Who Will Rise to the Top As the US Tennis Season Reaches Its Climax?

The five weeks following Wimbledon throw up contrasting passages for the elite in the men’s game.

For the top seven ranked players, the period since the dramatic events on London’s lawns have provided no on-court action whatsoever.

For some, this has been a period of enforced inaction due to injury—step forward Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal.

For another, it has been the small matter of back-to-back Grand Slam victories quickly followed by the back-to-back birth of daughters: Roger Federer.

For the remainder, it has been a case simply of recharging the batteries for the rigors ahead: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

This is the “club” that might rightly expect to shine as the tour accelerates towards Flushing Meadow, but it is a “club” that is providing scant evidence of their form during the next arduous six weeks. So let’s first look at the players who have already come out to play.

There has been action aplenty on both sides of the Atlantic, on hard and clay courts. These tournaments not only provide some valuable match practice but also give some useful pointers to which individuals are running into good form just as the US Open Series takes off.

First to the clay of Europe, which has played host to the only 500 ATP event since Wimbledon. And one of the stand-out performers has been Nikolay Davydenko, who was the winner of that 500 tournament in Hamburg. This week he followed that victory with the title at the Croatian Open.

What has been striking about the Russian’s return to form after injury is the nature of his wins. In Germany, it was a straight sets victory, 6-4 6-2, and in Umag it was also straight sets of 6-3, 6-0. En route, he beat David Ferrer, Victor Hanescu, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Jurgen Melzer: very solid performances. He was out of the top-10 for four months for the first time in four years. He is now back up to eight.

His latest wins may be on clay, but Davydenko is no slouch on hard courts, and he has played fewer matches coming into the US Open Series than usual. So he could ask some serious questions of the top players.

Another good prospect for the coming tournaments is Robin Soderling. He won his home event in July—notching up wins against proven clay-courters such as Nicolas Almagro and Juan Monaco. But of course it was his outstanding run at Roland Garros that had such an impact.

He seems to be growing into the role of top-10 player. He’s ambitious and confident, and he has the physique and game for hard-courts. So he could reach up from his current No. 12 to the top-10 very soon.

Another power player at home both on clay and hard courts—and also, at No. 11, hot on the heels of that elite band—is Fernando Gonzalez. With just 17 tournaments to his name this year, he should be pretty fresh, and he’s always eager. It will be interesting to see how far he progresses against the tough competition in Washington. If he does well, he could ruffle a few feathers—and not just with his antics—in the big events that follow.

Still just holding a top-10 place is Fernando Verdasco. He was forced to retire from his quarter-final match at the Swedish Open and withdrew from Hamburg with injury. There has been no news since, though his Web site shows Montreal to be his next scheduled tournament. If he is back to fitness, he will certainly challenge those above and below him, but Verdasco must be one of the biggest question marks for the coming weeks.

More question marks sit over the heads of other top 20 players. Gael Monfils, James Blake, and Radek Stepanek have all pulled from Washington with injury. Apart from Davis Cup commitments, none has played since the end of June (Monfils for even longer), so all must anticipate problems once the big tournaments get under way. Without adequate practice or match-play, it’s a big ask to make an immediate impact in a Masters event.

A top-10 player who is struggling to justify that ranking is Gilles Simon, who has produced lack-lustre performances on his favoured clay during July. He lost early both in Stuttgart and Hamburg and appears to be taking a short break ahead of the Masters in Montreal.

With 28 tournaments under his belt this year, and what looked like a niggling knee during the grass season, he surely needs a rest. It is hard to consider him a real contender during the rest of the season.

David Ferrer falls into a similar category. He has seen his ranking drop inexorably since the beginning of the year, though it has been four years since he was below the top-20 mark (he’s currently No. 19).

Ferrer had disappointing results on clay in Rome, Madrid, and Paris, and then suffered a thigh-pull straight after Wimbledon. He seemed to recover some form in Hamburg, being beaten in the semis by the resurgent Davydenko, but he failed to shine again last week in Croatia. With so many challenges from strong hard-court players ranked a little above and below him, it’s unlikely he will cause too many upsets in the coming weeks.

Some players have already been pounding the hard courts of North America in the run-up to this week’s big 500 tournament in Washington. A couple of them are already ranked around the 20 mark and like the faster hard courts.

Tommy Haas has been one of the stand-out performers this year, climbing up from 80 in just six months. A semi-finalist at Wimbledon and a winner in Halle, he has pushed the very best players to the limit.

He began his US preparation last week in Los Angeles and had a decent run to the semis. He continues at Washington, and has the style of play, the confidence and, for the first time in years, the fitness to really make inroads throughout this season.

Tomas Berdych has crept inside the top-20—at No. 19—for the first time in over a year. He tackled just one clay tournament before switching to North America for the Washington event. He’s a powerful player who prefers hard courts but has a lot of tournaments in his legs this season. Though he’s unlikely to contend for a title, he has the ability to upset some of those who might.

