Predicting Boom or Bust for Each Big Offseason Move to Date
Not every MLB offseason move is going to pan out.
The law of averages won't let that happen, nor will it curse every transaction to failure. Justin Morneau, Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes paid massive dividends last year, but Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran and Ubaldo Jimenez are looking far worse.
Some moves are going to look great in retrospect, but plenty of others will stink. All those bad contracts staining teams' books have to originate somewhere. And of course, both teams don't always benefit equally from a trade.
Clear your schedule because there are a lot of offseason transactions to examine.
Quick Reactions (Hitters)
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Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, New York Mets
Contract: 2 years, $21 million
Three majors problems with this arraignment. 1) Injuries limited Michael Cuddyer to 49 games played last season. 2) He has inflated his stats inside Coors Field, sporting a .795 road OPS during his three years with the Colorado Rockies. 3) Since the Rockies issued him a qualifying offer, the Mets must relinquish a first-round pick for the aging bat.
Verdict: Bust
Billy Butler, DH, Oakland Athletics
Contract: 3 years, $30 million
Billy Butler should rebound from a disastrous 2014 campaign, but it's still an odd contract to give a designated hitter coming off a nine-homer season. The Oakland Athletics bought low on his .766 career OPS, but they forgot to actually sign him at a discount.
Verdict: Bust
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Contract: 2 years, $25 million
It was a lot of money to pay for a 35-year-old who will spend most of his time as a designated hitter, but power comes at a premium. Adam LaRoche has decked at least 25 homers in six of the last eight seasons, and he submitted a stellar 14.0 walk percentage in 2014.
Verdict: Boom
Torii Hunter, OF, Minnesota Twins
Contract: 1 year, $10.5 million
This is more of a public relations move than one that actually helps the Minnesota Twins in 2015, as Torii Hunter's deteriorating power will diminish even more in Target Field. If he can slug .446 for another year while helping the fans forget that they're watching a losing team, it won't hurt anybody.
Verdict: Boom
Nick Markakis, OF, Atlanta Braves
Contract: 4 years, $44 million
Nick Markakis is steady enough to enjoy having around but not strong enough to lock up for four years. After moving Jason Heyward to avoid a future contract dilemma, shelling out $44 million for Markakis’ limited bat is a tough sell.
Verdict: Bust
Miguel Montero, C, Chicago Cubs
Trade: Chicago Cubs get C Miguel Montero; Arizona Diamondbacks get RHPs Jeferson Mejia and Zack Godley
Welington Castillo wielded a higher slugging percentage (.389) than Miguel Montero (.370) last year, but at least the new addition will do less for far more money. Wait...
Verdict: Bust
Quick Reactions (Pitchers)
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Zach Duke, RP, Chicago White Sox
Contract: 3 years, $15 million
While Zach Duke’s tremendous 2014 certainly warrants the investment, he posted a 6.03 ERA the previous season. Three years is too much for such an erratic relief pitcher.
Verdict: Bust
Jason Hammel, SP, Chicago Cubs
Contract: 2 years, $20 million
Jason Hammel could not sustain his strong start after moving to the Oakland Athletics, but he now returns to the Chicago Cubs at a fair market price. He’s precisely the steady mid-rotation starter they needed to push for playoff contention.
Verdict: Boom
Luke Gregerson/Pat Neshek, RPs, Houston Astros
Gregerson Contract: 3 years, $18.5 million
Neshek Contract: 2 years, $12.5 million
The Houston Astros secured two stout veterans to close out their bullpen instead of overpaying for one closer peddling worse numbers. Luke Gregerson is one of the baseball’s steadiest relievers, and Pat Neshek netted a 1.87 ERA last season.
Verdict: Boom
Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract: 3 years, $39 million
The Francisco Liriano who demolished hitters with a 2.20 ERA and .189 opposing batting average after the All-Star break could make this the offseason’s greatest steal. Or the inconsistent, injury-prone hurler burdened by 81 walks through 162.1 innings could turn this contract into a laugher.
The deal takes both scenarios into account, so the Pittsburgh Pirates get a pass.
