Bowl Projections 2014: Early Odds, Predictions for Playoffs and Top Games
College football has taken the magic of Selection Sunday in college basketball, whittled it down to four teams to provide more drama than you can find in an Aaron Sorkin movie and wrapped it in a nice bow that can be talked about for long after the announcement is made.
With the final College Football Playoff rankings being released and the 2014-15 bowl schedule set, it's time to start the analysis of what will happen and what games to focus on closely. While the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will get all the attention, since they are the semifinal games, they aren't the only big games.
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There's nothing better than bowl season, especially this year, so here is an early look at odds and predictions for the games that have us most excited.
| Game | Matchup | Date | Odds | Prediction |
| Rose Bowl (Semifinal No. 1) | No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State | January 1, 2015 | Oregon (-7.5) | Oregon, 37-23 |
| Sugar Bowl (Semifinal No. 2) | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State | January 1, 2015 | Alabama (-10) | Alabama, 34-13 |
| Fiesta Bowl | No. 10 Arizona vs. No. 20 Boise State | December 31, 2014 | Arizona (-4) | Arizona, 34-20 |
| Orange Bowl | No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech | December 31, 2014 | Miss. St (-7) | Georgia Tech, 34-31 |
| Cotton Bowl | No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 5 Baylor | January 1, 2015 | Baylor (-1.5) | Baylor, 45-35 |
| Peach Bowl | No. 6 TCU vs. No. No. 9 Mississippi | December 31, 2014 | TCU (-3) | TCU, 27-24 |
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
Even though traditional bowl rules have fallen by the wayside since the BCS came around, it's nice to see the Rose Bowl still feature a Pac-12 team. Oregon has been tapped for this spot since it reclaimed the No. 2 spot in the rankings November 9 and secured it by destroying Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
No team enters the playoff hotter than the Ducks, who have won eight straight games and the last five by at least 24 points. Marcus Mariota has been more than just one of the best players in college football this season, as SportsCenter tweeted out before Friday's game against Arizona:
Even in weather conditions that were less than ideal at Levi's Stadium against Arizona, Mariota added five total touchdowns (two passing, three rushing) to his career total and had 313 yards passing in the game. It was his third straight game with at least 300 passing yards.
However, Oregon is here because of a revamped defense that flies under the radar because of how potent the offense is, as Lindsay Schnell of Sports Illustrated wrote:
"Oregon bottled up Arizona superstar running back Nick Wilson, didn’t let any Wildcat receivers catch a pass longer than 10 yards and sacked quarterback Anu Solomon four times. It’s easy to say Arizona had a rough night. But that was due mostly to a defense that sent a message Friday night: This team is more than a snazzy offense.
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How fitting that Oregon's matchup is against Florida State. Mariota is the likely Heisman winner this season, going against the 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston.
The Seminoles aren't always pretty to watch, but all that matters is winning games. No one has found a way to do that better than Jimbo Fisher's team, which comes into the playoff as the only undefeated team in FBS.
Despite a 13-0 record, the deck is stacked against Florida State. In fact, per SportsCenter, the Seminoles will likely find themselves in a spot they haven't been in a very long time:
There's nothing sexy about Florida State's resume. It did get a good win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, along with wins over Clemson and Louisville, but the Seminoles will be up against it in Pasadena.
Winston remains an enigma, going from a four-interception game against Florida in which he looked lost to a near-perfect game against the Yellow Jackets that reminded everyone what makes him so special. He needs to be the second guy against Oregon for the Seminoles to have a chance.
Florida State's defense has regressed considerably from last year, allowing 23 points per game in 2014. Fisher's defense has given up 684 rushing yards in its last three games, going against an Oregon offense that averages 237.3 yards per game on the ground and 46.3 points.
It's been an incredible run for the Seminoles, but the Ducks are simply better and will prove it on New Year's Day.
