Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 15: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Position	Start	Opponent	Sit	Opponent
QB	Matthew Stafford (DET)	@ Vikings	Mark Sanchez (PHI)	vs. Eagles
RB	Isaiah Crowell (CLE)	vs. Bengals	Giovani Bernard (CIN)	@ Browns
RB	LeGarrette Blount (NE)	vs. Dolphins	Steven Jackson (ATL)	vs. Steelers
WR	Jordan Matthews (PHI)	vs. Cowboys	Keenan Allen (SD)	vs. Broncos
WR	Steve Smith (BAL)	vs. Jaguars	Vincent Jackson (TB)	@ Panthers
TE	Travis Kelce (KC)	vs. Raiders	Jordan Cameron (CLE)	vs. Bengals

With just two weeks remaining in most fantasy football seasons, loyalty should be out the window.  Just because a sneaky September waiver-wire pick-up has been a fixture in your lineup all season does not mean he should remain so if he faces a highly unfavorable finish to the regular season.

Indeed, while no one needs to tell you to start the likes of Le'Veon Bell and Calvin Johnson, it's the borderline decisions that make or break a team.  If you're still alive in the fantasy playoffs, that likely means you're facing one of the deepest teams in your league, making these differences at the margin of the utmost importance.

Taking a look at some borderline calls this week, let's draw the line and decide which skill position players should start and which should ride the bench in Week 15.

Start 'Em

If Matthew Stafford owners survived his midseason malaise to reach the playoffs, they are likely reaping the rewards when it matters most.  Stafford has accumulated over 20 points in each of the past two weeks, the first time he's crossed that barrier since Week 4.  But those two games came against woeful defenses in Chicago and Tampa Bay; the Minnesota Vikings' young yet versatile defense presents a much stiffer challenge.

However, having the game at Ford Field figures to help Stafford, who has exhibited significant home-road splits this season.  The Lions quarterback has thrown for at least two touchdowns and 280 yards in each of his past four home games, making him a relatively safe play even with a relatively neutral matchup.

At running back, Isaiah Crowell and LeGarrette Blount look to have taken control of previously egalitarian backfields.  Crowell is still splitting touches with fellow rookie Terrance West, as he has received 44 touches to West's 38 since Ben Tate was released before Week 12, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.  

Time Frame	Rec. per Game	Yds. per Game	TDs	Fantasy Pts. per Game
Weeks 1-7	5.4	91.4	4	11.9
Weeks 8-14	3.8	41.5	2	5.7

However, in red-zone opportunities, Crowell has also rushed for 39 yards with two touchdowns on six carries in that span, compared to four carries, nine yards and no touchdowns for West.  It's clear which Cleveland back you should roll with this week against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Blount, meanwhile, should benefit from facing a Miami Dolphins squad that has hemorrhaged yards on the ground recently.  Over the past three weeks, opposing running backs have averaged a whopping 5.8 yards per attempt while scoring two touchdowns after notching just four through the first 11 weeks.  In a prolific New England offense, Blount should receive some goal-line carries on Sunday.

At wide receiver, Jordan Matthews should be a safe play against the Dallas Cowboys, whom he had 51 yards and a touchdown against on Thanksgiving Day.  Dallas does not have the depth or secondary talent to hang with Philly's up-tempo offense, and though Mark Sanchez has his limitations, he has thrived against subpar defenses as a starter.  Matthews is a strong candidate to return to the end zone against the Cowboys.

Steve Smith, on the other hand, might not garner trust as readily.  The fiery veteran was one of the biggest steals of the first half, but his second seven weeks have been a massive change from his first seven:

Still, Smith has two touchdowns in the past three weeks, and he received the majority of the targets last week with Torrey Smith incapacitated.  The younger Smith remains an iffy proposition to suit up, meaning that his elder namesake should get an opportunity to exploit a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has conceded the seven touchdowns to wide receivers over their last six games.

