Matt Kemp Poised to Continue Career Rebirth Away from Los Angeles

Andrew Friedman and the Los Angeles Dodgers do know that you can still make trades once the winter meetings are over, right?

The team's new president of baseball operations has been wheeling and dealing all week as he works to retool the roster, and the biggest move yet came early Thursday morning.

Star outfielder Matt Kemp and catcher Tim Federowicz will be heading to the San Diego Padres in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal and pitching prospects Joe Wieland and Zach Eflin, according to Dennis Lin and Kirk Kenney of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

It's a decent return of players for the Dodgers, but the motivating factor here was undoubtedly money.

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Even with the $30 million or so expected to be heading to the Padres in the deal, the Dodgers owe a good chunk of $107 million to Kemp over the next five years, and that will help them address other needs.

The Dodgers save money. The Padres add a right-handed power bat at $15.4 million annually over the next five years, a steal in today's market.

Meanwhile, Kemp gives a boost to a Padres team that ranked dead last in the majors in batting average (.226), OPS (.634) and runs scored (535). 

The question now becomes, just how good will Kemp be in 2015 and beyond, and was his 2014 resurgence for real?

Not all that long ago, the 2011 season to be exact, Kemp was arguably the most dynamic offensive player in all of baseball.

After hitting .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI and 40 stolen bases that season, Kemp was a bona fide superstar, and he even went so far as to predict a 50-50 season in 2012.

"I'm going to go 50-50 next year. I'm telling you, y'all created a monster. I'm about to get back in the weight room super tough so I can be as strong as I was last year," Kemp told reporters, per ESPN.com's Tony Jackson, on the heels of an eight-year, $160 million extension and shortly after losing out on NL MVP honors to Ryan Braun.

He looked to be well on his way to another monster season in 2012 when he hit a ridiculous .417/.490/.893 with 12 home runs and 25 RBI over the first month of the season, but then the injuries began.

A myriad of issues including hamstring, shoulder and ankle injuries would cost him a combined 145 games between 2012 and 2013. There were legitimate questions about whether he'd ever be a star player again. 

The Dodgers brought him along slowly this past spring, as he worked to recover from offseason ankle surgery and missed the first five games of the season for extended spring training. 

The cautionary approach paid dividends, as Kemp managed to stay on the field for the duration of the 2014 season, playing 150 games total on the year.

His overall numbers were still a far cry from his 2011 production, as he finished the year hitting .287/.346/.506 with 38 doubles, 25 home runs and 89 RBI.

A funny thing happened in the second half of the season, though. Kemp became a star again.

	Stats
First Half	.269/.330/.430, 21 2B, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 38 R
Second Half	.309/.365/.606, 17 2B, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 39 R
September	.322/.347/.700, 7 2B, 9 HR, 25 RB, 21 R

His 17 second-half home runs were the most in the National League, and his 54 RBI were the second-most in all of baseball behind only teammate Adrian Gonzalez (56).

The late-season surge even carried over in the postseason, where he was 6-for-17 against the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series.

That included a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 2 that came shortly after the Dodgers had surrendered the lead in the top of the inning and held on to be the game-winner.

If Kemp can duplicate his second-half performance over the course of an entire season, he would again join the ranks of the game's elite, and this deal would be a slam dunk for the Padres.

Even similar production to what he put up in 2014 overall would have made him the most productive hitter in the Padres lineup last season. No one on the roster had more than 15 home runs or 51 RBI in 2014.

Now, some of that obviously has to do with the pitcher's paradise that is Petco Park. A move to the Padres would be cause for concern for most hitters, but Kemp actually has terrific career numbers in San Diego.

Stadium	Stats
Dodger Stadium	2,012 AB, .286/.341/.500, 101 2B, 104 HR, 305 RBI
Petco Park	214 AB, .322/.372/.495, 14 2B, 7 HR, 34 RBI

It's also worth noting that, according to Park Factors, Dodger Stadium was not all that much more friendly to hitters (0.907) than Petco Park was (0.826) this past season, and Kemp has never had trouble producing at Chavez Ravine.

Kemp will never be the dynamic stolen-base threat he once was, as he has swiped a total of 26 in three years since his 40-steal season, but he is still a solid baserunner.

He is also light-years away from being the Gold Glove-caliber defender he was in his prime. His minus-23 Defensive Runs Saved were dead last among qualified outfielders, and his minus-25.8 UZR/150 was also near the bottom of the pack, according to FanGraphs.

None of that really matters for the Padres, though, as they were out to add a big bat to the middle of their lineup. 

As long as he can stay healthy, and a full-time move to right field should help that, there is no reason a 30-year-old Kemp can't once again be a .300-plus batting average, .850-plus OPS, 30-plus home run guy, even with half of his games coming at Petco Park.

He'll no doubt be motivated to show the Dodgers they made a mistake in trading him, and he'll have a chance to do that right away, as they host the Padres for their home opener in 2015.

We will likely never see the 2011 version of Matt Kemp again, but there is no reason his career rebirth can't continue in San Diego, where he will be counted on to swing a big bat once again.