Citrus Bowl 2015 : Preview, Predictions for Minnesota vs. Missouri
While it may not be one of the “New Year’s Six” bowl games, the Citrus Bowl between Minnesota and Missouri still pits a couple of Top 25 opponents against one another.
Formerly the Capital One Bowl, this game has featured a slew of top programs in recent years.
- 2014: South Carolina and Wisconsin
- 2013: Georgia and Nebraska
- 2012: South Carolina and Nebraska
- 2011: Alabama and Michigan State
- 2010: Penn State and LSU
- 2009: Georgia and Michigan State
- 2008: Michigan and Florida
- 2007: Wisconsin and Arkansas
- 2006: Wisconsin and Auburn
- 2005: Iowa and LSU
This year, No. 25 Minnesota battles No. 16 Missouri on New Year’s Day in Orlando. Some projections from Sunday morning pegged a Clemson-Missouri matchup, but with No. 7 Mississippi State jumping No. 8 Michigan State in the final College Football Playoff rankings, the Big Ten retained its slot in the Citrus Bowl.
"ACC would have gotten Big Ten's spot in Citrus if Mich St was in Orange. B1G and ACC combined have one more bowl-eligible team than berths.
— Luke DeCock (@LukeDeCock) December 7, 2014"
The Golden Gophers finished the regular season at 8-4 after a 6-1 start. Minnesota alternated wins with losses through its final six games of the regular season, most recently falling to Wisconsin in Madison, 34-24, on Thanksgiving weekend. Minnesota’s bid in the Citrus Bowl is its first New Year’s Day bowl game since the 1962 Rose Bowl.
Missouri, meanwhile, again fell short of a conference championship, but head coach Gary Pinkel’s squad reached the 10-win mark, the fifth time Pinkel has done so in 14 seasons at the helm of the Tigers. Alabama rolled through the Tigers, 42-13, in the SEC Championship on Saturday, snapping Missouri’s six-game winning streak.
Let's break down this year's Citrus Bowl.
Date: Thursday, January 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Place: Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7This New Year's Day matchup should be a good one between a pair of teams that, in some regards, have exceeded expectations this season. Minnesota was picked to finish as low as fifth in the Big Ten West in a preseason media poll. Missouri was tabbed to finish fourth in the SEC East.
Minnesota's Keys to Victory
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Force Turnovers
The Minnesota defense has forced an impressive 28 turnovers so far this season (15 fumbles recovered and 13 interceptions). Missouri, on the other hand, is one of the best teams in the nation when it comes to ball security. Darius White’s fourth-quarter fumble for the Tigers on Saturday was just Missouri’s third lost fumble this season. And the Tigers have only put it on the deck 10 total times in 2014.
Find Maxx Williams
Minnesota’s run-based offense relies on Cobb and its veteran offensive line, which has combined to make 164 career starts. Tight end Maxx Williams, an All-Big Ten selection, is a John Mackey Award finalist as just a sophomore. Of his 29 catches, seven have gone for touchdowns, and 23 have resulted in either a touchdown or first down.
Missouri's Keys to Victory
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Stop the Run
In 12 games this season, Minnesota racked up 2,695 rushing yards, an average of 224.6 per game, to go along with 31 scores on the ground.
Running back David Cobb battled through injury concerns to tally 83 yards on 15 carries against Wisconsin in the regular-season finale, setting Minnesota’s single-season rushing record in the process. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Mitch Leidner is a dual-threat option, and he has notched 10 rushing touchdowns this year.
On Saturday against Alabama, the Tigers surrendered 242 rushing yards to Crimson Tide backs Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon. Missouri defensive coordinator Dave Steckel must have his unit ready for the Golden Gophers on the ground.
Finish Strong
With four minutes, 37 seconds remaining in the third quarter on Saturday in the SEC Championship, Missouri had trimmed Alabama’s lead to 21-13.
