NFL Predictions Week 14: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

Bettors who backed the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football got off to a strong start in Week 14. Unfortunately, those who favored the Chicago Bears are in an early hole. What's the best remedy for climbing out of the red? Well, that would be a sure-thing game.

All right, we all know there's no such thing as a "lock" in the NFL. Remember when the Denver Broncos only managed to put up seven points against the St. Louis Rams? Still, each week we can always take our best shot at predicting that sure-thing bet that will lead us to riches—or, at the very least, even things up with Las Vegas.

In an effort to get Sunday's action off to a hot start, let's take a look at one game that should be considered the lock of Week 14. Although, before we delve into that in-depth analysis, here's a glance at the entire slate of games, their corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
St. Louis at Washington	STL -3	Rams	The Rams will control this game with a mix of defense and Tre Mason.
Houston at Jacksonville	HOU -6	Texans	Arian Foster is capable of outscoring Jacksonville's offense.
NY Giants at Tennessee	Even	Giants	The Giants are the better team, they simply must avoid mistakes.
Tampa Bay at Detroit	DET -11.5	Lions	Tampa Bay may not score double-digit points against Detroit.
Carolina at New Orleans	NO -10	Panthers	Carolina's running game will keep things close against a shaky Saints defense.
Indianapolis at Cleveland	IND -3	Colts	See analysis below.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	CIN -3.5	Bengals	Cincinnati's offense is playing poorly, but Pittsburgh's defense is playing worse.
NY Jets at Minnesota	MIN -5	Jets	There isn't enough offense in this game for either team to win big.
Baltimore at Miami	MIA -3	Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill and Co. will take full advantage of Baltimore's porous secondary.
Kansas City at Arizona	AZ -1	Chiefs	It's difficult to trust Arizona on either side of the ball, as injuries continue to mount.
Buffalo at Denver	DEN -10	Bills	Denver's offense will win this game, but Buffalo's defense will keep things close.
San Francisco at Oakland	SF -8	Raiders	Colin Kaepernick hasn't been able to put enough points on the board to warrant a two-score spread.
Seattle at Philadelphia	PHI -1	Seahawks	Seattle's defense has the tools to completely befuddle Mark Sanchez.
New England at San Diego	NE -3.5	Patriots	New England has too many weapons for San Diego to cover.

All odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 6.

Lock of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Cleveland Browns

The Colts have won eight games this season, three of which were on the road, and none of which was by a margin of three points or fewer. While Indianapolis has lost four games in 2014, they have all been against very potent offenses. We should all be able to agree the Browns don't fall into that category.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer has played horribly of late. He's thrown six interceptions over his last three games, and that led to his benching in favor of rookie signal-caller Johnny Manziel in Week 13. Although, according to NFL on ESPN, the team has decided to stick with the veteran going forward:

Holding a 7-5 record yet dealing with a quarterback controversy 14 weeks into the regular season is completely telling of how unsettled the Browns are as a football team. The Colts' biggest weakness is against the pass, ranking 25th in the league in that department, and the uncertainty at quarterback won't allow Cleveland to take advantage.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis has been much better against the run of late, ranking 12th in the league, allowing an average of 107.8 rush yards per game. The Browns have been struggling in that area as well, with primary ball-carrier Isaiah Crowell coming off a 17-carry, 29-yard performance against the Buffalo Bills.

Taking all of this into consideration, it's difficult to imagine how Cleveland will score enough points to keep up with the Colts offense.

Speaking of offense, Indianapolis has absolutely zero concern at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck leads the league's most potent aerial attack, averaging 326.3 passing yards per game. Luck is coming off an impressive 370-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Washington Redskins' 15th-ranked pass defense.

Here's a look at Luck's incredible numbers through three years with the Colts, via NFL on ESPN:

The Browns are ranked eighth in the league in that department; however, the Colts have a plethora of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Donte Moncrief and Hakeem Nicks, along with tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, are far too much to handle for most defenses. This is one big reason why the Colts are scoring a league-high 31.8 points per game.

Indianapolis has even added a new wrinkle to its offense in running back Daniel Herron. In Week 13, the Colts watched Herron go off for 88 yards and a touchdown on eight carries, while Trent Richardson accumulated just 12 yards on the same amount of touches. This tweet from ESPN Stats & Info really sums it up:

Expect Herron to see more action in Week 14 against Cleveland's 29th-ranked run defense that's allowing an average of 132.5 yards per game.

While only one win may separate these teams, they are playing at completely different levels right now. The Colts continue to light up the scoreboard each and every week, while the Browns appear to be searching for answers late in the season. Bet on Indianapolis with confidence.

Prediction: Colts 34, Browns 20