Bowl Projections 2014: Playoff Predictions and Championship Odds
Weeks of heated debate led to this. The selection committee unveiled its final College Football Playoff rankings on Sunday, with Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State occupying the top four seeds.
Fans and analysts projected potential semifinal matchups over the past couple of months, but now everybody has something tangible to sink his or her teeth into and examine. The Crimson Tide and Buckeyes will meet in the Rose Bowl, with the Seminoles and Ducks facing off in the Sugar Bowl.
Both games are worthy of being a national championship, and you can see any one of the quartet emerging as the last team standing. That's evident in the relative closeness of their odds to win the national championship. (Note: Championship odds are courtesy of Vegas Insider.)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 5/4 |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks | 8/5 |
| 3 | Florida State Seminoles | 15/2 |
| 4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 11/2 |
Below, you'll find brief previews for this year's semifinals.
Sugar Bowl
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
It may sound reductive, but this game will likely come down to who has the better quarterback.
When teams throw Blake Sims out of his comfort zone, Alabama's offense takes a step back. Some of Sims' worst performances this year have coincided with the Crimson Tide's closest games.
The senior quarterback was 19-of-31 for 228 yards and an interception in the 23-17 loss to Ole Miss. In the narrow victories over Arkansas and LSU, he was a combined 31-of-66 for 370 yards.
Jacob Coker nearly replaced Sims early in the third quarter of the Iron Bowl, at which point the Tigers led 33-21. Sims eventually recovered and Alabama outscored Auburn 34-18 in the second half. It was a real Jekyll-and-Hyde performance.
Before the SEC title game, 'Bama head coach Nick Saban alluded to how important it is for Sims to maintain his composure and remain confident on the field, via Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman:
On the other side, you've got Cardale Jones, who, despite his performance in the Big Ten Championship Game, remains largely untested in such a high-pressure situation. He's attempted 36 passes in his college career, 17 of which came against Wisconsin.
We're talking about a quarterback making his second career start in a national semifinal game against the top-ranked team in the country. That raises a red flag no matter what Jones did in his first start.
On the other hand, you could spin Jones' inexperience in a positive way. As Aaron Suttles of TideSports.com noted, the Tide staff doesn't have a ton of tape from which to devise a defensive game plan:
Jones isn't a carbon copy of J.T. Barrett, either, which means Saban can't expect to see the same offense Ohio State used the entire season. Plus, the Buckeyes' dominant performance against the Badgers meant Urban Meyer didn't have to open up his entire playbook and use a bunch of different looks with Jones.
That element of surprise could play majorly in OSU's favor.
You can't beat a team as good as Alabama with shaky quarterback play. Missouri, Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M all learned that the hard way. Jones doesn't have to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, but he can't complete fewer than 50 percent of his passes and have more interceptions than he does touchdowns.
Similarly, Sims can't let his emotions override his brain. That's when he makes silly mistakes and tries to force throws that aren't really there.
"Sometimes, it's a big game, and he starts putting a lot pressure on himself, and he gets a little anxious," Saban said of his QB, per ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough. "I don't think he really processes and makes as good of decisions when he gets like that."
Alabama has one of the most efficient offenses in the country when Sims is on his game. When he's not, you get the first half against Auburn.
In a head-to-head battle between Jones and Sims, you give the slight edge to Sims. Neither team owns a discernible advantage over the other, so Sims outshining Jones could well decide the outcome.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Ohio State 24
Rose Bowl
No. 2 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles
Throughout the season, Florida State's built a reputation for starting games slowly. Then head coach Jimbo Fisher makes the necessary halftime adjustments, and the Seminoles look like a different team in the second half.
So far, FSU hasn't given itself more trouble than it can handle.
Against Oregon, a slow start could be fatal. The Ducks are capable of scoring a lot of points in a short amount a time. After a few bad drives, Florida State could be looking at an early 21-0 or 24-7 hole.
Oregon turned a 7-0 deficit into a 24-7 lead over Utah in a span of 12 game minutes, while a slim 6-0 lead over Arizona became a 23-0 edge in the final seven minutes and 27 seconds of the first half in the Pac-12 title game.
If the Ducks build an early double-digit lead, they won't fade like Miami or Louisville did.
A big reason Florida State doesn't want to be staring at a massive first-half deficit is Royce Freeman. The freshman running back improved as the season went on, running for over 100 yards in each of his last three games:
Florida State's run defense hasn't exactly been stout, giving up an average of 160.1 yards a game.
The 'Noles didn't win the ACC title because they shut down the Georgia Tech running game. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 331 yards on 59 carries in a 37-35 loss.
Between Freeman and Marcus Mariota, Oregon could carve up the Seminoles defense.
For Florida State, the game plan starts with slowing down Mariota. He's the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and makes the Ducks go.
Fisher wasn't shy in his praise of the junior quarterback, per Rob Moseley of GoDucks.com:
When you think back to Oregon's rough patch earlier in the season, the team really had a hard time supplying Mariota with consistent protection. He was under duress quite often, and that set off a chain reaction that affected every facet of the team.
Bleacher Report's Jason Gold wrote in his Rose Bowl preview that getting after the QB will be one of FSU's keys to victory:
"If there’s one area where Oregon’s offense has really struggled this year it is in protecting Marcus Mariota. The Ducks’ offensive line has allowed Mariota to be sacked 29 times this season.
If the Seminoles are able to get pressure on Mariota, flush him out of the pocket and contain his running ability, they may be able to slow down Oregon’s high-octane offense.
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The Florida State pass rush will be getting a boost in the form of Eddie Goldman's return. The junior defensive tackle left the ACC championship with an injury, but Fisher's confident that he'll be back soon, per Tim Linafelt of Seminoles.com:
The Seminoles will need every healthy body they can get to stop an Oregon offense that looks to be truly hitting its stride for the first time all season.
Although Florida State is still unbeaten, the Ducks are arguably the hotter team. And with the Seminoles' continued problems in the first half, Oregon gets the nod.
The Ducks will take an early lead, and while FSU will claw its way back, the Pac-12 champions will wrap up the victory late.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Florida State 34
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
