Allstate Sugar Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Alabama vs. Ohio State
There was immense drama for one team and a casual golf clap for another.
No. 1 Alabama was all but a sure thing to make the college football playoff. The drama was at No. 4.
The lucky team resided in Columbus, Ohio, where Ohio State got the last spot in the inaugural field.
The Buckeyes’ season hasn’t been short on drama. They lost preseason Heisman hopeful quarterback Braxton Miller before the season started. Backup J.T. Barrett grabbed the reins, and after a shaky start to the season, he was vaulted into Heisman consideration himself but then sustained an injury of his own against Michigan. But third-string Cardale Jones led Ohio State to a 59-0 dismantling of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game that cemented its playoff spot.
“With the championship game, Ohio State demonstrated that they were a total team,” playoff chair Jeff Long said on ESPN shortly after the field announcement.
On the other side are the Crimson Tide, which suffered a lone blemish against Ole Miss but has looked dominant down the stretch, winning tough games at LSU, at home against Mississippi State and against Auburn. An SEC Championship Game win over Missouri sent Alabama into the playoff.
It’s a revival of the Nick Saban vs. Urban Meyer rivalry, which peaked with back-to-back SEC Championship Games in 2008 and 2009.
Can the Big Ten’s best trump the mighty SEC?
Date: January 1, 2015
Time: 7:30 p.m. CT
Place: Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Check out a graphical stat breakdown of Alabama vs. Ohio State.
It's clear to see that there is a bigger discrepancy when Alabama is on defense than when Ohio State is. The Crimson Tide have been stout in that regard.
But their Achilles' heel stands out.
Ohio State is passing the ball just a little bit more than the rate at which Alabama is defending it. That could be something the Buckeyes take advantage of.
Alabama Keys to Victory
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Rattle Cardale Jones
Nick Saban and Kirby Smart’s defense should be licking their chops at the chance to face such an inexperienced quarterback on this big of a stage. Xzavier Dickson, Jonathan Allen and the rest of the Alabama pass rush need to disrupt Cardale Jones’ rhythm in the pocket. This can force bad throws in the moment and cause some happy feet and indecision as the game wears on.
Cool Hand Luke
Saban said on CBS before the SEC Championship Game that he wanted Blake Sims to be “Cool Hand Luke.” Sims, though, didn’t get the reference. Still, the sentiment surely remains for the postseason. Sims has bounced back from adversity several times this year, whether from an interception or scoreboard deficit. He’ll likely face some more against a good Ohio State team and can’t get rattled by the big stage.
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Stop the Run
It’s easy to get caught up in the exciting play of Blake Sims and Amari Cooper. But Alabama’s bread and butter is still its run game. Ohio State ranked just fifth in the Big Ten in run defense. The Buckeyes gave up 200-plus yards on the ground to Indiana and Minnesota at the end of the season. But they bowed up against Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin, holding the Badgers to just 71 on the ground. Which run defense will show up in New Orleans?
Attack the Secondary
Alabama’s weakness on defense is against the pass. It is No. 11 nationally in total defense but dropped to No. 59 against the pass after Missouri put up 272 yards against them on Saturday. Teams have had success deep against Alabama, especially recently. Jones and receivers Devin Smith and Michael Thomas will need to click for Ohio State to have offensive success against the Crimson Tide.
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Alabama Players to Watch
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Blake Sims
At this point, there is no reason to doubt that Blake Sims can lead Alabama to a title. He’s been the Crimson Tide’s rock on offense down the stretch, running Lane Kiffin’s offense to near-perfection. And Sims will be under the microscope yet again in college football’s biggest stage. Can he join A.J. McCarron and Greg McElroy as the great Alabama quarterbacks of the Saban era?
Alabama’s Pass-Rushers
The group is too much of a collective effort to name one individually. Xzavier Dickson, Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson are the leaders of the group statistically, but guys like A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed have consistently pushed the pocket to force that pressure. It’s a deep and talented group that can make life miserable for a very young quarterback.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Cardale Jones
Even with a stellar showing in his first start in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes quarterback is the wild card in this whole matchup. Jones went 12-of-17 for 257 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions when he was thrown into the fire with a fairly simplified offense. Otherwise, Jones hasn’t seen much significant game action in his career. Next up: Saban and Alabama. No pressure.
Joey Bosa
Bosa might be the best defensive player in the country. He’s registered 13.5 sacks on the year and 20 tackles for a loss. Simply put: He’s a player you have to account for on every snap. He’ll be going up against redshirt senior right tackle Austin Shepherd and freshman left tackle Cam Robinson. Alabama’s offensive line will have its work cut out for it to keep its star quarterback upright.
What They're Saying
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Alabama coach Nick Saban, on ESPN, about how he will game-plan with potentially two games in front of him:
"I don’t really think the first game-planning is going to be a lot different. If we were playing in a New Year’s Day bowl game, it would be very similar from a planning standpoint. I think the big change is going to be the turnaround and getting to the next game and planning for that game. Because in the national championship games that we’ve played in, we’ve had over 30 days to prepare for those games, and I think that’s very helpful and have been very helpful to our staff.
"
Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, on the improvement of his team throughout the season:
"This is without question the most improved from start to finish team that I've ever been around. To see them operate in all facets of the game at a high, high level from our punter to the way we played defense, then offense was incredible. Our third quarterback, two Heisman candidates out, this guy comes in and plays like that.
All I can speak to is I've been around teams that have competed and won national championships. This team, the way it's playing right now, is one of the top teams in America.
"
Prediction
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Alabama 35, Ohio State 28
Even with an inexperienced quarterback, Meyer will figure out a way to move the ball some against Alabama’s defense. Jones will make throws that will open eyes, but his mistakes will be the difference in the game. Alabama will force some interceptions and capitalize against a stout Ohio State defense. The Crimson Tide will advance to the first-ever College Football Playoff championship game.
Marc Torrence is the Alabama lead writer for Bleacher Report. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Urban Meyer quote comes from Ohio State lead writer Ben Axelrod All stats come from CFBStats.
Follow on Twitter @marctorrence.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
