston College (-2.5) vs. Penn State | Penn State |
| Dec. 27 | National University Holiday Bowl | Nebraska vs. USC (-7) | USC |
| Dec. 29 | AutoZone Liberty Bowl | West Virginia (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M | West Virginia |
| Dec. 29 | Russell Athletic Bowl | Clemson vs. Oklahoma (-3) | Clemson |
| Dec. 29 | AdvoCare Texas Bowl | Texas vs. Arkansas (-5) | Arkansas |
| Dec. 30 | Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | Notre Dame vs. LSU (-8) | LSU |
| Dec. 30 | Belk Bowl | Louisville vs. Georgia (-7) | Louisville |
| Dec. 30 | Foster Farms Bowl | Maryland vs. Stanford (-14) | Stanford |
| Dec. 31 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Ole Miss vs. TCU (-3) | Ole Miss |
| Dec. 31 | Vizio Fiesta Bowl | Boise State vs. Arizona (-3) | Boise State |
| Dec. 31 | Capital One Orange Bowl | Mississippi State (-7.5) vs. Georgia Tech | Mississippi State |
| Jan. 1 | Outback Bowl | Wisconsin vs. Auburn (-7) | Auburn |
| Jan. 1 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl | Michigan State vs. Baylor (-3) | Baylor |
| Jan. 1 | Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Minnesota vs. Missouri (-6) | Missouri |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game | Oregon (-9.5) vs. Florida State | Oregon |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl | Alabama (-9.5) vs. Ohio State | Ohio State |
| Jan. 2 | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Houston | Houston |
| Jan. 2 | TaxSlayer Bowl | Iowa vs. Tennessee (-3.5) | Tennessee |
| Jan. 2 | Valero Alamo Bowl | Kansas State (-1) vs. UCLA | Kansas State |
| Jan. 2 | Cactus Bowl | Oklahoma State vs.Washington (-5) | Oklahoma State |
| Jan. 3 | Birmingham Bowl | Florida (-7.5) vs. East Carolina | East Carolina |
| Jan. 4 | GoDaddy Bowl | Toledo (-3) vs. Arkansas State | Toledo |
Note: Odds according to Odds Shark, last updated December 13
Peach Bowl: No. 6 TCU (-3) vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Simply put, bowl season is tailor-made for matchups like Ole Miss and TCU in the Peach Bowl.
You rarely get such a high-powered offense going up against the nation's most formidable defense, but that's exactly what will be on tap for the Peach Bowl. As FanSided.com's Patrick Schmidt noted, TCU's offense versus the Ole Miss defense will be must-watch television:
The Horned Frogs have been wrecking every defense they go up against, with quarterback Trevone Boykin putting up numbers—3,714 passing yards, 38 total touchdowns—worthy of a Heisman Trophy-finalist campaign. The team has racked up more than 40 points on eight occasions this year.
But it will be easier said than done to keep such a ridiculous pace against the Rebels.
Boykin hasn't faced a secondary with ball-hawking defensive backs like Cody Prewitt and Senquez Golson. The two Thorpe Award semifinalists have speed at the second level to help prevent big plays from Kolby Listenbee and Josh Doctson.
Even with some big plays inevitable for TCU, Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace doesn't have a shabby offense of his own. The Rebels have figured things out after the loss of Laquon Treadwell, showing in a win over Mississippi State that Jalen Walton can be a game-changer.
TCU will prove its worth, but the Rebels will show their superiority early and hold off a late surge from an elite Horned Frogs team.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, TCU 30
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon (-9.5) vs. No. 3 Florida State
Now that the formality of the Heisman Trophy presentation is over, the matchup between Oregon and Florida State in the Rose Bowl will officially peg two Heisman winners against one another.
In one corner, it's Jameis Winston and the still-unbeaten Seminoles, who are looking to prove the continuous doubters wrong. In the other, it's Marcus Mariota, who is fresh off being named this year's Heisman winner and leads an Oregon team peaking at the right time.
The two quarterbacks' Heisman seasons were quite similar, as ESPN Stats and Information noted:
Although their 2013 and 2014 seasons were similar, Mariota has left no doubt of his superiority as far as this season goes. They did lose, but he helped the Ducks bounce back from it by hanging 42 or more against their next eight opponents—including a rematch win over Arizona.
While Mariota has thrown just two picks all year compared to 52 touchdowns, Winston has thrown 17 interceptions and goes up against a stingy Oregon secondary that features dominating cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.
The Ducks will sit back and keep Winston in front of them, forcing mistakes and getting the Oregon offense into favorable spots. Mariota will take advantage, helping to keep the ball away from an opportunistic Florida State defense and racking up touchdown after touchdown.
The question then moves to whether the Ducks will cover the optimistic near-10-point spread, but with the Ducks' ability to score in bunches, they should hold off the 'Noles. Winston won't go quietly, but Oregon's prolific offense will keep them distanced down the stretch.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Florida State 30
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
