Outback Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Wisconsin vs. Auburn
College Football Playoff semifinal games may steal the show on New Year's Day, but the Outback Bowl and the stout running games of Wisconsin and Auburn should not be overlooked.
This annual matchup between Big Ten and SEC powers will ring in 2015 with a heavy dose of hard-nosed running in two varieties. Wisconsin will rely on star running back Melvin Gordon, who leads the nation with 2,336 rushing yards on the season. Auburn, on the other hand, will use a read-option attack led by quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Cameron Artis-Payne.
The two teams combined for 18 wins this season, but both squads will look for one more to close out the year.
Here's what you need to know about the game:
Date: Thursday, January 1
Time: Noon ET
Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Auburn IMG Radio, Wisconsin Badger Sports Network
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7The graphic above shows how these two teams compare statistically on the whole, but it's important to note that both of these teams have been plagued by tremendously volatile performances.
Wisconsin, for example, looked fantastic in a 59-24 dismantling of Nebraska. The Badgers looked terrible in losses to Northwestern and Ohio State.
Auburn, on the other hand, was impressive in wins over ranked Kansas State, LSU and Ole Miss squads. A lopsided loss to Georgia and a setback to unranked Texas A&M, however, told different stories.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Shake It Off
The Badgers were absolutely manhandled by Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, and truth be told, the composition of this Auburn team isn't all that different than what the Buckeyes displayed. The Tigers, like Ohio State, are big on both sides of the ball and will look to dominate the line of scrimmage while showing explosiveness on offense.
Wisconsin must put the 59-0 loss to the Buckeyes behind them while remembering the very real threat that accompanies an early deficit. If the Badgers can stay close for the first quarter, they'll find a groove, and that should be feasible.
Defending the Pass
The narrative surrounding this game will focus on these teams' rushing attacks, which both rank in the nation's top 15. But the Badgers must be prepared for a prolific, if rarely relied upon, Auburn passing attack as well.
If the Badgers get the Tigers behind the chains and for 3rd-and-long scenarios by limiting first- and second-down runs, they must find a way to get off the field against Nick Marshall. Marshall, who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes this season, is more than capable of hitting a deep pass, extending drives and disheartening a defense.
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Contain Gordon
As ridiculous as it may sound, some teams have been able to contain Melvin Gordon this season. Sure, he's racked up more than 2,300 rushing yards and scored 26 touchdowns on the ground, but Ohio State and (surprisingly) Western Illinois did not seem phased by his greatness.
Against the Buckeyes in the conference championship, Gordon accounted for just 76 yards on 26 carries. Against Western Illinois, he racked up a meager 38 yards on 17 touches. The common denominator in those two games: Gordon failed to break a long run.
If Auburn can keep him from exploding, it will be able to stunt the Badgers offense. That being said, Gordon registered a run of 40 or more yards in nine games this season.
Be Auburn on Offense
Very few teams have kept Auburn's offense in check over the past two seasons. Athletically speaking, there's no reason to expect Wisconsin to present any more opposition than the Tigers are accustomed to in the SEC.
The challenge for Auburn (and all teams) after a long layover between games is staying sharp in execution. If the Tigers can do that, they'll rack up yards and points aplenty.
If Auburn is true to itself on the offensive side of the ball, coach Gus Malzahn's squad should put up more than 40 points and in doing so present a strong case for earning a victory.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Melvin Gordon
It's hard to say more about Gordon than his statistics already say:
- 309 Carries
- 2,336 Rushing Yards
- 7.6 Yards per Carry
- 26 Rushing Touchdowns
- Five 200-Yard Games
And yet, his big-play ability defies statistical comparison. Gordon, even more so than any running back in the country, is truly a threat to score every time he touches the football. His patience and vision give way to elite elusiveness and highlights galore. Why wouldn't you watch this guy?
Michael Caputo
After giving up 59 points to a third-string quarterback and Ohio State, it's hard to say this Badger defense is "underrated" per se. That being said, it's certainly underappreciated. In that light, Caputo epitomizes the unit.
A 6'1", 212-pound defensive back, Caputo is a sure-tackling, scrappy athlete who finds himself constantly around the football even from his spot in the secondary. Caputo has recorded 99 tackles this season, and he'll be counted upon to come up in run support and prevent the deep ball against Auburn.
Based on what he's accomplished this year, he'll be more than ready. Caputo has forced two fumbles, recovered four more and registered one interception on the season.
Auburn Players to Watch
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Nick Marshall
In two years as Auburn's starting quarterback, Marshall has emerged as one of the most exciting players in the Southeastern Conference. Against Wisconsin, he'll get another chance to showcase his dual-threat skills in front of a different, national audience.
Marshall is underrated as a passer, but his ability to read, react and run (when necessary) out of the option really sets him apart. He's accounted for 55 total touchdowns over the past two seasons and will likely add three or four more on January 1.
Cameron Artis-Payne
Of course, the Tigers' leading rusher should not be ignored either. Artis-Payne has run for just shy of 1,500 yards this season and will welcome an opportunity to run head-to-head with Gordon, the nation's best running back.
Artis-Payne is not all that big, but he's incredibly strong, and it takes a lot of contact to bring him down. He accounted for more than 100 rushing yards on eight occasions this season and ran for a career-high 221 yards against Texas A&M in November.
If Artis-Payne outruns Gordon, the Tigers will get the victory.
What They're Saying
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Badgers Excited for Outback Bowl
According to UWBadgers.com, Wisconsin is excited about the January 1 battle with Auburn.
"It’s a tremendous honor to be selected to play in the Outback Bowl and a great reward for our players and the terrific season they have had,” Wisconsin head coach Gary Anderson offered. “Tampa is a great destination for our team and fans and Auburn is a very quality opponent from a great conference. We are looking forward to the matchup.”
For two strong programs that rarely play, such a meeting is a reward for fans as well. Wisconsin and Auburn last met in the Capital One Bowl following the 2005 season. In total, the two teams have played just three times; each team claims one victory and one game resulted in a tie.
Wisconsin Is a Very Good Team
Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn offered similar sentiments and excitement for the bowl itself and the opponent. He called Wisconsin a "very good" team, according to Charles Goldberg of AuburnTigers.com.
Despite a poor showing against Ohio State, this 10-win Badger team should not be ignored.
Prediction
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It's easy to forget just how good this Auburn team is and how poised for contention the Tigers once were.
In fact, heading into a November 8 game against Texas A&M, Auburn was ranked third in the nation with a 7-1 record. Two late-game fumbles doomed the Tigers in that game and for the remainder of the season as they suffered two more setbacks to rivals Georgia and Alabama.
But the broader point is that Auburn once had a legitimate chance at a College Football Playoff spot. Wisconsin never showed that type of ceiling. Accordingly, if the Tigers can be some semblance of their potential, they should run away from Wisconsin with a more versatile offense.
To be sure, the Badgers can't be written off, and bowl games have a tendency to bring out erratic wackiness—even from college football's most disciplined teams. But this should be a victory for the Tigers.
Final Score: Auburn 45, Wisconsin 31
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
