College Football Playoff Championship 2015: Matchups Schedule, Early Predictions
The moment that college football fans have been waiting years to see is nearly upon us. Instead of letting the computers decide one matchup, things will be settled on the field between the four best teams in the country in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Not everyone is happy with the top four chosen by the committee, but that was always going to happen (based on the way things played out). Sometimes unusual things happen in college football. It just so happened that the first year with a playoff provided more unusual things than normal.
Since the committee wasn't going to make everyone happy, its only job was to make sure that it got the four best teams in the two semifinal games. The outside noise was always going to be loud from two schools, but now the focus belongs on what will happen.
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| Date | Game | Location | Start Time (ET) | Network |
| January 1, 2015 | Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State | Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA) | 5 p.m. | ESPN |
| January 1, 2015 | Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State | Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA) | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| January 12, 2015 | National Championship: Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner | AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX) | TBD | ESPN |
Here's the graphic released on ESPN, via College GameDay:
Early Predictions
The Committee Will Be Proved Right
When you have six teams for four spots, it's impossible to do something that will make everyone happy. Besides, since when are sports fans ever really happy? The magic of these games—even more than actually watching them—is the discussion it provides.
Think of all the time that's been spent dwelling on Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor and TCU over the last few weeks. It may drive you mad, but there's no denying the impact it's had.
Despite initial reservations about the way these rankings have played out over the last two weeks, the selection committee will be proved right by taking Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, which measures how many points above or below average a team is, the only playoff team outside the top seven is Florida State at No. 10. However, it was impossible to leave the Seminoles out because they are undefeated and the defending national champions.
Oregon and Alabama rank first and second on the list, so it's no surprise they are the top two seeds (even if the order is reversed). The gap between Ohio State (No. 3), TCU (No. 5) and Baylor (No. 7) is seven tenths of a point. That's hardly a significant margin.
Therefore, the whole process becomes a matter of what you value in a team. Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com highlighted the difference between TCU and Baylor:
"But after beating Kansas State, the Bears now have three victories over top-20 opponents (they also beat No. 20 Oklahoma), compared to TCU's two. And Baylor's head-to-head matchup over the Horned Frogs has to matter more now. So what if TCU controlled much of their game in Waco, Texas? Is the committee really going to penalize the Bears for staging one of the greatest comebacks in college football history, in which they came back from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to win?
"
Schlabach then offered an alternative choice for the committee, if it wanted to make the Big 12 when it failed to declare "one true champion."
"There is an escape plan from this predicament for the selection committee -- it can simply choose Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the most unsightly loss among the contenders, falling to Virginia Tech 35-21 at home on Sept. 6. The Hokies went 6-6 and lost at Wake Forest 6-3 in two overtimes on Nov. 22.
"
Ultimately, the selection committee went with the "escape" by rewarding Ohio State for its dominating performance against Wisconsin (and gave us a matchup featuring Nick Saban and Urban Meyer in the Sugar Bowl).
For all the debating, no one will care when the games start. All that matters is that there are two competitive semifinal games. Alabama and Ohio State is an incredible matchup on paper, highlighted by the reunion of Meyer and Saban on a field for the first time since the former left Florida.
In the other game, who doesn't want to see the two most high-profile quarterbacks in the country at the Rose Bowl?
The committee didn't have an easy task, but the games will prove to be the right ones when all is said and done.
Alabama and Oregon Is the Championship Game We Deserve
When you get right down to it, even though we all love the idea of a playoff, there will be great disappointment from most of the country if Alabama and Oregon aren't playing for a national championship.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk speculated on Twitter that the spreads for the semifinal games will be decisively in favor of Alabama and Oregon:
Think of the way college football has been played over the last five years. Are there two teams that better encapsulate it—and have redefined it—more than the Crimson Tide and the Ducks?
Alabama plays with an old-school style that emphasizes smash-mouth running in the trenches and a potent passing attack. The Crimson Tide have opened things up more this year, as Amari Cooper has become the nation's best receiver.
Cooper also became the most prolific wide receiver in SEC history against Missouri, per the SEC Network:
Alabama quarterback Blake Sims keeps getting better—proving how silly that quarterback competition in spring camp was—culminating with a performance against Missouri in the SEC Championship Game that left the senior speechless, via Tony Barnhart of SECSports.com:
"It's hard to know what to say," said Sims. "There are so many people to thank, so many people who believed in me. This is an incredible team, and all of these guys had my back all season. This is just a great moment."
That doesn't even touch on an Alabama defense that ranks fourth in points allowed and held six of its 12 opponents to 13 points or fewer.
On the other side, Oregon has been unstoppable since losing to Arizona on October 2. The Ducks avenged that loss in spectacular fashion in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a 51-13 shellacking.
More impressive than the 51 points in that game is the way Mark Helfrich's defense shut down an Arizona offense that averages 34.8 points per game. It's so easy to focus on what the Ducks do with the ball, but the defense has more than held up its end of the bargain.
The star of the show for Oregon is Marcus Mariota, who likely sealed his Heisman win with five total touchdowns against Arizona. Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports put Mariota's season into one pretty bow following the Pac-12 Championship Game:
However, until Oregon plays a team like Alabama, there will always be the lingering question of what this offense can do against an elite defense. With respect to Michigan State, which got waxed by the Ducks earlier this year, Saban's group is in a different category.
Therefore, the best championship game (and the one that will happen) is between the top two teams in the country. Anything else would be a letdown in some respects. Alabama and Oregon run entirely different operations.
Saban has built a program on elite recruits, routinely ranking in the top three on National Signing Day. Helfrich doesn't get that kind of high-profile talent out of high school, but no one maximizes the value of his players and gets them to buy into a system better than Oregon's leader.
It's time to see which group is better on the biggest stage college football has to offer.
Oregon Will Win the National Championship
When Oregon and Alabama meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on January 12, the Ducks will win the first national title in school history.
That goes against the grain, since SEC teams are often given the benefit of the doubt in these games, but there's something about the journey Oregon has been on this season that feels like it's the Ducks' year.
First, Oregon's offense is the kind that is going to give Alabama fits. The Ducks run the same spread-out style that Auburn did, and the Tigers put up 44 points and 630 yards on the Tide.
Even though the SEC Championship Game was a blowout, Missouri found success throwing the ball down the field the same way Auburn did, via SEC Network:
Alabama isn't lacking for speed on defense, but the secondary has been vulnerable against offenses that aren't as good as Oregon. Mariota has been tremendous at making plays with his arm, as well as limiting mistakes. The Heisman favorite has two interceptions in 372 pass attempts this season.
Oregon's defense will have problems matching the power Alabama has on offense, especially with the tandem of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry out of the backfield wearing opponents down.
The best counter to Alabama's power is speed, as has been proven in the last two years. Auburn beat 'Bama with it last year and nearly did it this year. Oregon has the perfect formula to defeat the Crimson Tide and will do so on the biggest stage in college football.
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