Verdict: Boom
Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
Contract: 4 years, $55 million
It’s hard to get too worked up either way about this signing. Four years is steep for a 32-year-old pitcher, but he has made at least 30 starts in each of the last five seasons. Ervin Santana doesn’t toss the Minnesota Twins back into relevancy, but he becomes their No. 2 starter and perhaps trade bait near the July deadline.
Verdict: Boom
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract: 4 years, $48 million
A repackaged Brandon McCarthy generated a career-high 175 strikeouts while maintaining his impeccable command. After recording a 2.89 ERA through 14 starts for the New York Yankees, he now shifts to a National League pitchers’ park.
Only one problem: He never pitched 200 innings in a single season before 2014. The Los Angeles Dodgers, however, are swimming in enough cash to gamble on him staying healthy and getting their money’s worth during a World Series run.
Verdict: Boom
Jason Heyward to Cardinals, Shelby Miller to Braves
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Trade: Atlanta Braves get RHPs Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins; St. Louis Cardinals get OF Jason Heyward and RHP Jordan Walden
The offseason's first surprising transaction saw a pair of bright young players swap places. Even though rumors surfaced about the Atlanta Braves shopping Jason Heyward, it still came as a shock to see him dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller.
From an instant perspective, the Cardinals win. Even though Heyward hit only 11 home runs in 2014, he still notched a 5.1 WAR due to a .351 on-base percentage and other-worldly defense in the outfield. After bursting on the scene in 2013, Miller regressed with a 3.74 ERA alongside 6.25 strikeouts (K/9) and 3.59 walks (BB/9) per nine innings.
Although at first a tough pill to swallow for Atlanta, the move ultimately makes sense. Heyward has one year left before entering free agency, and he showed no signs of following Freddie Freeman's lead and taking a team-friendly discount.
Miller, on the other hand, will remain under team control until 2019. One year of Heyward is certainly preferable to one year of Miller, but the Braves made the sacrifice for three more seasons from a cost-effective pitcher.
Verdict: Boom for Both
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Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval to Boston Red Sox
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Ramirez's Contract: 4 years, $88 million
Sandoval's Contract: 5 years, $95 million
Looking to erase the sour taste of a 71-91 season, the Boston Red Sox positioned themselves to leapfrog from worst to first for the second time in three years.
Although their need for a starting pitcher far trumped any offensive concerns, they decided top-notch hitters are too scarce to pass up. That led them to strip Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval away from the National League West.
Despite his uneven ledger, Ramirez at his best is too tantalizing to pass up. After falling off the map in 2011 and 2012, he reminded everyone that he's an elite shortstop when right, hitting .345/.402/.638 for the Dodgers in 2013.
With Xander Bogaerts manning shortstop, Ramirez will shift to left field, where his 135 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) would have ranked fourth-best among qualified players. Set to turn 31 in December, moving him will save Boston from some ugly defensive seasons.
At four years, the considerable risk is worth the reward of poaching the type of MVP-caliber star who typically costs $188 million.
By FanGraphs' estimation, Sandoval has delivered $97.6 million of value over his seven-year career. At age 28, he'll pass his peak before this deal expires, making this a hefty sum for someone who has hit 42 homers over the past three years with a 7.9 WAR.
The Red Sox are paying too much for his October success, which still may amount to a small sample size rather than a tangible skill. He'll play well enough to avoid this deal going down in infamy, but Boston probably won't get its $95 million worth.
Verdict: Boom for Ramirez, Bust for Sandoval
Russell Martin to Toronto Blue Jays
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Contract: 5 years, $82 million
In the first of two substantial offseason additions, the Toronto Blue Jays brought Canadian Russell Martin back to his native country, giving the veteran catcher a sizable deal after notching a .402 on-base percentage for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Out of fear of losing him to the Chicago Cubs, Toronto splurged for a fifth year, a dangerous endeavor for a catcher who turns 32 before Opening Day. While his plate discipline will hold up over the years, his body may not behind the plate.
If he replicates his 5.3 WAR for the foreseeable future, the Blue Jays will worry about him eroding later. Renowned for his ability to frame pitches and manage a pitching staff, one could argue he was worth even more to Pittsburgh last season, yet his new employer now must pay for his career year.
