Chances of Each MLB Rule 5 Draft Pick Sticking on the Big League Roster
The winter meetings concluded Thursday with the annual Rule 5 Draft, as 13 players were selected by new teams in the event's major league phase.
Minor league players become eligible for the draft when they reach their fourth or fifth draft since beginning their professional careers, depending on their ages before signing. A player can only avoid becoming eligible for the draft by being added to his team’s 40-man roster before the aforementioned deadline.
Only teams with an available 40-man roster spot are eligible to participate in the event. On top of that, a team must pay $50,000 to claim a player in the draft and then keep him on the major league (25-man) roster for the entire season.
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Here's a breakdown of the players selected in this year's Rule 5 Draft and whether they can earn a spot on their respective teams' Opening Day rosters in 2015.
1. Diamondbacks: Oscar Hernandez, C (from Rays)
2014 Stats (A): 94 G, 397 PA, .249/.391/.401, 32 XBH (9 HR), 63 RBI, 25 BB, 78 K
Hernandez, 21, put himself on the map back in 2011, when he hit .402 with 21 home runs and 66 RBI in the Venezuelan Summer League, but spent this past season at Low-A Bowling Green, where he batted .249 with nine home runs and 63 RBI.
Hernandez’s impressive athleticism and tools stand out behind the plate, as he threw out 41 percent of base stealers last season and owns a career mark of 42 percent over five minor league seasons.
He’s more of a work in progress offensively, projecting to become a below-average hitter at the highest level. However, scouts are fond of Hernandez’s right-handed power, according to Marc Tompkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and believe he could develop into a "catcher who limits running games while hitting 15-20 home runs."
The Diamondbacks are in need of catching depth after trading Miguel Montero to the Cubs and wouldn’t have selected Hernandez if they didn’t believe he had a chance to stick on the active roster. The White Sox selected Adrian Nieto in last year’s Rule 5 draft and managed to keep him on the roster for the entire season, basically having him catch John Danks every fifth day. Hernandez is far more advanced behind the plate than Nieto was, and given his age, power potential and contract value, the Diamondbacks have every reason to see if he can hang around.
2. Rockies: Mark Canha, 1B/3B/OF (Marlins)
2014 Stats (AAA): 127 G, 537 PA, .303/.384/.505, 51 XBH (20 HR), 82 RBI, 57 BB, 112 K
A seventh-round draft pick of the Marlins in 2010, Canha has shown an intriguing combination of hit-tool and power potential during his level-per-year ascent through the minor leagues.
The 25-year-old enjoyed arguably the best offensive campaign of his professional career in 2014, batting .303/.384/.505 with 20 home runs, 28 doubles and 82 RBI in 127 games for Triple-A New Orleans. Canha also proved to be a versatile defender too, as he saw significant playing time at first base (40 games), third base (18 games) and left field (61 games).
The Rockies traded Canha to the A’s shortly after the draft, and there’s a good chance he’ll stick on the active roster with his new team. The A’s have had previous success in the Rule 5 draft—most recently with Nate Freiman—and it seems like they’ve found a cheap source of power and a versatile defender in Canha.
3. Rangers: Delino DeShields, OF (Astros)
2014 Stats (AA): 114 G, 507 PA, .236/.346/.360, 27 XBH (11 HR), 54 SB (14 CS), 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%
A first-round draft pick back in 2010, DeShields was arguably the most intriguing Rule 5-eligible player this year thanks to his combination of power, speed and ability to play two up-the-middle positions.
The 22-year-old put up huge numbers in 2012 between both Class-A levels (mostly Low-A), batting .287/.389/.428 with 44 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and 101 stolen bases in 135 games, and followed it up with a career-best .873 OPS at High-A Lancaster in 2013.
This past season saw DeShields bat .236/.346/.360 with 27 extra-base hits through 114 games in his first taste of the Double-A level, though a broken cheekbone suffered in late April as a result of an errant pitch might have contributed to his underwhelming production. Still, the second baseman-turned-center fielder’s speed translated favorably at the higher level, as he ranked second in the Texas League with 54 stolen bases.
Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow didn’t expect to lose DeShields in Thursday’s draft, but the Rangers swooped in and stole the 22-year-old with the No. 3 overall pick.
Meanwhile, Rangers GM Jon Daniels already stated he believes DeShields has a chance to stick with the team this year, not to mention a bright future with the organization, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News.
“We look at this as a combination of now and the future,” Daniels told Grant. “He has a chance to be on this team. He is another center field option with a unique speed tool and the instincts to use it. He’s a good fit for our club now and has a chance to be a fit for the future.”
4. Astros: RHP Jason Garcia (Red Sox); Traded to Orioles for cash, per Jim Callis of MLB.com
Garcia, 22, returned from Tommy John surgery this year to post a 3.67 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 56.1 innings while splitting the 2014 season between Short-Season Lowell and Low-A Greenville.
