Fiesta Bowl 2014: Preview, Predictions for Arizona vs. Boise State
No. 20 Boise State will be back in familiar territory on New Year's Eve when it heads to the Fiesta Bowl for a matchup against No. 10 Arizona.
The Broncos (11-2) paved their way to Glendale, Arizona by winning the Mountain West championship and earning the guaranteed spot to a non-Power Five team. A surging offense that's fueled by superstar running back Jay Ajayi will be a stiff challenge for Arizona.
The Wildcats (10-3) were one win away from vaulting themselves into the playoff discussion, but those hopes vanished quickly in the Pac-12 title game as No. 2 Oregon pounded its way to a 51-13 victory.
Can Boise State notch its third win in the Fiesta Bowl since 2007, or will Arizona prove to be too strong?
Here's everything you need to know:
Date: Wednesday, December 31
Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Radio: Bronco Radio Network, Arizona IMG Sports Network
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7If this infographic proves anything, it's that there will be a lot of offense when these two teams meet in Glendale.
Boise State will look to take advantage of Arizona's leaky pass defense, which surrenders an average of 279 yards per game. The Wildcats will look to do the same, but they'll have to take care of the ball against an opportunistic Broncos defense.
Boise State Keys to Victory
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Win the Turnover Battle
Turnovers were a huge factor in Boise State's two losses this year.
Against Ole Miss in the season opener, Grant Hedrick threw four costly interceptions in a 35-13 loss. Four weeks later against Air Force, Hedrick and backup Ryan Finley combined for five more interceptions and the Broncos lost two fumbles in a 28-14 defeat.
Arizona is very good at forcing turnovers and taking care of the ball, ranking 24th nationally in turnover margin. If Boise State gets careless with the ball, things could get out of hand quickly against the Wildcats.
Channel the Glory Days of Chris Petersen
Early in the season, the Broncos didn't look like the same team that Chris Petersen guided to an unprecedented run of success during his tenure in Boise. But that changed as the year wore on, though. Bryan Harsin has Boise State playing at a high level—the Broncos are riding an eight-game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 19.25.
But can maintain that against the big boys on the biggest stage?
Petersen turned Boise State into a team that few teams wanted to see in the postseason. The Broncos were disciplined and fearless, and Petersen wasn't afraid to get creative with an array of trick plays.
Going up against a strong Wildcats team, Boise State may have to get innovative.
Arizona Keys to Victory
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Get Anu Solomon Settled in
Any team starting a freshman quarterback in a bowl game has to guard against the inherent and inevitable jitters from a young signal-caller. Arizona will not be an exception to that rule.
Anu Solomon has been absolutely fantastic for the Wildcats this season, leading all freshman with 3,458 passing yards. He's a threat on the ground as well—Solomon has run for 259 yards and a touchdown as the triggerman for Rich Rodriguez's spread offense.
Can he bounce back from the injury he suffered against Oregon and challenge a decent Broncos defense that ranks 39th nationally in yards allowed?
The Wildcats failed to get Solomon settled in during the Pac-12 title game as he threw for just 34 yards and lost 23 rushing before he was knocked out of the game early in the third quarter.
Arizona should do all it can to get Solomon in a groove. Whether that's with quick screen passes or quarterback draws —the Wildcats can't afford their signal-caller to falter early.
Avoid a Slow Start
By extension, the Wildcats as a whole need to get things going early, especially offensively.
In its three losses this season, Arizona's offense came out of the gates slowly. The Wildcats trailed USC 21-6 before their rally fell short in a 28-26 defeat. They got on the board with a touchdown early against UCLA, but faltered afterwards in a 17-7 loss. And against the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game, Arizona didn't score until midway through the third quarter, when Oregon had already secured an insurmountable 30-0 lead.
Sure, the Wildcats registered one of the more improbable comebacks of the year when they overcame a 15-point deficit in the final five minutes of their game against Cal. But Rodriguez will want to avoid that kind of situation against the Broncos.
