Week 15 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

Las Vegas does not make NFL picks easy.

Perhaps burnt too many times this season, Week 15 lines and over/under totals crafted by the house are quite difficult to get behind.

It makes sense, though. The Oakland Raiders have pulled epic performances out of their hat at random this season. A season in which Seattle and New Orleans have dropped games at home. Now it is late in the season, when annoying spoilers look to ruin things for others.

The environment is a difficult one for bettors. It can be quite lucrative, though, and nothing quite beats the feeling of taking down the house.

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread O/U	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Pittsburgh at Atlanta	EVEN (55)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders at the moment and gets Atlanta on a short week.
Washington at NY Giants	NYG -6.5 (47)	NYG	U	Washington has an unknown at quarterback, and New York is riding high at the moment.
Miami at New England	NE -8 (48)	MIA	O	Much has changed since Miami beat New England, but the Dolphins will still have enough defense to hang tough.
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -10.5 (41.5)	OAK	O	See analysis below.
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -7 (49)	HOU	U	Houston has the defense to keep pace with Indianapolis. The last game was a 33-28 affair.
Jacksonville at Baltimore	BAL -14 (45)	JAC	O	See analysis below.
Green Bay at Buffalo	GB -5.5 (50.5)	GB	O	Few things can stop Aaron Rodgers, including the Buffalo defense.
Tampa Bay at Carolina	CAR -3 (41)	CAR	O	Carolina seems back to form at just the right time and can exploit a weak defense.
Cincinnati at Cleveland	EVEN (44)	CIN	O	Cincinnati will get revenge on Cleveland by taking advantage of an iffy quarterback situation.
NY Jets at Tennessee	NYJ -3 (42)	TEN	U	Ugly football still gets a winner most of the time, so look for the home team in this one.
Denver at San Diego	DEN -4.5 (51)	DEN	O	Denver won the first in this series 35-21, and it is hard to see this one going much differently.
Minnesota at Detroit	DET -7.5 (42)	DET	O	Minnesota's future is bright, but the present has little in the way of hope against a top-tier defense.
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -10 (38)	SF	O	San Francisco is at rock bottom, but if there is one team that can motivate the 49ers to compete, it is Seattle.
Dallas at Philadelphia	PHI -3.5 (55.5)	DAL	O	Look for Dallas to come out gunning as DeMarco Murray explodes for huge production.
New Orleans at Chicago (Mon., Dec. 15)	NO -3 (54)	NO	O	In a battle of the inept, defer to the better quarterback.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 a.m. ET on Dec. 13.

Over/Under Odds to Bet

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5), Over/Under: 41.5

Michael Zito/Associated Press

Now this is a funny line.

The 7-6 Kansas City Chiefs are losers of three straight and have not scored more than 20 points in that span. Loss No. 1 on this stretch came at the hands of the Oakland Raiders, a team that has won two of three and just beat San Francisco.

Yet the Chiefs are favorites by more than a touchdown.

About that over/under, though.

Andy Reid's team can post a wealth of points in a hurry, but seemingly only if he wants to. Jamaal Charles, who has 898 yards and nine scores, may be the best back in the league. Yet last week in a 17-14 loss to Arizona, Reid ran him just 10 times.

The Oakland offense has a certain potency to it as well. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr (2,676 yards, 17 touchdowns) only threw for one score the last time these two met. Three touchdowns last week and four scores against San Diego earlier in the season show an underrated ability to post gaudy point totals, though.

The youth movement in Oakland does not stop under center. It stretches to the backfield, where Latavius Murray is set to have another big game against the Chiefs after 112 yards and two scores the first time around and 76 yards last week.

Interim coach Tony Sparano is adamant that his team is ready to put up another strong fight, too.

"People had us dead and buried last week," Sparano said, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "I mean, we were done. It was 52-0, everybody quit. This team is a resilient team. I've said it all along. For some reason or another, nobody wants to listen, but I've been saying it. This is the type of team they are."

The last meeting between these two hit the 44-point mark. An over is the smart play for the rematch. Kansas City is at home and hungry for revenge—not to mention the postseason—while Oakland has improved.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-14), Over/Under: 45

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

It seems each year around this time, the question becomes whether the Jacksonville Jaguars will burn bettors.

The Jaguars do not score often. Gus Bradley's team has 20 or more points in just three games this year, two of them being wins.

Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles continues to fight through growing pains and now has 2,466 yards and 10 touchdowns to 16 interceptions on the season. If a breakout game is coming for the UCF product, it will be against these Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens rank 31st in the NFL with an average of 267.2 passing yards allowed per game. When the secondary struggles this season, it struggles. Recent yardage and touchdown allowances to New Orleans (420 yards and three scores), Pittsburgh (340 and six) and San Diego (383 and three) show this well enough.

Of course, Baltimore can score with the best of them.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Joe Flacco continues to fly under the radar as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year. A 64.0 completion percentage with 3,258 yards and 22 touchdowns to nine interceptions is somewhat a product of the addition of Steve Smith (61 catches, 889 yards, six touchdowns).

Most important is the emergence of Justin Forsett, who leads the league's fifth-ranked rushing attack thanks to 1,080 yards and eight touchdowns. When he gets loose against the Jaguars' 28th-ranked rush defense, the Ravens are sure to surpass the 20-point mark for the 11th time this season.

Look for the over here as well, but understand that a leaky Baltimore pass defense means the spread is too much.

Prediction: Ravens 28, Jaguars 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).