According to Steve Melewski of MASN, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said Garcia fanned 14 of the 18 batters he faced in the Fall Instruction League, showcasing mid- to upper-90s velocity to go along with a quality slider.
Basically, the Orioles are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Garcia—whom they acquired from Astros (No. 4 pick) in exchange for cash—gambling on his present velocity and the fact he’s still working his way back from elbow surgery. Suffice it to say, the odds are against Garcia landing a spot in the Orioles’ Opening Day bullpen.
5. Twins: RHP J.R. Graham, RHP (Braves)
2014 Stats (AA): 27 G/19 GS, 71.1 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, .289 BAA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9
Graham, 24, simply hasn’t been the same after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-May of 2013, as it cost him velocity and sinking action on his fastball. However, the right-hander, who was officially moved to the bullpen late in the 2014 season at Double-A Mississippi, still has the potential to carve out a bullpen role if he's able to return to his 2012 form.
The Twins selected Graham with the No. 5 overall pick in Thursday’s draft, and pro scouting director Vern Followell confirmed shortly thereafter that the club views him a potential bullpen arm next year, provided he’s healthy.
It’s also worth noting that the Twins might be able to keep Graham on the major league roster even if his shoulder turns out to be an ongoing issue: A Rule 5 pick must spend 90 days on the active roster, meaning Minnesota, provided they have the necessary roster space, could potentially stash him on the disabled list for an extended period of time.
6. Red Sox: RHP Jandel Gustave (Astros); Traded to Royals
2014 Stats (A): 23 G/14 GS, 79 IP, 5.01 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .289 BAA, 13 HBP, 29 BB, 82 K
Gustave, 22, hasn’t pitched above Low-A Quad Cities since being signed out of the Dominican Republic before the 2010 season.
The right-hander is one of the hardest throwers in the minor leagues, with a fastball that sits in the high 90s and scrapes triple digits. However, he also has very little control, which explains his 146 free passes in 196 career minor league innings (6.7 BB/9).
The Red Sox traded the flame-throwing Gustave to the Royals—a team that covets players of that nature—though it’s hard to see him landing a bullpen role without markedly improved control.
7. Cubs: SS Taylor Featherston (Rockies); Traded to Angels for cash, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
2014 Stats (AA): 127 G, 550 PA, .260/.322/.439, 53 XBH (16 HR), 14 SB, 6.9% BB%, 20.7% K%
A fifth-round draft pick out of Texas Christian in 2011, Featherston has spent the last four seasons moving at a level-per-year pace through the Rockies system and has quietly posted some impressive numbers along the way.
Coming off a career-best offensive campaign in 2013 playing in the hitter-friendly High-A California League, Featherston, 25, proved his power was for real this year at Double-A Tulsa by setting career highs in doubles (33) and home runs (14) while once again achieving double digits in stolen bases (14). Plus, Featherston lowered his strikeout rate from the previous year by nearly nine percent, and without sacrificing any power.
Featherston would likely be used as a utility infielder when selected in the Rule 5 draft, as he’s logged significant time at shortstop (113 games), second (242 games) and third base (18 games) over four minor league seasons. In general, Featherston is a sound defender with a solid glove, average range and above-average arm strength, and his tools tend to play up thanks to his strong instincts.
The Cubs grabbed Featherston with the No. 7 pick in Thursday’s draft but then traded him for cash to the Angels, who continue to target infield depth after dealing Howie Kendrick. General manager Jerry Dipoto believes Featherston will compete for an infield job this spring, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
"We're excited to have him," Dipoto said. "He’ll come in and compete with Josh Rutledge and Grant Green and Alex Yarborough [sic] for an opportunity to stick with our team, at a variety of different positions or one."
8. Phillies: Odubel Herrera, 2B/SS (Rockies)
2014 Stats (A+/AA): 125 G, 545 PA, .315/.383/.388, 26 XBH (5 3B), 21 SB, 52 BB, 91 K
Herrera, 22, batted .315/.383/.388 with 21 steals in 125 games last season between High-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Frisco, and his .321 average in 96 games at the latter stop paced all hitters in the Texas League.
Herrera has played 135 of his 574 pro games at shortstop, which is significant considering the Phillies' pending trade involving Jimmy Rollins, per ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Defensively, Herrera remains a work in progress with the glove; however, the 10 games he played in the outfield this past season highlight his overall versatility and could also give him extra value to the Phillies as a bench player if they were to keep him on the 2015 roster.
9. Marlins: Andrew McKirahan, LHP (Cubs)
2014 Stats (A+/AA): 44 G, 10 SV, 65 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .233 BAA, 14 BB, 57 K
A 21st-round pick from the University of Texas in 2011, McKirahan posted a 2.08 ERA with 57/14 K/BB in 65 innings between High-A and Double-A this past season, his fourth in the Cubs’ system. In his career, the 24-year-old left-hander has pitched to a 2.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 89 relief appearances.
