Re-Evaluating Each Top MLB Offseason Target's Value Post-Winter Meetings
When the 2014 Major League Baseball season ended, all we could do was take our best guesses for what available players would be worth on the offseason market. But with the offseason now roughly six weeks old and past the most hyperactive winter meetings in recent memory, we can do more than just guess.
It's been a tremendously active winter so far, with both free-agent signings and trades happening left and right. Thanks to this, we now have a pretty good idea for what the going rate is for various types of players on the open market, and for what teams can get for their trade chips.
So what we're here to do is take what we've learned about values on the offseason market and apply it to nine top targets who are still out there: four from the free-agent market (would have been five had Melky Cabrera not agreed to a deal late Saturday night with the White Sox) and five from the trade market.
Start the show whenever you're ready.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
Free Agent: Colby Rasmus, CF
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Yes, Colby Rasmus is coming off a disappointing season. But with the free-agent market now largely devoid of impact bats, you better believe he qualifies as a "top" target on the open market.
Rasmus only hit .225 in 2014, but that came with a .735 OPS and 18 home runs. He's also only a year removed from an .840 OPS and 22 home runs, and he is only headed for his age-28 season.
Rasmus could seek to beat the three-year, $30 million contract Billy Butler signed with the Oakland A's. Rasmus is younger, after all, and FanGraphs can show that he was the superior hitter in 2014. Also, he's a center fielder while Butler's a DH, so of course he would deserve a more lucrative multiyear deal.
Either that, or Rasmus could seek out a one-year deal that would allow him to re-enter the market next winter, ideally with maximum value after a bounce-back season.
To that end, he could seek to beat the one-year, $10.5 million contract Torii Hunter signed with the Minnesota Twins. Since Rasmus is younger by a decade and, per FanGraphs WAR, coming off a stronger season, something like $12 or $13 million wouldn't be asking too much.
Free Agent: Chase Headley, 3B
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You sense that Chase Headley has largely been written off as he's made it more and more clear that his 31-homer, .875-OPS breakout in 2012 wasn't his real self in action, but he's actually a pretty good player.
Headley's .725 OPS over the last two seasons doesn't look great, but it's pretty good when you factor in how he played most of his games at Petco Park. He's also an excellent defensive third baseman.
All told, here's Grantland's Ben Lindbergh explaining why Headley's about as attractive as fellow third baseman Pablo Sandoval:
"For now, Sandoval is useful in the field, but Headley, who’s two years older, is as good as it gets with the glove. He bounced back at the plate after a first-half slump...and projects as a comfortably above-average hitter, if not nearly the MVP candidate he was in 2012. Steamer expects 4.1 WAR for Headley next season, compared to Sandoval’s 3.8...
"
This becomes relevant in light of a report from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports that Headley has a four-year, $65 million offer on the table. If you take Sandoval's six-year, $95 million contract with the Boston Red Sox and slice two years off of it, you get four years and about $65 million.
Don't be shocked if that's what Headley gets. It might sound like an overpay, but it's actually market value.
Free Agent: James Shields, SP
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Now we're getting into the good stuff.
James Shields has been as steady as they come over the last four years, pitching to a 3.17 ERA and 3.51 K/BB ratio over 932.2 innings. Based on that performance, the only guys above him on the free-agent pitching totem pole at the start of the winter were Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.
Of course, Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs this week. Because Shields is two years older than Lester, logic suggests he's in line for a four-year contract.
Here's guessing he'd prefer five years, but that'll be a tough sell. Unlike Lester, Shields is tied to draft-pick compensation. He's also not coming off as strong of a season, and the signings of Lester, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano and Brandon McCarthy leave him with fewer potential homes.
The best guess for Shields is four years in the $80-90 million range, with his only shot at five years coming in the form of an option. Maybe not what he was hoping for, but still quite good.
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Free Agent: Max Scherzer, SP
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And now for the king of all 2014-2015 free agents: Max Scherzer.
You can bet Scherzer was watching closely as Lester hammered out his $155 million deal, and also that he was quite pleased when it was finished. According to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, Scherzer now has an idea what he's worth: $200 million.
Preposterous? No, actually.
Since Scherzer is younger than Lester, he can demand seven years. A deal like that would have to be worth around $28.5 million to get him to $200 million, and there's where Scherzer has a leg to stand on.
Case in point, here are the fWAR leaders for pitchers over the last two seasons:
- Clayton Kershaw: 13.8
- Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer: 12.0
So yeah. There's an argument to be made that there's one pitcher in the league better than Scherzer right now. Not surprisingly, his agent is already sort of making it.
"Max is kind of a Peyton Manning No. 1-type of guy," Scott Boras said this week, via ESPN.com.
Maybe you don't buy the comparison. But sooner or later, some team will buy Scherzer. And yes, it will probably be for $200 million.
Trade Target(s): Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, RPs, KC Royals
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Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland (pictured) each posted an ERA under 1.50 in 2014 and are under club control for a couple more seasons apiece.
