Best Bets for 2014-15 College Football Bowl Season
Bowl season is Handicapping Christmas.
According to Mike Pickett of of Odds Shark, it is right up there with the Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby in terms of becoming a "must-bet" event each year.
Last year I swung and missed with my 10 Best Bets of bowl season, giving out three winners and seven losers. And I have spent the past 12 months with my tail between my legs. It was ugly. I know.
I'm sorry.
Fortunately, I come into this bowl season on a hot streak, ready to atone for my mistakes. I went 31-13 against the spread in the last three weeks of the season, as documented here, here and here. And that was when I was forced to pick every Top 25 game.
During bowl season, I am allowed to parse the board for value wherever I can find it. Big game, small game—it doesn't matter. And while I can't guarantee the 70-percent clip I have been on the past three weeks, I can call my shot and hope for at least going 6-4.
Anything over 57 percent would be a Handicapping Christmas miracle!
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.
10. Utah (-4) vs. Colorado State
1 of 10
The Game: Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl — Saturday, December 20
The Pick: Colorado State (+4)
Colorado State ended the season with a road loss against Air Force, then promptly lost its head coach, Jim McElwain, to Florida.
So what?
This was still a 10-win team that scored a neutral-site win over Colorado and a road win at Boston College. It finished No. 30 in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, eight spots ahead of No. 38 Utah. And it happens to match up pretty well with the Utes.
Defensive end Nate Orchard had an All-America-type season but will have his hands full with Rams left tackle Ty Sambrailo, a potential top-50 NFL draft pick who is capable of holding his own as a pass-blocker. Without a consistent rush by Orchard, quarterback Garrett Grayson and receiver Rashard Higgins should be able to find success.
Grayson has the No. 2 passer efficiency in the country (171.26), trailing only Marcus Mariota, and Higgins finished first in receiving yards per game (149.1) and receiving touchdowns (17).
At the very least, that field-goal-plus makes me feel safe.
9. Rutgers vs. North Carolina (-3)
2 of 10
The Game: Quick Lane Bowl — Wednesday, December 24
The Pick: Rutgers (+3)
Rutgers has been very good against teams that aren't very good.
Its only four losses since the second week of September have come against Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State—four of the five best teams in the Big Ten. The teams it has beaten this year include Navy, Maryland, Michigan and Washington State.
North Carolina is not very good. It skews closer to the last four teams in the previous paragraph than the first four. The Tar Heels rank No. 74 on the F/+ ratings, one spot behind No. 73 Rutgers.
So why are they laying three points?
Expect one of the craziest games of the bowl season, and bet the over if you're so inclined. There will not be a lot of stops. But I trust Ralph Friedgen to score one more touchdown or field goal than UNC.
8. Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Houston
3 of 10
The Game: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl — Friday, January 2
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)
Pittsburgh lost six of seven games during the middle of the season but salvaged a .500 record with wins over Syracuse and Miami.
Even in those losses, though, the running game was strong.
Workhorse back James Conner and one of the best offensive lines in the country plowed through just about everyone they faced this season, finishing No. 6 in Football Outsiders' rush offense S&P+ and No. 2 in offensive success rate.
On the other side of the ball, Houston finished No. 111 in rush defense S&P+, which belies their actual numbers (only 136.3 rushing yards allowed per game). The only rushing offense of Pittsburgh's caliber it faced this season was BYU—pre-Taysom Hill injury—which rushed for 323 yards and three touchdowns on 62 carries.
Expect the Panthers to find similar success, plowing forward for five or six yards per carry, moving the chains, controlling the clock and systematically beating on the Cougars. It doesn't help that Houston just fired its head coach, Tony Levine, on December 8.
That is no way to go into a bowl game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Ohio State vs. Alabama (-10)
4 of 10
The Game: Allstate Sugar Bowl — Thursday, January 1
The Pick: Ohio State (+10)
Alabama was my pick to win it all during the offseason.
Alabama was my pick to win it all during the preseason.
Alabama was my pick to win it all on Monday.
But 10 is too many points.
It just is.
Ohio State is no scrub, third-string quarterback or not. It ranks No. 2 in the F/+ ratings, one spot behind Alabama and two spots ahead of the only team that beat Alabama (Ole Miss).
In Devin Smith, the Buckeyes have one of the best deep receivers in the country, someone who adjusts to throws and makes plays on the ball. Alabama has better athletes than Smith in the secondary but has struggled to play the ball all season. And OSU's new quarterback, Cardale Jones, is 6'5", 250 pounds, with a cannon for an arm.
Tide win by three. Maybe by seven.
But not by 10 or more.
6. Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech (-6)
5 of 10
The Game: Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl — Friday, December 26
The Pick: Louisiana Tech (-6)
Louisiana Tech is a pretty good football team, and it proved as much by nearly beating Marshall in the Conference USA title game.
Cody Sokol stabilized the quarterback position, Kenneth Dixon got back to (or near) his freshman-season ways at running back, and the defense, led by former Texas coordinator Manny Diaz, finished No. 23 in the defensive F/+ ratings.