At tight end, look for Travis Kelce to replicate a similar line to the four-catch, 67-yard performance he posted against the Oakland Raiders two weeks ago.  Like many tight ends, Kelce's fantasy value stems primarily from his work in the red zone.  His scoreless drought has extended to five games, in part because of how Kansas City's passing game has regressed, but an opportunity against the banged-up Raiders back seven could help the young tight end snap out of his recent funk.

Sit 'Em

How does it make sense to promote Matthews in the "Start 'Em" section yet advocate against the very quarterback throwing him the ball?  Sanchez does figure to post a relatively gaudy yardage total, as the Cowboys' 7.4 yards per pass attempt allowed ranks 27th.  Not only does that help the likes of Matthews and Jeremy Maclin, but it also makes Sanchez a starting consideration in 12-team leagues or deeper.

But in standard leagues, Sanchez's turnover proclivities are too strong a deterrent.  The Dallas game was one of just two games in which Sanchez did not have multiple turnovers; even then, he had a fumble recovered by his own offensive lineman.  

Moreover, Sanchez had eight points from rushing that day. Considering that his high rushing total in other games this season is seven yards, that boost seems unlikely to repeat itself.

At running back, Gio Bernard was once a high-end No. 2 RB option this season.  But since a litany of minor injuries piled up and forced him to miss three games, the second-year back has lost control of the Bengals backfield.  Bernard has averaged just 52 yards from scrimmage in three games since his return with no scores, as the diminutive back has clearly worn down deeper into contests: 

Nick Wass/Associated Press

With the news from ESPN.com's Coley Harvey that Jeremy Hill will be the starter this Sunday, Bernard's value has totally evaporated.  He may not even be worthy of a flex play considering that he figures to top out at around 10 touches.  That's a bitter pill to swallow for those who happily employed Bernard in the first half of the season, but now might be time to cut bait.

Unlike Bernard, Steven Jackson has no qualms about his role with the Atlanta Falcons.  However, despite a fair volume of carries, the bruising veteran has topped 80 yards rushing just twice this season.  The Pittsburgh Steelers may have issues in the secondary, but they have allowed just a single rushing touchdown over the past five weeks, making it unlikely that Jackson gets the score he needs to sustain his fantasy value.

Moving to wide receiver, Keenan Allen is a player whose real-life value figures to always surpass his fantasy production.  Allen has tremendous value as a precise route-runner and versatile piece in San Diego's West Coast principles, but with just four touchdowns on the year, he's tough to trust on a weekly basis.  

This week's opponent, the Denver Broncos, has conceded the eighth-fewest yards to opposing wide receivers this season.  With the ability to throw budding superstar Chris Harris Jr. on Allen, the Chargers second-year receiver does not figure to receive much of a respite one week after going up against New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis and subsequently disappearing on Revis Island.

The matchup is not as significant an issue for Vincent Jackson, but rookie Mike Evans has clearly one-upped the steady veteran in Tampa Bay's offense.  VJax has has seen a plethora of targets; according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, his 124 on the season are tied for fifth most in the league.  But with just a single score, Jackson has been one of the league's most inefficient point producers.

This week, Jackson and the Bucs will face a rapidly improving Carolina Panthers defense.  Over their past three games, the Panthers have allowed a miniscule 4.5 yards per pass attempt, which trails only the Seattle Seahawks for the best mark in the league during that time span.  

Though Carolina's secondary does not necessarily have elite size like that of Jackson and Evans, it would still be surprising to see the Bucs have enough consistent success through the air to keep Jackson's value at a tenable rate.

Speaking of frustrating veterans, Jordan Cameron has been one of the season's biggest busts at the remarkably thin tight end position.  Cameron owners will likely want to deploy the Browns Pro Bowl pass-catcher after waiting out his five-week absence, but having a new quarterback in Johnny Manziel is a tough wild card to prognosticate.  

Coupled with facing a Bengals team that has allowed just five scores to tight ends all season, Cameron is a tough commodity to play with any confidence.

All points-against information based on ESPN standard scoring leagues.