The Crimson Tide responded with a 10-play, 64-yard touchdown drive. Missouri punted after six plays and 17 yards. Starting with the ball at its own 10-yard line, Alabama then marched on a methodical 90-yard drive, capped off by a 26-yard touchdown run by Henry.
“They answered,” Pinkel said to reporters of Alabama’s response. “They did what they had to do. If we could have gotten a stop, could have gotten good field position, if—all the ifs you could have. But those two, to me, those were two statement drives from their standpoint.”
Alabama scored the game’s final 21 points.
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Minnesota Players to Watch
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Running Back David Cobb
Cobb was listed as questionable heading into the regular-season finale against Wisconsin, but the senior played and produced against the Badgers after injuring his hamstring against Nebraska. A healthy Cobb is a huge boost for the Minnesota offense, which has received more than half of its production from the Cobb-led rushing attack.
Linebacker Damien Wilson
Golden Gophers senior linebacker Damien Wilson earned a spot on the All-Big Ten First Team (according to the media) after racking up 111 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss. For good measure, Wilson led Minnesota with four sacks.
Missouri Players to Watch
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Quarterback Maty Mauk
Maty Mauk piled up 272 passing yards against the Crimson Tide on just 16 completions, thanks in large part to his connection with receiver Jimmie Hunt, who grabbed six passes for 169 yards—highlighted by a 63-yard gain.
“Maty made some plays too,” Pinkel said to reporters. “Some of those, he went outside the pocket and found him down feel. Jimmie certainly made great catches. Maty can do that.”
The sophomore is 13-4 in his career as a starter at Missouri.
Defensive Lineman Shane Ray
Redshirt junior defensive lineman Shane Ray was ejected for targeting in the second quarter of Missouri’s loss to Alabama on Saturday. Though he missed the remainder of the game, Ray will be eligible, by rule, to play the entire Citrus Bowl against Minnesota.
Ray has amassed an impressive 14 sacks and 21 tackles for loss this season.
“That's what you have other players for,” Pinkel said to reporters afterward. “They'll go in and play, and just no excuses. That didn't affect a lot of the play that we had. We just didn't play very well.”
Regardless of Pinkel’s take on the impact of Ray’s ejection, his return is a huge lift for the strong Missouri defense.
What They're Saying
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"Our mission was to win the Big Ten championship," Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill said following the loss to Wisconsin, according to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune. "I don’t think anybody else believed we’d have the opportunity to do that, but the kids did. We’ve got a lot of room to improve, and we’re disappointed, but also our season isn’t over."
Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel shared these thoughts with reporters after the SEC Championship:
"First of all, Alabama played very well. They're a great football team. Congratulations to them. I thought that -- we made a run at it in the third quarter, when we got a touchdown and a field goal. Then they answered with a 65-yard drive, and we went out and punted, and then they got a 90-yard drive. So they responded really like you want a football team to do. So I'm disappointed how we played, and I've got to do a better job."
"
Mizzou Football tweeted executive associate athletic director Bryan Maggard's thoughts on the upcoming bowl game:
""As a program we couldn't be more excited to play this game. This is our 10th bowl game in 14 seasons with @GaryPinkel." - @MaggardB
— Mizzou Football (@MizzouFootball) December 7, 2014"
Prediction
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While Minnesota head coach and Big Ten Coach of the Year Jerry Kill continues to do a solid job with the Golden Gophers, Missouri appears poised to scoop up win No. 11 this season.
Missouri’s strong defense, which should have a chip on its shoulder following the 42-point effort against Alabama, could be the difference here. In the weeks leading up to the SEC Championship, the Tigers allowed just 14 points to Arkansas, 21 to Tennessee, 27 to Texas A&M, 14 to Vanderbilt and 13 to Florida.
The Minnesota offense has only topped 30 points once in the last five games—a 51-point outburst against Iowa in early November. But, if the Golden Gophers can control the clock and engage Williams, they could take it to the Tigers.
Prediction: Missouri 31, Minnesota 20
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
