Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Mid-Winter Meetings Buzz
The stove is officially piping hot, and so are the Chicago Cubs and White Sox.
The White Sox quickly emerged as one of the big winners of Major League Baseball’s winter meetings on Monday night (or early Tuesday morning, depending on where you live), signing free-agent closer David Robertson to a four-year, $46 million deal and then acquiring right-hander Jeff Samardzija from the A's in a six-player trade.
On Tuesday, it was the Cubs who stole all the headlines with their acquisition of veteran catcher Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks, and then team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer put the icing on the cake by agreeing to sign free agent Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million deal.
There are still some big-name free agents on the market, too, as recent signings have amped up teams’ pursuits of impact talents like Chase Headley, Max Scherzer and James Shields.
Based on how the winter meetings have unfolded thus far, it’s hard not to imagine another flurry of signings and trades transpiring before the end of the week. There certainly isn’t a shortage of rumors, so let’s take a look at some of them and play a little "fact or fiction."
Rumor: Padres Will Trade for Matt Kemp
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The Padres haven’t attempted to hide their desire to add power this offseason, as they were reportedly among the finalists in the sweepstakes for Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas.
But after missing out on both free agents, Padres general manager A.J. Preller now has his sights set on Matt Kemp, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:
"New Padres GM A.J. Preller has been working hard investigating all possibilities, and several Padres front-office people used to be with the Dodgers, so there's admiration for Kemp's talents there. By the same token, the new regime in the Dodgers front office has some ex-Padres execs, so they are familiar with the San Diego system.
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The Padres also have the combination of young players and prospects to appeal to the Dodgers, and the two sides have already discussed catcher Yasmani Grandal and right-hander Zach Eflin in a potential deal for Kemp, per Heyman.
Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Padres are “the most likely destination” for the 30-year-old Kemp, and he also notes a deal would presumably send Grandal and one other player to Los Angeles.
Verdict: Fact
Preller seems determined to land an impact bat this offseason. The deal makes sense for both teams, though the Padres would be uncharacteristically willing to take on the $107 million remaining on Kemp's contract through 2019.
Rumor: Nationals Will Trade Jordan Zimmermann
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The Washington Nationals informed competitors last month that they were willing to listen to offers for Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, but also that they would need a flattering return to consider dealing either pitcher.
The Nationals have attempted to lock up Zimmermann during the offseason in each of the last two years, and Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com reports that general manager Mike Rizzo will soon meet with the right-hander’s representatives to re-open talks about a contract extension.
However, as Zuckerman posits, the Nationals will need to make Zimmermann a considerable offer for progress to be made:
"What would that look like? Well, Zimmermann already is signed for $16.5 million in 2015, which means the average annual value of a long-term contract would rise well above that mark. And baseball’s best pitchers have been getting six or seven guaranteed years, with seven such deals having been signed in the last two years for the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Cain.
Does Zimmemann deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as those aces? Yes. His 3.00 ERA over the last four seasons ranks fifth among all MLB pitchers with at least 120 starts, his 1.117 WHIP ranks seventh and his 16.2 WAR ranks eighth.
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The Nationals have no reason to trade Zimmermann this offseason, especially if they believe a contract extension can be worked out down the line.
Verdict: Fiction
They’ll probably receive some intriguing offers, but the Nationals have a better chance at contending in 2015 with Zimmermann in the rotation and therefore don’t need to consider moving him anytime before next year’s trade deadline.
Rumor: Rangers Will Trade for Young MLB Pitchers
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The Rangers are targeting young starting pitching this offseason and already have made a contract offer to free agent Justin Masterson, reports Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News.
Texas also has reportedly reached out to the San Diego Padres about right-handers Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, tweets TR Sullivan of MLB.com.
Meanwhile, Grant, in a separate article, suggests that the 28-year-old Cashner is the Rangers’ top target:
"In the meantime, the Rangers will focus on adding a controllable starting pitcher via trade, and Texan-born, TCU-educated Andrew Cashner of San Diego remains the top target. Cashner has two years remaining before free agency and is likely to earn between $3-4 million in 2015, which would still give the Rangers financial flexibility to take on a bigger salary in a trade during the spring or at the trading deadline.
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The Rangers have also expressed interest in Diamondbacks starter Wade Miley, reports Grant, though the 28-year-old left-hander would likely cost the team a “package that starts with either Alex Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Jake Thompson or catching prodigy Jorge Alfaro.”
Lastly, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported Tuesday via Twitter that the Mets and Rangers are discussing a possible trade for 28-year-old right-hander Dillon Gee, who’s controllable through the 2016 season.
Verdict: Fact
Having reached out to several teams already, it’s clear that the Rangers are intent on adding young, controllable arms this offseason to join Yu Darvish, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis in the 2015 rotation.
