Analyzing All the Latest Free-Agent, Trade Buzz Entering Winter Meetings
The annual MLB winter meetings kick off this coming week in San Diego, and after one of the busier Novembers in recent memory, things could move quickly.
The position-player market has already been picked over pretty thoroughly, while the starting-pitching market continues to wait on the first domino (Jon Lester) to fall and get things going.
The rumor mill has been swirling since the regular season ended, but it should really kick into high gear in the days to come, and we'll have a live tracker running all week with the latest updates.
For the time being, though, let's take a quick look around the league at the latest free-agent and trade buzz.
Who Becomes the Houston Astros' Top Target After Missing out on Andrew Miller?
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After taking a big step forward in the rebuilding process this past season, the Houston Astros finally appear to be ready to spend some money in free agency, and shoring up the bullpen looks to be their top priority.
The team went hard after left-hander Andrew Miller and actually made him the highest offer at $40 million over four years, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. He turned that down in favor of a four-year, $36 million deal from the New York Yankees.
So, who becomes the Astros' top target now?
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the team is still in on David Robertson and Sergio Romo, among others.
While Robertson has draft-pick compensation tied to him after receiving a qualifying offer, Romo does not, and he could be the perfect consolation prize after the team lost out on Miller.
The 31-year-old was removed from the closer's job in San Francisco midway through last season, but he rebounded nicely to post a 0.93 ERA over his final 23 appearances of the season as a setup man. That after converting 38 of 43 save chances with a 2.54 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in his first full season as a closer in 2013.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote that the market for a handful of relievers, including Romo, is heating up following the Miller signing, so the Astros would be wise to act quickly.
Chase Headley Has a Four-Year, $65 Million Offer on the Table
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With the top free agent (Pablo Sandoval) and the top trade target (Josh Donaldson) both already finding new homes this offseason, the options are limited for teams still looking to upgrade at third base.
Chase Headley currently represents the best remaining option by a significant margin, and that could mean a big payday, despite his relatively pedestrian offensive numbers.
The 30-year-old hit .243/.328/.372 with 20 doubles and 13 home runs last season, though he was fantastic with the glove—he led all third basemen with a 28.0 UZR/150 and ranked third with 13 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the San Francisco Giants are "turning aggressive" as they pursue Headley in an effort to replace the departed Sandoval.
However, they may not be willing to go as high as $65 million over four years, which, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, is the top offer currently on the table for Headley.
That's serious money for a player who has never been a star outside of a brilliant second half back in 2012.
The Cleveland Indians Are Still Working Toward a Deal for Brandon Moss
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The Cleveland Indians have been working toward acquiring first baseman/outfielder Brandon Moss from the Oakland Athletics for a few days now, and at this point, it looks to be more of a matter of when they'll get a deal done rather than if.
Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer tweeted back on Dec. 4 that the Indians were "guardedly optimistic" about getting a deal done.
"The one and only thing left to do is the trade itself. Everything else has been done except the waiting," wrote Hoynes on Saturday. "If the Indians do acquire [Moss] from the A's, it's going to be a one-for-one trade. The Indians will be parting with a player not on their 40-man roster for Moss."
Second base prospect Joe Wendle has been discussed as one possible option who could be headed to Oakland, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Wendle, 24, hit .265/.326/.425 with 35 extra-base hits in 358 at-bats last season in his first taste of Double-A action.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates Have $15-Plus Million to Spend
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Having already lost one key piece from last season's team in catcher Russell Martin, the Pittsburgh Pirates would like to avoid suffering the same fate with left-hander Francisco Liriano.
The 31-year-old was 23-18 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.262 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 pitching for the Pirates the past two seasons, and the team extended him a qualifying offer to kick off the offseason.
Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reported at the beginning of the month that the team has made re-signing the 31-year-old its top priority.
As it currently stands, Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke and Vance Worley would fill three rotation spots alongside veteran A.J. Burnett, who was re-signed after a year in Philadelphia.
With both Liriano and Edinson Volquez hitting free agency this offseason, the Pirates will need to add an arm one way or another.
They have some money to work with, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
"The Pirates will have at least $15 million in their pocket when they arrive at baseball's annual Winter Meetings, which begin Monday in San Diego.
Most, if not all, of those dollars could go toward acquiring pitching help. Free agent left-hander Francisco Liriano is one of the Pirates' top targets, sources told the Tribune-Review.
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Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a three-year, $40 million deal for Liriano, so that would fall right in line with the money the team has to spend.
Is Melky Cabrera Now the Seattle Mariners' Top Outfield Target?
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The Seattle Mariners have already made one huge addition this offseason, signing slugger Nelson Cruz to finally give them the right-handed power bat they have searched for the past few years.
However, there is still a corner outfield spot to be filled following the trade of Michael Saunders to the Toronto Blue Jays.
The team has been linked to a number of different guys, including both Justin Upton and Matt Kemp on the trade market, but it appears that free agent Melky Cabrera has emerged as the Mariners' top target.
Bob Dutton of The News Tribune first reported the Mariners' interest in the 30-year-old Friday, and while another right-handed bat would be ideal, the switch-hitting Cabrera is still an attractive option.
Cabrera is looking for a five-year deal, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, who points out that older guys like Cruz and Nick Markakis both received four-year deals this offseason.
With a solid rotation and a dominant bullpen, it's the offensive attack that has been holding the Mariners back. Adding Cabrera on top of the Cruz signing could be enough to get them over the hump after they missed the postseason by one game in 2014.
How Much Is One Year of Justin Upton Actually Worth?
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The Atlanta Braves have already pulled off one big trade this offseason, shipping Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Next up on the trade block appears to be fellow outfielder Justin Upton.
Upton, like Heyward, is entering the final year of his deal, so that limits his value to a point. However, the Braves are still looking for a bigger return than what Heyward brought them, and they may very well get it.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports took a closer look at Upton as a trade target and made some solid points on why he's so highly sought after:
- His $14.5 million salary for 2015 is a steal.
- He will bring a draft pick next offseason when he inevitably declines a qualifying offer.
- Right-handed power is a commodity in short supply league wide.
- The position-player market has moved quickly, and the market for bats is drying up.
Would that be enough for someone like the Seattle Mariners to consider giving up Taijuan Walker to land him? At this point, it doesn't look like it, but that is the kind of return the Braves are looking for.
Jon Lester Is the Key to Just How Exciting This Year's Winter Meetings Will Be
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One NL executive perfectly summed up the impact Jon Lester has on this year's starting pitching market while talking to Jayson Stark of ESPN:
"Lester affects everything that goes on with all these pitchers. And not just free agents, Lester affects when and where [Jeff] Samardzija goes. Then Samardzija affects what happens with [Cole] Hamels. It all starts with Lester. He sets the free-agent market and kick-starts the trade market. Depending on when he signs, he could create the greatest winter meetings in decades or the most boring. He'll have a direct effect on the number of hotel rooms canceled and the amount of alcohol consumed.
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At this point, it appears to be a four-team race between the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, but the "mystery team" is always lurking in the periphery.
Last offseason saw a similar situation, as a number of teams were sitting on their hands waiting for Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka to pick a team.
This year's pitching market is the best in recent memory, though, with Max Scherzer, James Shields, Francisco Liriano and a handful of solid mid-level arms joining Lester in free agency.
Once the dominoes start to fall, things could move quickly, and if Lester picks a team early on at this year's winter meetings in San Diego, we could be in for an exciting week ahead.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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