Detroit Tigers: Big Trades Signal Intent to Win World Series

After watching the Chicago White Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and David Robertson and the Cleveland Indians bolster their lineup with Brandon Moss, the Detroit Tigers finally struck.

Detroit added Yoenis Cespedes, Alfredo Simon and a couple of young pitchers in two separate deals.

In one trade, the Tigers flipped Rick Porcello, fresh off a breakout season, to the Boston Red Sox for Cespedes and pitchers Alex Wilson and Gabe Speier.

In the other deal of the day, Detroit acquired recent All-Star Alfredo Simon from the Cincinnati Reds for infielder Eugenio Suarez and minor league pitching prospect Jonathon Crawford.

Both trades are high-risk deals.

The Porcello for Cespedes Deal

Dealing Porcello for Cespedes is certainly a gamble, but it reaffirms the team’s commitment to winning a championship while also bolstering an already powerful offense that scored the second-most runs in the league last season.

Cespedes provides an upgrade in numerous categories over the since-departed Torii Hunter.

In a down year in 2014, Cespedes posted a 1.3 WAR. In what could be argued was a strong season for a 38-year-old, Hunter’s 2014 WAR was 0.4.

Overall, Hunter’s WAR in two seasons in Detroit was a cumulative 2.1. Cespedes’ WAR in 2013 alone was 2.8 (another perceived down year). Cespedes’ WAR at the peak of his powers in 2012? 3.9.

While much has been made of the former Oakland A’s slugger’s poor on-base percentage—it was a lowly .301 in 2014—he makes up for it with his power.

Last season, Cepedes’ OPS was .751, a number that wasn’t far behind Hunter’s .765 mark.

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

If you prefer old-school statistical analysis, you’ll see that Cespedes takes the cake. The new Tiger acquisition hit five more home runs than Hunter (22 to 17) and drove in 17 more runs (100 to 83).

Cespedes and his cannon of an arm don’t post the most robust defensive numbers, but he should be much better than Hunter’s declining defense in right field.    

In addition to acquiring Cespedes, the Tigers also did some restocking in terms of their minor league depth.

Detroit’s minor league system has been picked apart (by analysts and other teams alike) in recent trades.

The recent additions of David Price, Joakim Soria and Anthony Gose will certainly help the Tigers next year, but it cost them some of their finest prospects.

Detroit lost another elite prospect to Cincinnati in the Simon trade (more on that later), but adding two young, controllable pitchers with upside in Wilson and Speier will help the Tigers replenish some of what was lost.

While regaining depth, trading Porcello is still a gamble on Detroit’s part.

Porcello posted a breakout season last year with career highs in starts, innings pitched and wins while turning in the lowest ERA of his career. You could say that the arrow is trending upward for the 25-year-old Porcello.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The flip side is that 2014 was Porcello’s first season in which he finally put it all together. Prior to that, he posted a 47-41 record with a 4.64 ERA from 2010 to 2013. Even during his breakout year, there were concerns as he struggled at times down the stretch last season.

If 2014 was a fluke, then the Tigers have clearly won the trade, acquiring a middle-of-the-order bat and two prospects for a pitcher who is, at best, a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

If 2014 wasn’t a fluke and Porcello continues to trend upward, then Detroit will still have acquired a power hitter and two prospects. In the right lineup (i.e. Detroit’s) Cespedes could post gaudy numbers.

The Simon Swap

Dealing Porcello left a void in the Detroit rotation. Conceivably, Kyle Lobstein could have stepped in, but the Tigers needed another pitcher of Porcello’s ilk or better to keep the team in position to win a World Series.

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Enter 2014 All-Star Alfredo Simon.

Simon, a converted reliever, posted 15 wins and a 3.44 ERA in 32 starts for the Reds in 2014.

Like Porcello, Simon is a free agent after the 2015 season. At 33 years old, the former Baltimore reliever would be cheaper to re-sign than the former Tiger.

The price for Simon was relatively small.

Yes, Suarez and Crawford are both young players with considerable upside, but both were somewhat expendable.

Suarez was made expendable thanks to the return of Jose Iglesias, who will reclaim the role of starting shortstop. Detroit also has Hernan Perez, who may have the same—or more—long-term potential as Suarez. Utility infielder Andrew Romine is also lurking on the depth chart.  

Crawford’s loss is certainly a substantial one, but one that is sustainable for the Tigers.

While Crawford was ranked as Detroit’s No. 2 prospect by MLB.com, he was part of a glut of young starting pitchers in the Tigers system.

Lobstein, Drew VerHagen, Buck Farmer and Kyle Ryan all made major league starts in 2014. All four would have been ahead of Crawford if there was a freak injury and the team needed a spot starter.

Detroit may lose another top prospect, but with the Tigers unlikely to sign a free agent that would force them to forfeit a draft pick, they will keep their own first-round pick. This will immediately bring more depth to their farm system.

Additionally, Anthony French of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers are “not in active pursuit” of free agent Max Scherzer. This makes sense given Detroit’s full rotation, but it also will net the Tigers draft compensation when Scherzer signs elsewhere.

These additional picks, which have been absent in recent years thanks to the signings of Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder, will help replenish Detroit’s minor league system and more than make up for the loss of Crawford.

In Conclusion

The Tigers filled a need in right field with the addition of Cespedes. To fill that need, Rick Porcello was forfeited, but Detroit replaced him with Simon.

The group of Porcello, Suarez and Crawford was a collectively heavy price to pay to upgrade the team. But given the choice between those three or Cespedes, Wilson, Speier and Simon, the newly acquired quartet wins out every time. Even with Cespedes and Simon in the final years of their respective contracts, this deal helps the Tigers in the long run.

More importantly, it reaffirms their status as American League Central favorites and puts them in prime position to reach—and finally win—the World Series.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.