Martin's .290 batting average doesn't jibe with past production, and a .336 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) explains the discrepancy. Expect something closer to his career .260 clip, although he'll offer more power inside the Rogers Centre.
Signing Martin is a justified move that will help Toronto contend in the near future, but three years from now, fans will likely be ready to dump him off the payroll.
Verdict: Bust
Josh Donaldson to Toronto Blue Jays
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Trade: Toronto Blue Jays get 3B Josh Donaldson; Oakland Athletics get 3B Brett Lawrie, LHP Sean Nolin, RHP Kendall Graveman and SS Franklin Barreto
After landing Martin, the Blue Jays made it known that they're sick of waiting around for the future. They doubled down every move by scooping Josh Donaldson away from the Athletics.
Albeit not the flashiest name, the third baseman may very well be the best player to change scenery this offseason. Over the past two years, only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen have derived more value in terms of FanGraphs' WAR.
Don't buy that evil-math vodoo? Fine, he hit 29 homers with 98 RBI and 93 runs. Good, right? Now consider that the righty hit 18 of those long balls on the road, and now he gets a short left field fence that Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have decimated for years.
Written off at age 24, Brett Lawrie is the deal's third baseman once billed as a future star. He hit a robust .247/.301/.421 with an alarming 13.7 line-drive percentage last season, but he can still become an above-average contributor at the hot corner.
For Billy Beane to look back on this chastised trade five years from now and say, "I told you so," he'll need Franklin Barreto to pan out. The 18-year-old shortstop hit .311/.384/.481 in Single-A last season, offering plus speed and defense up the middle.
It's too early to say how Oakland will make out, but upgrading to arguably the game's greatest third baseman at the expense of one notable prospect is worth the roll of the dice for Toronto.
Verdict: Boom for Blue Jays, Incomplete for A's
Nelson Cruz to Seattle Mariners
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Contract: 4 years, $58 million
Nelson Cruz had to get paid. All 30 teams were not going to ignore someone who hit an MLB-high 40 homers with power bats at his highest premium.
That still doesn't make him a prudent commitment by the Seattle Mariners, who are now tied to an injury-prone 34-year-old for four years. Oh yeah, he's also really just a designated hitter.
If he can hit 40 dingers again, they'll make it work. Considering he only hit more than 30 one other time in his career, don't bank on it. Strong contact or plate discipline do not come with his muscle, as he's a career .268 hitter with a .328 on-base percentage.
So a team that plays in a pitcher's park secured a pure power hitter who logged the second full season of his career. Unless Cruz's instant offense leads the Mariners to a deep October run in 2015, this signing won't look good down the road.
Verdict: Bust
Andrew Miller to New York Yankees
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Contract: 4 years, $36 million
Rather than waiting around on David Robertson, the Yankees replaced him with Andrew Miller, who outclassed the Bronx Bombers' closer last season.
During a career season, the former blue-chip prospect weaved a 2.02 ERA through 62.1 frames, collecting 103 strikeouts to just 17 walks. Those sterling rates earned the 29-year-old a 2.3 WAR and 1.51 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
He made some more money in October, becoming Buck Showalter's go-to reliever with 7.1 shutout innings during which he allowed two baserunners. If that guy shows up, the Yankees will have snatched a top-shelf relief ace for $9 million a year.
Of course, this deal is also doused in risk. Handing any reliever four years is dangerous yet alone one about to hit 30 and fresh off his best year to date.
His main improvement lay in the control department, where he slashed 2013's 4.99 BB/9 rate by more than half to 2.45. If that metric regresses, the Yankees will regret shelling out this money. For now, the club should feel good about saving $10 million by signing Miller instead of Robertson.
Verdict: Boom
David Robertson to Chicago White Sox
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Contract: 4 years, $46 million
After reading the Miller analysis, one might expect the White Sox to get mocked here for dishing out such a lucrative contract to Robertson.
Not exactly. It's one thing to rather not pay any reliever this much moolah, but the 29-year-old certainly deserves the rich raise. Even in Mariano Rivera's shadow, the righty dominated in New York, registering a 2.59 ERA and 11.95 K/9 rate during the past three seasons.
