Sugar Bowl 2015: Ohio State vs. Alabama Early Odds and Picks
The initial College Football Playoff could not have asked for a better matchup to ring in the new year than what it got in the Sugar Bowl.
Ohio State and Alabama are two of the most storied programs in the history of college football. A showdown between the Buckeyes and the Crimson Tide means Heisman Trophies, national championships, large and passionate fanbases, future NFL players and rock-star coaches.
It also means a third-string quarterback making his second-career start against Nick Saban with nearly a month of preparation time.
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Here is a look at all of the essential information for the prime-time showdown between Saban’s Crimson Tide and Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes.
Viewing Information
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
When: Jan. 1, 2015
Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Odds (via Odds Shark): Alabama -10, as of December 8
Preview/Prediction
Ohio State and Alabama certainly took different paths to get to the playoffs, which partially explains why the Crimson Tide are No. 1 and the Buckeyes are No. 4.
Alabama was its typical dominant self and only lost one game all season. Among the impressive wins were a 59-0 beatdown of Texas A&M, an overtime win at LSU, a victory over then-No. 1 Mississippi State, a shootout win over Auburn and a blowout of Missouri in the SEC Championship Game.
On the other side, the Buckeyes have experienced an emotional roller-coaster of a season. The drama began before the opening game when superstar quarterback and potential Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller was lost for the year to injury. Then, backup quarterback J.T. Barrett struggled mightily in a shocking loss to Virginia Tech, and the playoff hopes looked all but dead.
However, Barrett elevated his play above any quarterback not named Marcus Mariota and would have likely been a Heisman finalist were it not for a devastating injury in the win over Michigan.
Somehow, the Buckeyes rose from the perceived dead again and destroyed Wisconsin, 59-0, in the Big Ten Championship Game without Miller or Barrett. Third-stringer Cardale Jones lit up the Badgers secondary and won the game’s MVP award as a result.
The cherry on top of all the drama was a tense debate between the Buckeyes, TCU and Baylor for the final playoff spot.
Now that both teams are into the Sugar Bowl, the main storyline will be the clash between Saban and Meyer. The two squared off in SEC Championship Games when Meyer was at Florida and boast more than 300 wins and six national titles between them.
Despite the coaching matchup, the key to the game will be Ohio State’s dynamic offense against Alabama’s stout defense.
ESPN Stats & Info noted something has to give:
This is a clash between the No. 4 scoring offense in the country in Ohio State and the No. 4 scoring defense in Alabama. No wonder this matchup is so enticing.
Ohio State boasts the nation’s No. 11 rushing offense and will likely rely on the offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott, but Alabama’s one potential weakness is its pass defense. The Crimson Tide are 59th in the country against the pass, which means Devin Smith, Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall could be in store for big days.
Jones’ biggest weapon in the game against Wisconsin was the deep ball, especially to Smith, and he may need to connect on a few to give the Buckeyes the victory in New Orleans.
The best way for the Crimson Tide to counter that is with a devastating pass rush. Between Jonathan Allen, Xzavier Dickson, Ryan Anderson, A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed, the Crimson Tide have plenty of rushers to confuse and overwhelm Jones in his second start.
On the other side, Ohio State has to pick its poison when Alabama has the ball.
Meyer certainly understands that, per Michael Casagrande of AL.com:
"I see an extremely fast team. They've got the big Power-I, saw a big back (Derrick Henry) running through people yesterday. But the thing that catches your eye is the athleticism and the quarterback (Blake Sims), I guess, played another position, but he looks phenomenal.
And then Cooper is one of the best receivers ever to play college football and they use him at every possible ... they use him as a match-up guy and quick screens, but they obviously ... he's the best down-field threat in the game right now.
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Amari Cooper is the best player in college football this side of Mariota, and Ohio State may require multiple defenders shadowing him at all times. The problem is, that would open up the running game for T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
The Buckeyes rush defense has been Jekyll and Hyde all season after giving up more than 200 yards on the ground to Indiana and Minnesota but somehow holding superhuman Melvin Gordon to only 71 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game. Which defense shows up will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the Sugar Bowl.
It will be easier to stop Cooper if the pass rush gets to Blake Sims early and cuts down on the amount of time the dynamic receiver has to get open. That means Joey Bosa, who racked up 13.5 sacks this year, needs to get pressure on almost every play.
The Buckeyes will connect on some big strikes against a vulnerable Alabama secondary and ride Elliott, who just carved up a formidable Wisconsin front seven for 220 rushing yards. This game will not be a blowout by any means, especially since Meyer and offensive coordinator Tom Herman have so much time to prepare and get Jones ready.
However, Jones will only be making his second career start and is yet to face any real adversity considering how easy the win over Wisconsin came. Alabama’s defense is the best Ohio State will face all season, and Jones will turn it over in a critical moment in the second half.
Sims and Cooper will make the Buckeyes pay on the other end.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Ohio State 28
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