A Tommy John survivor, McKirahan can run his fastball into the mid-90s, but his breaking ball is less advanced and general inconsistent. Meanwhile, his reverse platoon splits (.539 OPS vs. RHB; .809 OPS vs. LHB) makes him more of a middle reliever than a true left-handed specialist.
The Marlins dealt lefty reliever Dan Jennings to the White Sox shortly before the draft, then presumably filled his spot in the bullpen by selecting McKirahan from the Cubs. In my opinion, McKirahan is one of a few pitchers drafted Thursday who stands a legitimate chance of sticking on the major league roster.
10. Mets: Sean Gilmartin, LHP (Twins)
2014 Stats (AAA): 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .263 BAA (9 HR), 44 BB, 133 K
A first-round pick of the Braves in 2011 out of Florida State, Gilmartin was traded to the Twins last December in exchange for Ryan Doumit.
The 24-year-old left-hander registered a 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 26 starts between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester last season, striking out 133 batters (8.2 K/9) against 44 walks (2.7 BB/9) over 145.2 innings.
Gilmartin was particularly effective against left-handed hitters in 2014, holding them to a .201 batting average in 149 at-bats, although Mets general manager Sandy Alderson doesn't foresee using him in such a specialized role.
"We don't look at him strictly as left-on-left," Alderson said, via Adam Rubin of ESPN New York. "But we like his athleticism. We like his makeup. We think he's got a chance to pitch against righties and lefties. ... Obviously we're looking for more depth and more competition. So I think this is a plus for us."
The Mets plan to keep Gilmartin, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, and will audition him in a relief role next spring.
11. Braves: Daniel Winkler, RHP (Rockies)
2014 Stats (AA): 12 GS, 70 IP, 1.41 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, .139 BAA, 17 BB, 71 K
Winkler, a 20th-round draft pick from Central Florida in 2011, seemed to be on the fast track to the major leagues until he was forced to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery in the spring. Prior to his injury, the 24-year-old right-hander was sitting on a 1.41 ERA and 0.714 WHIP through his first 12 starts at Double-A Tulsa.
Winkler turned in a breakout campaign in 2013, posting a stellar 2.98 ERA and 0.981 WHIP while leading all minor league pitchers with 175 strikeouts.
He doesn’t light up the radar gun with his fastball, usually working in the 87-92 mph range, but the deception in Winkler’s delivery makes the pitch jump on opposing hitters while also setting them up for his plus breaking ball.
"This guy put up great numbers last year," assistant general manager John Coppolella said, via Mark Bowman of MLB.com. "Our scouts saw him. They thought he had great stuff and they thought he really fought on the mound."
According to Bowman, the Braves are likely to keep Winkler on the disabled list for the entire 2015 season. If that’s the case, the team will need to keep him on the active roster for at least 90 days the following year.
"Having a right-on-right weapon wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for us," Coppolella said. "We're in a world where Pat Neshek signed a two-year, $12.5 million deal and Luke Gregorson [sic] got three [years] and $21 [million]. We thought this was a good value play for us."
12. Mariners: David Rollins, LHP (Astros)
2014 Stats (AA): 27 G/12 GS, 78 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .243 BAA, 22 BB, 77 K
Rollins, 24, was drafted by Houston out of San Jacinto College in 2011 but was shipped to the Blue Jays the following year as part of huge trade. Though Rollins has never been considered a top prospect, the left-hander did turn in a breakout performance in 2014, posting a 3.81 ERA with 77 strikeouts and 22 walks in 78 innings for Corpus Christi.
"He's got a pretty good fastball, a 94-95 mph arm," general manager Jack Zduriencik said, via Greg Johns of MLB.com. "He's got a breaking ball, he's got velocity, he's a tough kid and we have history with him. We'll give him a chance to come in and see what happens. It's another strong arm and from the left-hand side."
Rollins is expected to compete with southpaws Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge for a spot in the Mariners’ Opening Day bullpen.
13. Orioles: Logan Verrett, RHP (Mets)
2014 Stats (AAA): 28 GS, 162 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .291 BAA (17 HR), 34 BB, 119 K
A third-round pick in the 2011 draft, Verrett was 11-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 28 starts for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2014. The 24-year-old right-hander lacks overly impressive stuff and velocity but is incredibly durable and possesses an advanced feel for a deep four-pitch mix.
"Outstanding control and a very good slider," executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said of Verrett, via Brittany Ghirol of MLB.com.
"He's an accomplished pitcher. He's won at Baylor, at Double-A and Triple-A, and he should be ready to compete for a Major League job. Where he ends up in the big leagues, who knows, but he's got excellent control and a really good slider that can get out right- and left-handed hitters."
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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