To sweeten the pot, the White Sox can expect even better production at U.S. Cellular Field. Last season, he enjoyed a 2.20 ERA away from Yankee Stadium compared to a 3.98 ERA inside the pitchers' nightmare. Over his career, he wields a 2.55 ERA on the road.
At the risk of delving too deep into the human mind, not hearing moans and groans every time he gives up a hit could help. Without having his every move sized up against the greatest closer of all time, Robertson is now the bullpen's undisputed alpha male for a rising organization.
Verdict: Boom
Jon Lester to Chicago Cubs
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Contract: 6 years, $155 million
Past precedent tells us that signing a 30-year-old pitcher to a six-year deal won't end well. Yet the Cubs could not forgo the opportunity to have Jon Lester anchor their staff.
After enduring five straight losing seasons, the Cubs are on the uptick. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Addison Russell form a loaded young offensive core that will terrorize the league for years to come. For all that young firepower at the plate, the Cubs needed someone to give them valuable innings alongside Jake Arrieta.
In comes Lester, who makes the Cubs an immediate contender, even if Back to the Future ends up having jumped the gun a year or two. He's unlikely to replicate his carer-high 2.46 ERA, but moving to the National League will help fend off severe regression.
But how many pitchers have unraveled into their 30s? Look at Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum. Pitchers don't last forever, and Lester already has 1,596 regular-season innings under his belt.
It's an understandable risk for Chicago to take as it inches closer to a franchise revival. The bold move will ignite the long-suffering town for now, but it likely won't end well. If it turns into a Sabathia situation, where he's overpaid for the final few years after contributing to a champion, nobody will care.
Verdict: Immediate Boom, Future Bust
Dee Gordon to Miami Marlins
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Trade: Miami Marlins get MI Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren and INF Miguel Rojas; Los Angeles Dodgers get LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, INF Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes
In a classic case of paying for the career year, the Marlins Marlins traded their top prospect for a player poised to regress.
Dee Gordon ran away with the Dodgers' second base job by stealing 64 bases, but his flaws came to the surface as the season aged. In 258 plate appearances after the All-Star break, he only drew four walks. That caused an unappealing .300 on-base percentage.
A career .272 hitter who benefited from a .346 BABIP, Gordon's lack of plate discipline will severely hinder his value. As the old saying goes, you can't steal first.
While Dan Haren offers a stable veteran presence to round out a rotation, there's no guarantee he ever takes the mound for Miami. Last month, he told ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon that he doesn't want to play away from Los Angeles.
"My signing with the Dodgers last year and my decision to exercise my player option were based on my desire to play in Southern California near my family," Haren said. "I had other opportunities, but at this point in my career, I have no interest in playing in a city away from my family."
Although Andrew Heaney got shelled to a 5.83 ERA during his MLB debut, he entered last season as Baseball America's No. 30 prospect, Miami's highest representative. For a team that strives on building young talent from within, selling its top young arm after Jose Fernandez is a questionable move.
Don't write off Chris Hatcher as a mere throw-in. In 56 innings last season, the 29-year-old tallied 60 strikeouts, 12 walks and a 2.56 FIP. If he proves that to be more than an anomaly, the Dodgers just swindled the Marlins out of a valuable late-inning arm.
Verdict: Bust for Marlins, Boom for Dodgers
Mat Latos to Miami Marlins
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Trade: Marlins get RHP Mat Latos; Cincinnati Reds get RHP Anthony DeSclafani and C Chad Wallach
Like Gordon, Mat Latos represents damaged goods. Unlike Gordon, the Marlins are buying the starting pitcher with his stock plummeted to its nadir.
The 27-year-old didn't lose any favor because of his 3.25 ERA, but a career-low 6.51 K/9 rate created concern, especially since he lost velocity after recovering from an elbow injury.
Throughout his career, Latos has always caused opponents to whiff on at least 10 percent of his offerings. In 2014, however, he registered only an 8.0 swinging strike percentage. There's legitimate reason to worry about his arm entering the tail end of his career.
But before bashing Miami again, consider that general manager Dan Jennings didn't give much to the Cincinnati Reds. Anthony DeSclafani, 24, is a solid arm who could morph into a nice back-end piece to a staff. While Chad Wallach crushed Single-A with a .322/.431/.457 slash line, that's less impressive from a 23-year-old so low down the farm system.