That Illinois completed its "Drive For Six" and made a bowl game is a wonderful story, but it speaks more to the weakness of the Big Ten than the strength of the Illini roster. This team is not very good. It finished No. 78 on the F/+ ratings, 30 spots behind Louisiana Tech.
Bettors have already moved this line from minus-4 to minus-6.
5. Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati (-3)
6 of 10
The Game: Military Bowl — Saturday, December 27
The Pick: Virginia Tech (+3)
Cincinnati's offense has been good but not great this season. On the whole, quarterback Gunner Kiel had a successful debut with the Bearcats, but he also threw three interceptions apiece against Miami (Fla.) and East Carolina and two more against Miami (Ohio).
Virginia Tech's defense is good enough to exploit Kiel's carelessness. It is perfectly suited to stop Cincinnati. The Hokies rank No. 4 in defensive F/+ and No. 3 in havoc rate, a per-play metric that measures tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defensed.
It is probably for the best to stop there, before analyzing Virginia Tech's offense. The Hokies are the better team here, and they are getting three points. The more time you spend looking at their lesser half, the higher chance you talk yourself out of picking them.
Don't talk yourself out of picking them.
4. Nevada (-1) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
7 of 10
The Game: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl — Saturday, December 20
The Pick: Nevada (-1)
Louisiana-Lafayette has won the past three New Orleans Bowls, soaking up the home-field advantage of the Superdome.
That trend is the ostensible reason for this line, which is essentially a pick 'em even though Nevada has been the better team all season.
The Wolfpack are No. 64 on the F/+ ratings and have played one-score games against teams such as Arizona, Boise State, Colorado State and Air Force. The Ragin' Cajuns are No. 86 on the F/+ ratings and just one game removed from losing 35-16 to Appalachian State at home.
Quarterback Cody Fajardo and defensive end Brock Hekking are two of the better players in Nevada history and will have this team amped to finish their careers with a win instead of a six-loss season.
3. Duke vs. Arizona State (-7.5)
8 of 10
The Game: Hyundai Sun Bowl — Saturday, December 27
The Pick: Duke (+7.5)
Duke is devalued because it played its worst game of the season on national TV. That game took place on a weekday night, so everybody got to see the Blue Devils lose to a bad North Carolina team, 45-20.
People didn't get to see as much of David Cutcliffe's team during non-prime-time, non-marquee ACC games, when it did its best work of the season. But make no mistake about it: Even if the Blue Devils aren't sexy, they are good enough to stay close with anyone. They were also good enough to win a road game at Georgia Tech, 31-25.
Arizona State (No. 26) ranks just two spots ahead of Duke (No. 28) on the F/+ ratings, a minuscule difference for a team that's laying more than a touchdown. The Sun Devils have not looked right on offense since the beginning part of the season, and Duke has a scrappy defense that can force them into mistakes.
Personally, I think Duke wins outright. But that I don't feel as confident about. Duke to stay within a touchdown, however, is an easy call.
Remember how ASU fared as a big favorite in last year's bowl game?
Yeah. Me too.
2. Boise State vs. Arizona (-3)
9 of 10
The Game: VIZIO Fiesta Bowl — Wednesday, December 31
The Pick: Boise State (+3)
Arizona won the Pac-12 South but isn't as good as that title makes it sound.
The Wildcats rank No. 33 in the F/+ ratings and placed outside the top 10 even before getting drilled by Oregon. They were a Hail Mary against Cal away from going 8-4 in the regular season and also struggled to beat UTSA (yuck) and Nevada in nonconference play.
Boise State, meanwhile, has gotten back to the big time with a nice first year under head coach Bryan Harsin. The loss of Chris Petersen took an early toll on the Broncos, who opened the season 3-2, but they have rattled off eight straight wins since the start of October.
That is tied for the third-longest winning streak in the country.
There is no salient matchup advantage or trend to take advantage of in this Fiesta Bowl. There is no secret, "inside handicapping" reason to take Boise State. There is only the fact that the Broncos are the better team, and the line doesn't seem to acknowledge that.
"It’s not like going to a regular bowl game," Harsin told reporters of playing in one of the New Year's Six matchups. "This is the game. It’s an extreme accomplishment for these guys."
Boise State should win this outright.
1. Miami (-1.5) vs. South Carolina
10 of 10
The Game: Duck Commander Independence Bowl — Saturday, December 27
The Pick: Miami (-1.5)
This line opened as a pick 'em before bettors snatched up the Hurricanes and pushed it up to Miami minus-1.5.
That is still too few points.
Miami finished No. 24 in the F/+ ratings and No. 17 in offensive F/+. South Carolina finished No. 56 in the F/+ ratings and No. 117 in defensive F/+.
The only teams with defenses worse than the Gamecocks this season were SMU, Eastern Michigan, Idaho, Florida International, Troy, Tulsa, UConn, Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State and North Texas. That's all. In the entire country.
According to opponent-adjusted data, every other defense in college football was better than South Carolina's.
Brad Kaaya, Duke Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Clive Walford should all have big games, and Miami's defense, which did take a big step forward this season, should be able to concoct enough stops.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