Oregon 37, Florida State 23
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
It's strange to look at how dominant Alabama has been under Nick Saban, then realize it has won only three SEC championships since 2007. There was no doubt about the Crimson Tide in 2014, as they knocked Missouri around early and often to secure their spot as the No. 1 seed.
The unique thing about this year's Alabama team is how it's had to rely more on offense to win than in past years. Saban has always had solid offensive teams with efficient quarterbacks, but Blake Sims has put this team at a different level.
It's also a testament to the job Lane Kiffin has done in his first year as offensive coordinator. Even though it's been easy to bash the controversial former Oakland Raiders head coach, Saban said after the SEC Championship Game he had no doubts about him, via B/R's Barrett Sallee.
"I think I got exactly what I expected," Saban said on Friday. "I don't think anybody else expected what I expected, to the point where I even got criticized for doing it by a lot of people."
Another thing that's helped Alabama's offensive evolution is Amari Cooper, who has had the best season ever by a Crimson Tide receiver, via ESPN Stats & Info:
Alabama still has the defensive chops to shut an offense down, though Auburn did expose some holes in the team's coverage down the field. That's where you see the value of an upgraded offense come into play, because the Crimson Tide are capable of putting up a lot of points when they need to.
Ohio State earned its spot in this game with a 59-0 drubbing of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes should be riding high now, but they will have a much tougher time against Alabama's defense.
First, Urban Meyer's team ran for 301 yards on 38 carries against the Badgers. Alabama ranks second in the country in rushing yards allowed per game and yards allowed per carry, per Yahoo Sports. Those running lanes aren't going to be open for the Buckeyes in this game.
The ripple effect of not being able to run the ball is that it limits the effectiveness of play-action passing, which the Buckeyes were able to exploit against Wisconsin. Alabama is just a bad stylistic matchup for Ohio State, to say nothing of Saban having three weeks to prepare for Cardale Jones, which is why this game won't be close.
Alabama 34, Ohio State 13
Best Non-Playoff Game: No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 8 Michigan State (Cotton Bowl)
Even though Baylor came up just short of its ultimate goal, it will have a chance to make a loud statement to anyone who doubted its credentials against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
The danger with a game like this is neither team being able to get pumped up for a lesser bowl than either would have liked. Baylor was hoping/expecting to have a shot at the national title. Now, it doesn't even get a bid in one of the major bowls, though the Cotton Bowl is in the Bears' backyard in Arlington, Texas.
Here is what Baylor head coach Art Briles said after his team defeated Kansas State on Saturday, via ESPN's College GameDay:
Briles' team has to go from the high of one of the best days in the history of Waco to one of the most disappointing.
Michigan State also has to be wondering where things went wrong, as the Spartans seemed like a safe bet to play in the Orange Bowl before the invitation was given to Mississippi State.
On paper, the matchup is fantastic. Baylor's offense leads the nation in scoring with 48.8 points per game and ranks fifth in passing yards per game with 346.2. Michigan State isn't lacking for offense, averaging 43.1 points per game, but the Spartans make their money on defense.
In fact, ignoring their two losses for a moment, Michigan State held eight opponents under 20 points. It wasn't the greatest competition, with teams like Michigan, Maryland and Rutgers included, but it was still a good accomplishment for any defense.
As far as those losses at Oregon and against Ohio State go, the Spartans aren't likely to have the same problems with Baylor. The Ducks and Buckeyes featured dual-threat quarterbacks capable of extending plays.
While Bryce Petty is a terrific quarterback, he's a traditional dropback passer who sits in the pocket and waits for plays to develop.
In addition to having high-scoring offenses, the gap between Petty and Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook isn't as significant as you might think, via Matt Hoeppner of ISportsWeb.com:
Both teams enter the Cotton Bowl on a relative high note. Michigan State has won its last three games, while Baylor is riding a five-game streak. These teams are capable of lighting up a scoreboard, though one has been more adept at keeping opponents out of the end zone.
The Bears will have to be at their best to conquer the Spartans, which they will be in a close game that gets decided by a late touchdown.
Baylor 45, Michigan State 35
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