NFL Predictions Week 15: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

If you've already gone holiday shopping, there's a strong chance you won't be smiling when you see your updated bank account statement. The gift of giving feels great, but the absence of money sure stings.

Well, smartly wagering on a few NFL games could ease the pain.

So, here's the burning question: Are any Week 15 contests guaranteed bets? Absolutely not. No matter how deep we dig into a matchup, the unexpected is always liable to happen. However, doing plenty of research most certainly increases your chances of picking a winner.

Luckily, this week's research has already been done for you. Before we take a look into this week's "lock," let's take a glance at the remaining slate of 15 games and their corresponding odds and project a winner against the spread for each.

Matchup	Odds	Pick ATS	Reason
Miami at New England	NE -7.5	Patriots	The Patriots are in full stride, and the Dolphins remain inconsistent.
Green Bay at Buffalo	GB -4	Packers	See analysis below.
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -10	Raiders	Kansas City's offense isn't good enough to win by 10.
Jacksonville at Baltimore	BAL -13.5	Jaguars	Baltimore's struggling pass defense will keep the Jaguars in the game.
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -7	Texans	The Texans head to Indy with a playoff mentality, and they will keep it close.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta	PIT -3	Steelers	Expect Pittsburgh to win in a shootout due to its versatile offense.
Cincinnati at Cleveland	CLE -1	Bengals	A rookie's first start in a playoff atmosphere isn't a good omen for Cleveland.
Washington at NY Giants	NYG -6.5	Giants	The Redskins just seem to get worse with each passing week.
Tampa Bay at Carolina	CAR -3	Panthers	A big day from Jonathan Stewart will propel the Panthers to a win.
NY Jets at Tennessee	NYJ -3	Jets	The Jets are running the ball well, and the Titans have the worst run defense.
Denver at San Diego	DEN -5	Broncos	This one may come down to the wire, but it's tough to bet against Peyton Manning.
Minnesota at Detroit	DET -7.5	Lions	Minnesota's inexperienced offense will struggle in Detroit.
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -9.5	Seahawks	Seattle is one of the league's best. The 49ers couldn't beat Oakland.
Dallas at Philadelphia	PHI -3.5	Cowboys	It all comes down to which quarterback makes the most mistakes. It will be Mark Sanchez.
New Orleans at Chicago	NO -3	Saints	The Bears will give up way too many points to Drew Brees and Co.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 13.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers (-4) at Buffalo Bills

It's easy to see why Vegas oddsmakers only gave this game a four-point spread. On the surface, these teams appear to even out, as the Packers' potent offense is on the road against a stout Bills defense. However, when looking deeper into this matchup, Green Bay has the clear advantage.

The big narrative this season has been the excellent play of Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. He hasn't thrown an interception at home all year, and the Packers haven't lost a game in Green Bay. Meanwhile, all three of the team's losses have come on the road, and two of those have been by a margin of at least 20 points.

Sure, that doesn't seem favorable here, but is Rodgers really that much worse on the road? The answer is no. Here's a look at his splits this season:

Split	GP	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Home	7	66.1	2,108	23	0	132.6
Road	6	66.7	1,544	12	3	104.0

Yes, Rodgers' home numbers dwarf his away stats, but his road 104.0 passer rating would rank him third in the league behind just Peyton Manning and Tony Romo heading into Sunday. Yeah, that's pretty good.

The quarterback's efficiency has led to Green Bay topping the league in turnover margin, via the Packers' official Twitter account:

But, Buffalo's defense just held Manning to his worst game of the season, as he threw for 173 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. That's true; however, if we're comparing the Bills against the league's best quarterbacks, we may as well factor in Tom Brady's 361 yards and four touchdowns in Week 6.

The fact of the matter is this: It's difficult to trust any defense against one of the league's best quarterbacks on any given week. However, Rodgers lighting up the Bills isn't the biggest issue here. That honor would go to Buffalo's inability to create enough offense to keep up.

For some reason, the Bills continue to rely heavily on the arm of Kyle Orton. While he hasn't been terrible this year, the team's offensive scheme has been severely one-dimensional. In Week 14 against the Denver Broncos, Orton attempted 57 passes, while the team rushed just 16 times. That's not a good formula to eat up clock and keep a potent offense like the Packers off the field.

The Bills are ranked 17th in passing yards, 25th in rushing yards and 17th in points per game. Meanwhile, Green Bay tops the league in points per game with an average of 32.5. To put it simply, Buffalo has only eclipsed 30 points twice this season—both times against the New York Jets.

Here's an interesting comparison, via Jerry Sullivan of The Buffalo News:

All of the underlying factors here favor the Packers. If they need even more of a reason to perform in Week 15, the Arizona Cardinals have already given it to them by winning on Thursday night. Now, Green Bay needs a victory to keep pace in the NFC's race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. All signs point to a decisive Packers win.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bills 20