As for the Reds, they wanted to shed payroll, and they were unlikely to retain Latos past 2015 anyway. They didn't get a huge return back, but they won't dearly miss the starter in what looks to be another losing campaign.
Verdict: Boom for Both
Howie Kendrick to Los Angeles Dodgers
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Kendrick Trade: Dodgers get 2B Howie Kendrick; Angels get LHP Andrew Heaney
Before getting into this deal, remember that the Dodgers' acquisition of Jimmy Rollins has not yet been made official. Assuming they didn't give up anything tremendous, he's a fine replacement for Hanley Ramirez.
Now on to the other side of the infield. Right after poaching Heaney from the Marlins, new team president Andrew Friedman traded him to a Los Angeles club for the second time during the winter meetings. The young lefty now ends up on the Angels, with Howie Kendrick headed to the Dodgers as Gordon's replacement.
Judging this all depends on perspective. Replace Heaney's name with Kendrick on the Gordon deal, and it looks good. The Gordon slide didn't even mention Austin Barnes, a catcher who authored a .913 OPS in Double-A last season.
On the other hand, giving up Heaney for one year of Kendrick is worth second-guessing, even if he represents a firm upgrade with his 4.6 WAR. Alas, promptly flipping Heaney to his crosstown rival was probably Friedman's intent all along.
If there's a team who can afford to surrender an above-average middle infielder, it's the Angels, who led the league in scoring last season. With their finances locked up to Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson, Kendrick was primed to become an unfortunate departure next offseason.
Verdict: Boom for Both
Yoenis Cespedes to Tigers, Rick Porcello to Red Sox
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Trade: Boston Red Sox get RHP Rick Porcello; Detroit Tigers get OF Yoenis Cespedes
Few moves make more sense on paper than the Red Sox parlaying Yoenis Cespedes into starting pitcher Rick Porcello.
After signing Ramirez, Boston had more than enough outfielders, yet the rotation needed significant remodeling before Opening Day. In a simple move any fantasy manager could have conjured up, the Red Sox swapped one year of Cespedes for one year of Porcello.
People get carried away in the battle for baseball's soul revolving around a singular debate: Is Cespedes good? He sported a .450 slugging percentage last season, and that’s good. He also reached base at a lackadaisical .301 clip, and that’s not too good. He’s a valuable asset but not an indispensable one, especially for Boston.
The 25-year-old righty won't replace Lester, but Porcello is a control artist whose 1.80 BB/9 rate steered him to a 3.43 ERA. Similar production would have cost a fortune on the free-agent market. General manager Ben Cherington has built a patchwork rotation on the cheap with Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson.
While Detroit didn’t exactly need another power bat to supplement Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, it gets insurance in case J.D. Martinez falls down to earth. Its rotation will no longer prove a vociferous strength if Max Scherzer bolts town, but Alfredo Simon and/or Shane Greene will do fine as back-end options.
If only all trades were this simple.
Verdict: Boom for Both
Jeff Samardzija to Chicago White Sox
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Trade: Chicago White Sox get RHPs Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa; Oakland Athletics get RHP Chris Bassitt, C Josh Phegley and INFs Rangel Ravelo and Marcus Semien
Smelling a title last season, Beane threw caution to the wind and jettisoned top prospect Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija, knowing he’d only employ the starter for a short window.
In hindsight, the whole ordeal deserves a “Bust,” as he lost a potential star at short for a failed playoff run. None of the guys reeled in from the Whie Sox hold a cake to Russell.
Yet given the current circumstances, don’t hate Oakland for this one. Rangel Ravelo hit .309/.386/.473 in Double-A last season, so the corner infielder can make a major league impact as soon as 2015.
Marcus Semien offered up power and speed in the minors. Even after a humdrum debut, he’ll immediately play a solid shortstop for Oakland at a team-controlled rate.
They are nice additions for Oakland but guys Chicago can afford to discard for Samardzija, who rebranded himself as a precise pitcher with a career-best 1.76 BB/9 rate. The added control didn’t stop him from reaching the 200-strikeout barrier for the second straight year, and he lowered his ERA all the way to 2.99.
