Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The Ultimate Fighter 20 came to a close Wednesday night with the final two bouts. The semifinals saw former Invicta FC strawweight champion Carla Esparza and No. 7 seed Rose Namajunas advance to the finals.
The matchup takes place Friday night, and the winner walks away as the inaugural UFC strawweight champion.
Esparza entered as the No. 1 seed. She was favored to make it to the finals with her wrestling.
Namajunas was not as favored. She came into the show with a 2-1 record. The 22-year-old has a high ceiling in the sport, and she showed why with three consecutive finishes on the show.
The former champion opened as a slight favorite, but money quickly came in on Namajunas to push her as the favorite in the fight according to Odds Shark. Is she? That's what we will take a larger look into in this breakdown.
Let's break down the first-ever UFC strawweight title fight.
Striking
1 of 5
If the fight stays on the feet, you can expect Namajunas to win the majority of the battle.
Esparza is not a dynamic striker. She has some power in her hands, but she doesn't have the technique to use it fully. She is a wrestler by trade. Namajunas will want to keep this fight standing.
Namajunas, on the other hand, is a dynamic striker. She has a good reach for her attacks as well. She does have some defensive deficiencies, but they will not be fully exposed against someone the caliber of Esparza on the feet.
The longer the fight is standing, the more points Namajunas will accumulate.
Edge: Namajunas
Grappling
2 of 5
Esparza's edge is definitely in the grappling department. She is a strong wrestler with a very good top game.
Namajunas will have had plenty of time to improve on her takedown defense, and that will be the key to this fight. She may be able to stop a few of the takedowns, but it is hard to see how she stops them routinely in the fight.
The former Invicta FC champion used her wrestling to win her fights in the house. Once she gets on top, she isn't the most talented finisher, but she does have some solid ground-and-pound. It does allow her to open up her opponent for potential submissions.
Striking is solidly in Namajunas' corner, and the grappling is firmly in Esparza's.
Edge: Esparza
Submissions
3 of 5
Over their careers, Esparza holds a one-submission advantage in competition, but if that is what you are looking at then you are not evaluating their talents correctly.
Esparza's submission wins are all rear-naked chokes. This goes back to her grappling advantage over most. Yes, she has submission finishes to her credit, but she is far from a submission stylist. Namajunas is.
Namajunas' two professional wins are both by submission, and one of those was a stunning 12-second flying armbar.
On TUF 20, she showed off more submission skills. She caught Alex Chambers with a rear-naked choke and Joanne Calderwood and Randa Markos with kimuras. The final kimura against Markos was especially impressive as she got to show her strength. That will be a major concern for Esparza on the ground.
Esparza has submission abilities, but they aren't great. Namajunas is far better in this category. If, or rather when, Esparza takes this fight to the canvas, it will be very interesting to see how she tries to shut down Namajunas, who is very active off her back.
Edge: Namajunas
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X-Factors
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Esparza's X-Factor: Experience
Esparza has been in the cage with the best of the best. Her only two losses are to two of the best strawweights ever: Jessica Aguilar and Megumi Fujii.
Esparza has also been in 25-minute title fights. She holds a significant experience advantage over the 22-year-old. Namajunas is also getting a significant push by the UFC marketing machine. She enters with a lot of pressure on her shoulders whereas Esparza has largely gone under the radar.
All of that helps Esparza in a main event in the UFC.
Namajuans' X-Factor: Takedown Defense
This is clearly the X-factor for Namajunas. She has to stop some of Esparza's takedowns. If they come too easily for the former champion, she will wear Namajunas down and dominate the fight.
Namajunas is dangerous from her back, but she cannot rely on those skills exclusively because of who she is fighting. Esparza has one of the best top games in the division. To rely strictly on submissions off her would be to hand Esparza the title.
Namajunas has to tie up Esparza and force her to fight on the feet.
Prediction
5 of 5
This is an incredibly intriguing fight that can go either way. The fight could come down to how much Namajunas has improved since the show.
She is the new breed of female mixed martial artist, but she is still very young in this sport.
Some have called her the next Ronda Rousey. While Namajunas is very talented that is a disservice to her as there is no other fighter closer to Rousey. It sets unrealistic expectations on her shoulders. She very well could walk out with another submission win, but it won't be in dominant Rousey-like fashion.
I still have to side with Esparza.
She has been in the cage with excellent grapplers and stronger fighters. She won't be surprised by Namajunas. More importantly, Namajunas has technical deficiencies that Esparza can exploit. Look for Esparza to take down Namajunas and wear her down. She will stay tight in defense once on the mat.
Esparza will start to get more offense going in the third frame, and the grind will be too much for Namajunas. Esparza will get the win and will halt the hype of Namajunas.
Prediction: Esparza defeats Namajunas by TKO in the third round
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