Cashner, Ross and Miley presumably would come at a steep cost—albeit one the Rangers can afford given their deep farm system—but Gee seems to be very attainable thanks to the Mets’ pitching surplus. He’d profile nicely as a No. 3 or 4 starter for Texas moving forward.
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Rumor: Braves Will Trade Evan Gattis And/or Justin Upton
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The Braves have been busy this offseason, as they already traded Jason Heyward to the Cardinals and signed free agent Nick Markakis to a four-year, $44 million deal. But the big question is whether John Hart, the team’s president of baseball operations, will now trade sluggers Evan Gattis and Justin Upton.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Braves believe they should receive a better return on Upton than they did Heyward:
"Rival executives agree with that. Upton, due to better power and overall offense, is worth more than Heyward.
But here's the problem: Executives also believe the Braves got too much for Heyward, a defensive specialist whose offensive numbers are declining a bit. They see young pitcher Shelby Miller as an overpay, so no one wants to do better than that yet.
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A few teams have expressed interest in Gattis and Upton, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com, including the Orioles, Rangers and Padres. However, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal hears that Hart will keep both players unless he’s blown away with a trade offer, and Hart’s also stated multiple times that he’s not looking to move Gattis this offseason, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Hart said, via MLB.com’s Bowman:
"We want to make this a palatable ballclub for 2015. We don't want to just give it up. We're playing hardcore on all of the things we're doing on all of the deals with bigger players. We're very content to keep them. But we're carrying some financial restrictions here because of bad contracts.
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On Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the Braves are trying to package Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson—both of whom were acquired from the Diamondbacks—in trade talks with other teams.
Upton, 27, hit 29 home runs and plated 102 runs last season for the Braves and is owed $14.5 million on the remaining year of his contract. If he’s dealt, the Braves could use the additional money to pursue a starting pitcher or two to fill out their rotation.
Verdict: Fiction
Yes, there are many realistic suitors for both Upton and Gattis this offseason, but it’s hard to envision the Braves dealing either hitter for anything short of a perfect offer.
That being said, the Heyward trade indicated that Atlanta is trying to improve its pitching depth, so a team with a host of young arms, such as the Texas Rangers, might be able to make something happen. For now, though, they hold on to both players.
Rumor: Tigers Will Re-Sign Max Scherzer
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ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted on Tuesday morning that the Tigers are intent on re-signing free agent Max Scherzer and that the club is prepared to spend “big, big dollars” to make that happen.
Well, Olney’s report didn’t sit well with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski, who vehemently refuted the writers’ claim.
Via Jason Beck of MLB.com, Dombrowski said:
"I don't know where he got that from. That's not accurate. I'm not sure where it comes from, how it comes. I know it didn't come from this room, but that's not accurate. ...
... I can 100 percent guarantee you that our situation has not changed whatsoever. We've had no further conversations as far as negotiations since Friday, or increase in offers. I can't say that anybody hasn't talked to anybody from their organization or if they've reached out to us, but our situation has not changed at all. We're very happy with our starting staff as we sit here right now.
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On top of that, the Tigers simply might not have the money to re-sign Scherzer—a client of Scott Boras—who was said to be seeking a $200 million contract, per Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, before news broke of Jon Lester’s six-year, $155 million pact with the Cubs.
Verdict: Fiction
Given the Tigers’ long-term financial commitments to Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Victor Martinez (to a lesser degree), it would be a huge risk for the club to also dedicate upward of $200 million to Scherzer. However, it’s yet to be seen how Lester’s signing affects Scherzer's market, so I wouldn’t rule out Detroit just yet.
Rumor: Orioles Will Trade for Marlon Byrd
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The Orioles are looking to add a bat this offseason after losing both Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis via free agency, and they are said to be exploring the open market as well as trade opportunities.
From Paul Casella of MLB.com:
"The club has reportedly reached out to free-agent outfielders Nori Aoki and Colby Rasmus, among others. Melky Cabrera remains the top free-agent outfielder on the market, though the Orioles don’t appear to be actively pursuing him.
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In terms of trade options for the Orioles, one name that continues to come up is Marlon Byrd of the Phillies. With a .277/.323/.476 batting line and 49 home runs over the last two seasons, Byrd would give the team a much-needed boost offensively.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that Baltimore has expressed interest in the 37-year-old Byrd, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post adding that there’s a “strong possibility” the Phillies will trade the veteran outfielder.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports made it seem as though a deal between the Orioles and Phillies might be gaining traction, tweeting that the teams met on Tuesday to discuss Byrd. He’s set to make $8 million in 2015 and has a vesting option for 2016.
Verdict: Fact
The Orioles are also said to be in the market for Justin Upton, though I doubt they’d be willing to meet the Braves’ high asking price. However, Baltimore’s prospect trade chips might be more appealing to the Phillies in a deal for Byrd, who comes with a more reasonable price tag given his age and associated risk level.
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