Augsburg vs. Bayern Munich: Issues and Decisions That Will Shape Game
Bayern Munich can clinch the title of Germany's "Winter Champions" on Saturday as they visit Augsburg with a seven-point lead atop the Bundesliga table and three games left to play before the league's traditional mid-season break.
In recent years, Bayern have been enormous favorites against their Bavarian neighbors. And indeed, the Bundesliga's two-time defending champions will have the bookkeepers' backing as they visit the SGL Arena. However, FCA have won their last four games and have surprised many as they've risen to third place in the league table.
Ahead of Saturday's match, B/R takes a look at the key issues that could tip the balance of the derby in either direction. Click "Begin Slideshow" for a closer look.
Augsburg's Wide Range of Weapons
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Augsburg have scored 20 goals in the Bundesliga this season, with nine different players being the finishers. None among their squad has scored more than five goals, and their leading scorer is right-back Paul Verhaegh who stands in a 10-way tie for 11th among the top goal-getters in the German league.
Normally it's a benefit for a team to have a reliable scorer, a player of class who can get the job done in the penalty area. In Augsburg's case, the star of the attack is the team overall, and no-one in particular stands out. The fact that a full-back, playing in a position that generally results in fewer goals than any outfield place, is top scorer speaks volumes.
Given that the hosts are without any particularly bright light in attack, Bayern won't be able to focus on one or two Augsburg players to mark extra closely. This could ultimately help the underdogs' chances.
Pep Guardiola's Midfield Selection
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If Bayern really want to beat Augsburg, they probably will. Even taking into account the number of injured stars that will be unavailable, the individuals among the visitors' squad are simply too much for FCA to realistically hope to have a decent chance of overcoming. If Guardiola uses his best squad, or anything close to it, they could humiliate their Bavarian neighbors.
If Guardiola decides to use some of his fringe players, as he did against CSKA Moscow on Wednesday, then Augsburg have a chance. It's near-impossible to compete with the likes of Xabi Alonso and Robert Lewandowski, but if Guardiola brings in Gianluca Gaudino, Pierre Hojbjerg and Sebastian Rode as he did in Bayern's most recent match, FCA may have a chance. None among the trio has played very much this season and, although they generally played quite well against CSKA, they will be Augsburg's best chance to snatch a point or more.
It would, however, be a surprise if Guardiola were to leave out some of his biggest stars for a second consecutive game. And either way, Augsburg will have a supremely difficult task on hand.
Augsburg's 'Never Say Die' Attitude
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What Augsburg lack in individual class they more than make up for in team spirit and a winning mentality. The driving force of their campaign thus far has been an unshakably strong attitude and the ability to respond to adversity and go on to win close games.
Last week against Koln, FCA came back from a goal behind to net a 90th-minute winner through substitute Alexander Esswein. The week before, they erased a half-time deficit to Hamburg with three unanswered goals after the break. Earlier in the season, they also went behind against Bremen and had a lead erased before winning 4-2.
FCA have scored three quarters of their goals in the second half, and more than a third in the final 18 minutes. If Bayern don't kill off the game early, they could be the next club to be shocked by a scrappy Augsburg side.
Whether or Not Bayern Play with a Striker
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Guardiola reverted to his tactics of yesteryear on Wednesday night as he gave Robert Lewandowski a rest and opted to use Mario Gotze as his main center-forward. His decision saw Bayern struggle to look a threat in the attacking third at times, but ultimately led to a goal from the penalty spot after Franck Ribery was rather senselessly felled inside the box. Bayern went on to score two more goals after the break, at which time Lewandowski came on as a substitute.
The scoreline would suggest that Bayern are just about as capable without a recognized striker as they are with such a player on the pitch, but if not for a penalty that CSKA really didn't need to concede, they may have entered the break with a scoreless draw.
Last season's experimentation without a striker proved that Bayern don't have the right players to use such a system effectively, and one could expect the same. Against a physical and gritty Augsburg side that will defend deep, Bayern will need Lewandowski's strength and power inside the penalty area. And Guardiola will probably use the Poland international. But if he decides to experiment again, a disappointing result is not unforeseeable.
