NFL Week 15 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

While many NFL fans will look at Week 15 as a slate full of playoff-shaping showdowns between some of the best teams in the league, serious bettors will have their eyes on the over-under lines and the respective offensive and defensive matchups on tap.

After all, it is sometimes easier to determine which game will be a shootout and which will be a defensive slugfest than it is to actually pick the winners in the parity-filled NFL.

With that in mind, here is a look at the entire Week 15 schedule and over-under predictions for each game. The over-under lines are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. EST.

Date	Time (ET)	Matchup	Predicted Winner	Over-Under Number	Over-Under Prediction
Thursday, Dec. 11	8:25 p.m.	Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams	Rams	39.5	Under
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons	Steelers	unlisted	Over when released
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Washington at New York Giants	Giants	46.5	Under
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots	Patriots	48	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs	Chiefs	41.5	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts	Colts	49	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens	Ravens	45	Under
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills	Packers	50.5	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers	Panthers	42.5	Under
Sunday, Dec. 14	1 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns	Bengals	44	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	4:05 p.m.	New York Jets at Tennessee Titans	Jets	42	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	4:05 p.m.	Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers	Broncos	50.5	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	4:25 p.m.	Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions	Lions	43	Under
Sunday, Dec. 14	4:25 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks	38	Over
Sunday, Dec. 14	8:30 p.m.	Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles	55	Under
Monday, Dec. 15	8:30 p.m.	New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears	Saints	53.5	Over

Take the Over: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The over-under line in the battle for Ohio between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns is 44, but that will not be high enough.

The Bengals may be in first place in the back-and-forth AFC North, but their defense is anything but elite. It is 21st in the league against the pass and 27th in the league against the run, and if the Cleveland Browns are going to turn the reins over to Johnny Manziel, they strategically picked a vulnerable defense to do it against.

Look for the Browns to rely on Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell against the leaky Bengals rush defense as a way of making Manziel feel more comfortable in his new role. Cincinnati will then be forced to devote an extra defender to the box to help stop the run, which will open up play-action deep routes to Josh Gordon over the top.

Remember, this is the same Cincinnati defense that just gave up 42 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and is likely a bit shaky in the confidence department.

Look for the Bengals offense to utilize the same strategy against Cleveland’s vulnerable front seven as well. The Browns are slightly better than Cincinnati against the run and check in at No. 26 in the league. The thunder-and-lightning combination of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard should have some success against that defense, which will open things up for the resurgent A.J. Green in the passing game.

Green torched the Pittsburgh Steelers for 224 yards and a touchdown catch the last time out and could do the same to Cleveland if it is forced to commit too much to stopping the run. Green is confident after finally getting the best of Pittsburgh’s Ike Taylor in the last game, via Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com:

“For the past couple of years, he was killing me.  He had my answer. I was trying to do different things. It was a big game and I was trying to be aggressive. Emotionally, I was just trying to make plays when my number was called.” 

Those who take the over in this game will be pleased when Green hears his number called throughout the second half.

Take the Under: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The over-under line for the NFC West battle between the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams is 39.5, but that is too high.

Arizona is an impressive third in the NFL in scoring defense, while St. Louis is 14th. However, the Rams defense is playing at the highest level it has all season and has pitched two consecutive shutouts.

Countering those stout defenses will be Arizona’s 22nd-ranked scoring offense and St. Louis’ 17th-ranked scoring offense.

The decision to go with the under goes beyond just the raw statistics of the offense and defense matchups, though. The Cardinals lost quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Andre Ellington for the season and have not scored more than 18 points in each of their last four games.

The one recent bright spot was Kerwynn Williams, who ran for 100 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Rams defense has only allowed 88 total rushing yards the past two games. What’s more, St. Louis has an NFL-best 34 sacks the last eight weeks and boasts arguably the NFL’s best defensive line.

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Robert Quinn and company will terrorize Drew Stanton in the Cardinals backfield all game. 

Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus and Raymond Summerlin of Rotoworld both think things will go poorly for the Cardinals offense against that fearsome Rams defense:

On the other side of the ball, the Rams are an abysmal 26th in passing yards and 20th in rushing yards. The Cardinals third-ranked scoring defense will slow down the Rams enough to keep this game’s total score below the over-under line, especially since it has given up more than 20 points in only one of the last nine games. 

This contest features two stout defenses and two struggling offenses. The under is the safe bet.

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