For the seven people out there who still think wins matter: 1) Stop it. They don’t. 2) Jose Abreu and LaRoche will lead an offense that should present “Shark” with his first season with double-digit victories.
Considering how willingly they opened up their pockets this winter, expect the White Sox to do everything they can to keep Samardzija around for more than one season.
Verdict: Boom for White Sox, Neutral for A's
Brandon Moss to Cleveland Indians
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Trade: Cleveland Indians get 1B/OF Brandon Moss; Oakland Athletics get INF Joe Wendle
At this point, Beane seems to have concluded, “What the heck? I already got rid of Donaldson and Samardzija. The next person who calls gets Brandon Moss.”
There’s no denying the slugger fell off a cliff after a torrid start to the 2014 campaign. After hitting .268/.349/.530 with 21 homers over the first half, he returned from an All-Star Game appearance by batting .173/.310/.274 with four long balls thereafter.
It’s understandable that Oakland got queasy looking at those splits, but looking at the full picture, Moss has hit 74 homers over the last three seasons. That’s two more than Albert Pujols, three more than Robinson Cano and Josh Hamilton and five more than Cespedes, who just fetched a sturdy starter.
To land him, the Cleveland Indians only had to forfeit Joe Wendle, a 24-year-old second baseman who hit .253/.311/.414. They got a significant power threat for nothing more than someone who represents mere organizational depth.
Beane gets criticized for his unconventional methods, often unfairly so. In this particular instance, he made a bad deal.
Verdict: Boom for Indians, Bust for A's
Matt Kemp to San Diego Padres
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Trade: Los Angeles Dodgers get C Yasmani Grandal, RHPs Joe Wieland and Zach Eflin; San Diego Padres get OF Matt Kemp and C Tim Federowicz
The opinions on this trade are drastically split—either that the San Diego Padres robbed their division adversaries for a bona fide superstar or the Dodgers masterfully unloaded a horrific contact on their unsuspecting prey.
The answer lies somewhere in the middle.
After looking like a tame iteration of the former star, Matt Kemp stormed down the stretch by smashing 14 homers over the final two months. Balance the good and the bad, and he finished with an .852 OPS. That’s more than enough to make him San Diego’s premier slugger.
Here’s the problem: He has become a significant defensive liability, posting minus-42 defensive runs saved over the past three years. That limits his WAR to 4.6 over those seasons, which isn’t enough to justify his salary.
Kemp is still owed five years and $75 million. If late-2014 Kemp shows up, he’s worth it, fielding problems and all. If 2013 and early 2014 Kemp return, San Diego will be itching to get rid of him midway through the deal.
The Padres touted out an embarrassing lineup last year, so taking a chance on a marquee bat is justifiable.
It also makes perfect sense for the Dodgers, who have top outfielder prospect Joc Pederson waiting for his crack at a starting gig. Yasmani Grandal is often cursed as the .225 hitter who isn’t worthy of breathing the same air as Kemp, but he also possesses plus-plate discipline, strong defensive skills behind the plate and above-average power that will flourish away from Petco Park.
Verdict: Boom for Both
Melky Cabrera to Chicago White Sox
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Contract: 3 years, $42 million
Following a frenzy of moves at the winter meetings, a peculiar lull filled the air during the ensuing day or two. Then the White Sox struck once again, this time inking Melky Cabrera to a three-year deal.
Rebounding from a horrific 2013, the 30-year-old bounced back by hitting .301/.351/.458 with 16 home runs and a 125 wRC+.
Looking at this career log, the down year now looks like the outlier. Despite hitting .279/.322/.360 in 2013, Cabrera sports an .809 OPS over the past four years, a mark that trumps Adam Jones, Jacoby Ellsbury and Hunter Pence at No. 19 among qualified outfielders.
Defense brought the ticket price down, as he recorded minus-six DRS in 2014, a subpar result not out of line with career norms. He’s a below-average defender, but such above-average hitters typically get paid much more on the open market.
Nobody can say the stigma from 2012’s performance-enhancing drugs suspension hurt him, because Cruz and Jhonny Peralta made out just fine. It’s simply a matter of fence-clearing power getting worshiped above gap power.
This is one of many moves that will make the White Sox a dangerous team next year.
Verdict: Boom
All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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