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Boise State Players to Watch
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Grant Hedrick
Boise State has one of the country's most complete running backs in Jay Ajayi, who ranks fourth nationally with 1,699 rushing yards and second with 25 rushing touchdowns.
But the Broncos play at a higher level when Grant Hedrick is at the top of his game.
The senior quarterback got off to a rough start to the year, throwing just one touchdown to eight interceptions in early-season losses to Ole Miss and Air Force. Since that loss to the Falcons, though, he's been solid. The Broncos closed out the regular season on a seven-game win streak, and Hedrick was a big part of that, completing 72.8 percent of his passes for 1,937 yards with 17 touchdowns (against just four interceptions).
His running ability will keep Arizona's defense on its heels as well. Hedrick has piled up 563 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, so the Wildcats will have to be prepared for that added playmaking element.
Kamalei Correa
Boise State's defense has a number of playmakers, such as safety Darian Thompson, who is tied for third in the country with seven interceptions, and linebacker Tanner Vallejo, who leads the team with 86 tackles.
The Broncos are going to need a strong presence up front against the Wildcats, which is why Kamalei Correa will be key.
Correa has had a breakout sophomore campaign after playing sparingly as a first-year player last season. The 6'3", 247-pound defensive end leads the team in sacks (10) and tackles for loss (17), and his improved play came when the Broncos needed it the most. According to Jay Tust of KTVB.com, Correa averaged 1.07 sacks per game during Boise State's seven-game winning streak to close out the regular season.
Against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, Arizona surrendered four sacks and was pressured relentlessly by the Ducks defense. The Broncos will want to unleash Correa to do the same in Glendale.
Arizona Players to Watch
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Nick Wilson
While Anu Solomon will be key to Arizona's offense, the Wildcats could get a boost from another freshman if running back Nick Wilson comes out hot.
Wilson has stepped into the huge void left by Ka'Deem Carey and thrived, running for 1,289 yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 games this season (he missed the USC game). His best outing of the year came against Utah in Week 13, when he ran for a career-high 218 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries. A week later against rival Arizona State, Wilson piled up 178 rushing yards and three more touchdowns.
When Wilson isn't playing well, Arizona struggles. They lost their only game without him when they fell 28-26 to USC. But against UCLA and Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, Wilson averaged just 22 yards per game and two yards per carry, and he was held out of the end zone.
Scooby Wright
A finalist for the Bednarik, Nagurski and Lombardi awards, Scooby Wright is one of the most dominant defenders in all of college football. The sophomore linebacker, a former 2-star recruit who's determined to prove his doubters wrong, was named the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year after an incredible 2014 campaign.
The 6'1", 246-pound linebacker ranks second in the country with 153 total tackles, first with 27 tackles for loss and third with 14 sacks. He can single-handedly ruin an opposing offense's game plan with his incredible sideline-to-sideline speed and ability to wreak havoc in the backfield.
What They're Saying
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Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick talked about a team that has come together over the course of the year, via Jason Chatraw of The Associated Press.
"The last year has been crazy, but it just goes to show you the type of chemistry we have and the kind of team we have and what a brotherhood we are. It's been a crazy experience going through spring ball and then to be here and bringing home the first outright MWC trophy — it's huge and goes to show you what a great program we have.
"
Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez talked about the disappointment of the Pac-12 Championship Game with a bowl game on the horizon.
"It's not the end," Rodriguez said, according to Alex Espinoza of Pac-12.com. "We've got a bowl game. Tonight was disappointing, the way we played, and you've got to give [the Ducks] a lot of credit. They're a very good football team and we didn't play well tonight."
Prediction
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Arizona will have too much offense for Boise State to handle.
The Broncos will struggle to keep pace with a balanced Wildcats team as Anu Solomon has a solid outing, throwing for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Nick Wilson will be the star of the day, though, running for 175 yards and three touchdowns to earn offensive MVP honors.
Boise State will put up points as Grant Hedrick throws for 300 yards and Jay Ajayi rushes for 150 and two scores. But a late interception from Hedrick on the game's final drive will seal the eight-point Arizona victory.
Prediction: Arizona 45, Boise State 37
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