MLB Winter Meetings 2014: Bold Predictions for Offseason's Hottest Rumors

Now that Jon Lester is off the table, expect more pitching dominoes to fall during the MLB winter meetings.

After months of speculation, the lefty ace signed a six-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. New manager Joe Maddon is ecstatic about the marquee acquisition, per Baseball Tonight's Twitter handle.

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"We won the baseball lottery!" says Joe Maddon, as @Cubs get @JLester31 for 6 years, $155M. @mlb #WinterMeetings pic.twitter.com/Ay0Ho7nizm

— Baseball Tonight (@BBTN) December 10, 2014"

While the Cubs celebrate and plot their next move, everyone else interested in Lester's services will scramble for Plan B. Not only will the free-agent market for fellow ace Max Scherzer heat up, trade talks will magnify for aces and mid-level alternatives alike.

With the winter meetings winding down, let's take a look at the latest chatter on the pitching market. 

Max Scherzer: $200 Million Man?

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

Scherzer now stands alone as free agency's last remaining grand prize. For those who have suffered an unceremonious offseason, he represents a last chance to hit the jackpot.

Anyone interested in his services better have a giant check waiting. According to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi, the 30-year-old wants a gigantic contract.

Per ESPN's Buster Olney, the Detroit Tigers want to retain him as well as David Price, whom they acquired in July.

Whether or not he lands that expected salary, Scherzer will get paid as the stud he is. Over the past three years, only Yu Darvish has generated more strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). As for putting himself in Clayton Kershaw territory, he and Felix Hernandez are the only two pitchers with a higher WAR than Scherzer over that stretch.

Rank	Player	K/9		Rank	Player	WAR*
1	Yu Darvish	11.22		1	Clayton Kershaw	19.2
2	Max Scherzer	10.46		2	Felix Hernandez	17.9
3	Stephen Strasburg	10.17		3	Max Scherzer	16.5
4	Chris Sale	9.71		4	Justin Verlander	15.5
5	Clayton Kershaw	9.52		5	Chris Sale	15.3

Although he and Lester are the same age, the latter debuted two years earlier, clocking more mileage on his ticker. That, along with his 2013 American League Cy Young Award, will likely earn Scherzer seven or eight years.

If he gets seven, he'll need a yearly rate of at least $28.57 million to hit the $200 million plateau. That would still put him second behind Kershaw, but inflating payrolls makes that a feasible possibility.

A more likely scenario is a desperate club jumping to an eighth year at around $26 million a year. As eager as the Boston Red Sox are to land pitching, they addressed that weakness on the trade market instead, swapping Yoenis Cespedes for Rick Porcello and scooping up Wade Miley from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Tigers, however, showed no constraint when locking Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander up to long-term deals that now look atrocious. 

Prediction: Tigers keep Scherzer for 8-year, $210 million

Cueto and Chapman "Drawing Heavy Interest"

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

With the Cubs emerging as a future juggernaut, the Cincinnati Reds have to feel even worse about their 2015 chances. A 76-86 finish has other teams calling to see if they're ready to transition into sellers.

According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, ace Johnny Cueto and shutdown closer Aroldis Chapman are generating considerable buzz.

Cincinnati's payroll rose all the way to $114 million last year, via Cot's Baseball Contracts, and it's locked down to Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Homer Bailey for the foreseeable future. 

Chapman makes less sense to jettison, as he's 26 years old with two arbitration years left before hitting the open market. If the Reds are going to deal a guy boasting a 17.67 K/9 rate with an average fastball velocity of 100.3 miles per hour, they better receive a colossal return.

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

Selling Cueto after a breakthrough year, on the other hand, is a prudent choice for Cincinnati. A .238 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) and 3.30 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) both poke holes in his 2.25 ERA.

He took a massive leap forward with a 8.94 K/9 rate, but his career average resides at 7.41. Considering his swinging-strike percentage decreased from 2013, don't get caught off guard if that mark regresses closer to the mean.

Perhaps most importantly from the Reds' perspective, he becomes a free agent following the 2015 season. If he performs anywhere close to 2014, he'll work his way beyond their price range. General manager Walt Jocketty should strike down and replenish his organization with young talent across the board.

Prediction: Reds trade Cueto before Opening Day

UPDATE (Thur., Dec. 11 at 12 p.m.): The Reds shedded some payroll on Thursday morning by trading Alfredo Simon to the Tigers and Mat Latos to the Miami Marlins. Dealing both starting pitchers makes Cueto less expendable, but it could also hint at a fool retooling phase for a team harboring no expectations to contend in 2015.

Mets Continue to Dangle Starting Pitchers

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

If all goes well, the New York Mets will have a surplus of starting pitchers on their hands entering Opening Day. The returning Matt Harvey will headline a promising rotation along with Zack Wheeler and Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. Top prospect Noah Syndergaard is also waiting his turn for a promotion.

That doesn't leave enough real estate for all of Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and Bartolo Colon. According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Gee has the greatest possibility of skipping town.

Morosi added the San Francisco Giants to the mix, and Rosenthal linked the Colorado Rockies as well.

Colon, 41, won't fetch much of a return with one year remaining on his contract. Niese has two more years on a team-friendly deal, but his 3.40 ERA from 2014 positions him as the best option of the trio to cement New York's rotation.

Gee, on the other hand, amounts to little more than an average arm to fill out a staff. He notched a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season while his K/9 rate evaporated to a paltry 6.16.

Most clubs will backtrack due to his declining strikeouts, but the Royals and Twins both have a history of collecting contact pitchers. No American League rotation recorded a lower K/9 rate than Minnesota, and Kansas City doesn't lag far behind.

Bleacher Report's Jason Catania pitched an interesting thought for Mets GM Sandy Alderson to consider: Shop deGrom instead.

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He's also already 26 and heading into his age-27 season in 2015, so this isn't exactly a young phenom so much as it's a pitcher who was drafted in the ninth round in 2010 out of Stetson University who then spent parts of five seasons in the minors before making it to the majors.

During that slow climb to The Show—one that was interrupted, by the way, by Tommy John surgery on his elbow back in 2011—deGrom fashioned a minor league ERA of 3.62, a WHIP of 1.28 and 7.4 strikeouts per nine, all of which he far surpassed with the Mets.

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While the market is dull on their bottom-tiered starters, deGrom could net them the shortstop they desire. Gee won't, but someone will take him for an unassuming prospect.

Prediction: Mets trade Gee by end of week

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.