But though ESPN.com's Jayson Stark says the Kansas City Royals would prefer not to break up their elite trio of relievers, that they're apparently willing to listen to offers makes sense.
The Royals don't have excess cash. And as Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star noted, they have neither excess bats nor excess young pitching. The H-D-H trio thus represents the one excess they do have, especially with Luke Hochevar returning from Tommy John in 2015.
This winter trade market hasn't given us an idea of what it's charging for elite relievers. The free-agent contracts of Andrew Miller ($36 million) and David Robertson ($46 million), however, go to show that elite relievers are still worth a lot to teams that are desperate for it.
If so, Kansas City may have an advantage. Even after the signings of Miller and Robertson, there are still plenty of clubs in need of late-inning relief help. The Royals might have the leverage they need to acquire the "controllable impact [right fielder] or starting pitcher" Stark says they would want.
They'd be more likely to land a starting pitcher, as they're certainly more plentiful in today's game. Assuming the Royals are indeed willing, breaking up the H-D-H trio may indeed be worth their while.
Trade Target: Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
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Jordan Zimmermann has been mentioned a lot this winter, and things aren't quieting down. According to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, the Washington Nationals were very willing to discuss him at the winter meetings.
On the surface, it doesn't make sense that the Nats would be willing to deal a 28-year-old who's coming off a career-best 2.66 ERA. Why would they want to trade a guy who can clearly help them make good on their World Series aspirations in 2015?
Well, one reason is that now's a good time to sell high on Zimmermann. Factor in how he'll make $16.5 million in 2015 before hitting free agency, and a trade is also a chance for the Nats to clear some payroll space and get a big haul for Zimmermann while they can.
Lucky for us, the recent trade of Jeff Samardzija offers a perspective on Zimmermann's trade value.
The Oakland A's got a young, controllable middle infielder with a solid bat in Marcus Semien on top of three other pieces of controllable talent. And though MLB Trade Rumors projects Zimmermann to be $7 million more expensive than Samardzija in 2015, that he's younger and clearly better makes up for that.
The Nats could thus use the Samardzija package as a starting point and have a leg to stand on. If nobody's willing to deal, here's thinking they'll just keep him and be 100 percent OK with it.
Trade Target: Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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A trade of Johnny Cueto became less likely at the winter meetings, as the Cincinnati Reds are going to need him in their rotation to compete in 2015 after dealing Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.
But courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, we know that Cueto was a hot item at the start of the winter meetings. And in an interview with MLB Network Radio, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty granted that extending Cueto beyond 2015 "won't be easy."
So though less likely, a trade should still be considered possible. All it will take is for somebody to blow the Reds away with an offer. And that could definitely happen.
Where the Samardzija trade was a handy reference point for Zimmermann, it's even more relevant for Cueto's situation. He's not only younger and better than Samardzija, but he's also similarly priced. Cueto's $10 million salary in 2015 is only $500,000 more than Samardzija is projected to make.
If the Reds were to demand a package featuring at least one controllable star and prospects on the side for Cueto, they might be able to get it.
Trade Target: Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
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In the wake of the Jason Heyward trade, Joel Sherman of the New York Post heard from an executive who bluntly said that Justin Upton "will be moved" at some point this winter.
The rumor mill hasn't thrown any water on that notion, as the Upton buzz has continued to come fast and furious. You know, as you would expect for a 27-year-old with 56 dingers over the last two seasons.
Sherman wrote in his report that the Braves were shopping the left fielder, who's a free agent after 2015, at a higher price than they shopped Heyward at. That's saying something knowing that the Braves were essentially able to swap one year of Heyward for four years of Shelby Miller.
I argued at the time that Upton probably could fetch more than Heyward in a trade thanks to his power advantage. But while that might have been true at the time, it might be less true now.
With Hanley Ramirez, Melky Cabrera, Yasmany Tomas, Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter all signed, teams have already plucked quite a few corner outfielders off the open market. And with Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp both traded, two major options have also been plucked off the trade market.
All this activity could mean less leverage for the Braves in trade talks. If so, they may have to settle for a price equal to or even less than the price they sold Heyward for.
Trade Target: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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One way to compliment Cole Hamels is to compare him to Jon Lester. The two are the same age and posted identical 2.46 ERAs in 2014, and ERA+ rates their career performances as roughly the same.
Sounds like a guy worthy of a couple of prospects in a trade. At least three top prospects if the Philadelphia Phillies have their way, in fact, as Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reported in November that's what they're looking for in a deal for the star left-hander.
Two things stood in their way from the very beginning, however. One is that Hamels has a 20-team no-trade list. Another is that he's owed a minimum of $100 million over the next four seasons.
And now the Phillies have a new problem: a lack of leverage.
As David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted, the Chicago Cubs no longer need Hamels after signing Lester. Also, the Los Angeles Dodgers have bolstered their rotation with Brandon McCarthy. Also-also, the Boston Red Sox have bolstered theirs with Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson.
Like that, the three best bets to trade for Hamels have lessened their need for him. Where the Phillies once had a strong chance of getting what they wanted for Hamels, that ship has probably sailed.
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