Mardy Fish, too, favours hard courts. But while he shone early in the year, he posted an unconvincing run in Los Angeles last week and will need to make a better impression in Washington to become a threat for the major titles.

Marin Cilic, currently No. 15, is playing his first tournament since Wimbledon. He started the year with two titles on hard courts—in Chennai and Zagreb—so his pedigree on the surface is clear. His ranking is climbing steadily and it is surely only a matter of time until he claims a bigger title. This US season could provide just it.

The last top-20 player to consider is Tommy Robredo, but despite some good results early in 2009, and a couple of reasonable clay outings since Wimbledon, he doesn’t really have the weaponry to dominate the top players when it comes to hard courts.

Of those just below the 20 mark, a number are flexing their muscles at just the right time. Names to watch for in particular—based on recent hard court results and the home crowd advantage—are Sam Querrey (up 11 places in a fortnight on the back of a win in Los Angeles and runner-up places in Newport and Indianapolis) and Robby Ginepri, who won Indianapolis and is scooting up the rankings.

There is a further handful of outsiders who deserve consideration.

In good form is Andreas Beck, who started the year outside the top-100 and is now at No. 39.

The popular Juan Carlos Ferrero still continues to improve—he’s now in the top 30: that’s up 86 places since mid-May!

And one should never discount Lleyton Hewitt, who launches his campaign this week following his strong run to the quarter-finals at Wimbledon.

And so back to the men that all these contenders will be targeting. Three of them are breaking cover in Washington this week: Roddick, Del Potro, and Tsonga.

For Roddick, it is a return from injury and will be in important indicator of his fitness. He certainly won’t be hurrying things unnecessarily because his eye will be on the biggest prize of all, the Grand Slam in New York. His Wimbledon performance must give him, and his home crowd, the belief that it really is within his grasp this year.

For Tsonga, there is still a lot to prove. He has reached only one quarter-final in a Grand Slam this year, and faded out of the first week at Wimbledon.

Davydenko and Soderling must feel he is there to be picked off in the rankings unless he recovers some of the form that won him minor titles at the start of the year. So much was promised, but too little, thus far, has been delivered for his No. 7 ranking.

Del Potro, on the other hand, has continued to impress as the year has gone on. As his strength has caught up with the size of his frame, so his game has got more solid and aggressive. His weakness—forward and backward movement—is gradually being compensated for by greater endurance and stronger ground strokes. There is every reason to believe he will be pushing towards the quarters and semis in all the US events, even in New York.

And so to the top four, who will not appear on the scene until the first Masters in Montreal. At least, that is the theory.

Murray and Djokovic have both made appearances in minor events, the latter in a doubles match in Umag last week with his brother, the former for his old club side in Eastbourne. One can only imagine the comments from the opposing team when Murray stepped in to help save the North of Scotland team from relegation!

Since then, Murray has been giving comprehensive coverage on his Web site of his training regime in Miami. He’s working hard in high heat and humidity. And one intriguing fact that also emerges: he appears to be using a new racket.

Murray will certainly be hungry to go one step further at Flushing Meadow this year. It is, indeed, his favourite venue. And it would take a brave man or woman to bet against him taking the title.

Djokovic has been relaxing on his yacht in the Adriatic prior to training. He has quashed rumours of a change of coach, but he has not ruled out expanding his team for the American tour.

He, like Murray, suits the hard courts, and posted good results this time last year. Everything is set for him to make the surge that his tennis has been promising.

That surge will depend on two other factors. They happen to be the two best players in the world, and neither will show their colors until Montreal. Indeed there is still no absolute guarantee that either will play Montreal.

Federer has certainly not pulled out yet, and his Web site has made the signature change to hard-court blue. But there has been no word from his camp since the announcement of the birth of his children, which is unusual. He has very few points to defend from last year. And his wife will not yet be fit to travel with him.

Assuming he does play, his tail will be up, his confidence buoyant and, one imagines, his tennis more uninhibited than it’s been in months. He’s been practising near his new home in Geneva, so he should also be fit. Most of all, he will want to be perfectly prepared for his next tilt at the record books in Flushing Meadow.

Finally, Nadal. The announcements about his fitness and his intentions for Montreal have been a little guarded. Statements such as “I would like to come back” and “I have to see how I recover” pepper the assurances that he is aiming to return to the circuit next week. If he does play, he will be the least match-fit of any of them, having played little since May.

He has points to defend and will see Murray close to taking his No. 2 position. But his courage in pulling out of Wimbledon suggests that he won’t play unless he is sure of his fitness. And if he’s fit, he has to have a fighting chance of a title. But the cards do seem stacked against his winning that last Grand Slam title—for this year at least.

So who will be the US champion in September? Let’s narrow it no further than the semis and take a brave, if foolhardy, stab at the final four: Federer and Murray, Djokovic and Davydenko. But there’s a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the US series reaches its climax in New York!