NFL Week 15 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

The NFL is tough on bettors and experts alike.

Consensus picks continue to go awry as the season comes to a close. A good example rests in last week's results, when it was fair game to go heavy against the Oakland Raiders. Of course, those Raiders beat the San Francisco 49ers and ruined things for nearly everybody.

There are few gigantic spreads in Week 15 for good reason. The NFL pulls out some of its best matchups of the season around this time of year, but unexpected results also play a role in the cautious approach by Las Vegas.

Experts are here to help bettors, though. Let's just hope another Oakland does not pop up and ruin things for everyone.

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Pittsburgh at Atlanta	EVEN	PIT	Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders at the moment and gets Atlanta on a short week.
Washington at NY Giants	NYG -6.5	NYG	Washington has an unknown at quarterback, and New York is riding high at the moment.
Miami at New England	NE -8	MIA	Much has changed since Miami beat New England, but the Dolphins will still have enough defense to hang tough.
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -10.5	OAK	Kansas City needs to find an identity fast before it gets swept by a team with nothing to lose.
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -7	HOU	Houston has the defense to keep pace with Indianapolis. The last game was a 33-28 affair.
Jacksonville at Baltimore	BAL -14	JAC	Look for Jacksonville to keep things on the ground while Baltimore struggles to pull away.
Green Bay at Buffalo	GB -5.5	GB	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at Carolina	CAR -6	CAR	Carolina seems back to form at just the right time and can exploit a weak defense.
Cincinnati at Cleveland	EVEN	CIN	Cincinnati will get revenge on Cleveland by taking advantage of an iffy quarterback situation.
NY Jets at Tennessee	NYJ -3	TEN	Ugly football still gets a winner most of the time, so look for the home team in this one.
Denver at San Diego	DEN -4.5	DEN	See analysis below.
Minnesota at Detroit	DET -8	DET	Minnesota's future is bright, but the present has little in the way of hope against a top-tier defense.
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -10	SF	San Francisco is at rock bottom, but if there is one team that can motivate the 49ers to compete, it is Seattle.
Dallas at Philadelphia	PHI -3.5	DAL	Look for Dallas to come out gunning as DeMarco Murray explodes for huge production.
New Orleans at Chicago (Mon., Dec. 15)	NO -3	NO	In a battle of the inept, defer to the better quarterback.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 11.

Bleacher Report Expert Picks

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
PIT at ATL	PIT	PIT	PIT	ATL	PIT
WAS at NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
MIA at NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
OAK at KC	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC
HOU at IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	HOU
CIN at CLE	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CLE
JAC at BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
GB at BUF	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
TB at CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	TB
NYJ at TEN	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ
DEN at SD	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
MIN at DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
SF at SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
DAL at PHI	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
NO at CHI	NO	CHI	NO	NO	NO

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here. 

Breaking Down Tough Calls 

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

It is way too easy to write this one off with face-value logic. Aaron Rodgers against a borderline .500 team with Kyle Orton under center is easy money, right?

Wrong. Very wrong.

Buffalo trots out an elite defense each week that does not blink in the face of elite quarterbacks. The unit ranks fifth against the pass and eighth against the rush. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the unit has 53 sacks, 45 quarterback hits and 135 hurries.

Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes each have a minimum of 10 sacks on the year, by PFF's numbers, meaning the unit rarely needs to bring additional help to rush quarterbacks. That leads to more men in coverage.

Do not underestimate the offense, either. Rookie wideout Sammy Watkins leads the team in receiving and torched a Denver defense that ranks 13th against the pass for seven grabs and 127 yards just last week.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy is well aware of the challenge Watkins presents on every down, per the team's Twitter account: 

With the right approach, though, the Packers figure to be able to post enough points to cover the spread.

Rodgers will get his at some point, as he has on the way to 3,652 yards and 35 scores to three interceptions. A run game with Eddie Lacy (843 yards, seven scores) will keep the Bills honest, which will open things up through the air.

The best quarterbacks still produce against the Bills, as the performance by New England's Tom Brady (361 yards and four scores in a Week 6 win) showed us.

Perhaps it is as simple as face value. Just do not expect the ride to be a smooth one.

Prediction: Packers 28, Bills 20

Denver Broncos (-4.5) at San Diego Chargers

Bettors know this path.

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos took down Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers 35-21 back in Week 8.

Manning threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while Rivers struggled to three scores and two picks against the strong Denver secondary.

This time, the game is in San Diego, and perhaps the biggest difference is the running back who complements Manning. The first time these two met, it was Ronnie Hillman who ripped off 109 yards on 20 carries.

This time, it is C.J. Anderson, who rushed for 58 yards and three scores last week. The transition to a run-first approach is about complete, which seems to come just in time for a San Diego defense that allows 108.4 yards on the ground per game.

In what appears to be a quarterback battle, the backs seem ready to decide it outright. Ponder this: The Chargers have just one win over the Manning-led Broncos in five attempts. That win is the only time the Chargers have rushed for more than 100 yards.

Backup Branden Oliver found just 36 yards on the ground in the first meeting between these two this season. Right now, it is unknown whether starter Ryan Mathews will be able to go either. That means it may be Oliver alone in the face of the league's No. 2 run defense once again.

It is one thing to bring along a potent aerial attack against Manning. However, it means little if Manning is on the field for most of the game because the opposing offense cannot stay on the field via the run and control the pace of the game.

Look for Denver's newfound rushing prowess to spark a victory after Manning puts the Broncos ahead early and never looks back.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Chargers 28

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).