Bleacher Report's Complete 2014 MLB Winter Meetings Preview, Predictions

If you're a baseball fan, the next week is going to be fun and filled with all kinds of action, including rumors and speculation, as well as, yes, at least a few actual trades and signings.

That's because the annual winter meetings start up Sunday, Dec. 7 and carry on through Thursday, Dec. 11. This year, they're being held in San Diego, which is a pretty perfect getaway in the middle of winter (or, you know, any time of year).

While the meetings themselves have a number of business- and administrative-related events on the agenda, it's also an excuse to get general managers, front-office execs and representatives from all 30 clubs in the same spot for a handful of days.

That tends to bring about activity—or, at least, the potential for it.

"The ratio of talk to action will be about 50 to one," Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein said, via Phil Rogers of MLB.com.

Still, something is bound to happen.

In advance of the meetings last year, the biggest news was the Seattle Mariners' surprise signing of Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract. The fallout and impact of that spilled over into the actual meetings.

This year, the New York Yankees are in that position, having just traded for shortstop Didi Gregorius and signed lefty reliever Andrew Miller for $36 million over four years—doubling the largest amount ever awarded to a pitcher with no closing experience.

There's plenty more still to come, so here's a look at what might happen at the meetings based on the remaining free agents, trade candidates, team needs and the latest chatter.

The Free-Agent Pitching Market Will Start Falling into Place—Finally

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The pitching market seems to be waiting for Jon Lester to pick his new team.

Whether via free agency or trade, the market for mound men simply has to pick up.

More than a month into the offseason, the top free-agent starting pitcher to sign is—drum roll, please—A.J. Burnett, who is almost 38, posted an ERA of 4.59 last year and took a pay cut to $8.5 million to return to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

While there has been a ton of action on the position-player front, something has to give—and soon—in the pitching market, which is overflowing with options.

As Greg Johns of MLB.com writes:

"

Across the MLB landscape, big free-agent bats have been the hot commodity so far this winter, with [Nelson] Cruz joining Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Yasmany Tomas, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Markakis and Billy Butler in the early run of free agency. Thus the Winter Meetings likely will focus more on the surplus of free-agent pitching that has yet to be tapped.

"

To that end, it's pretty obvious that every free-agent starting pitcher is more or less waiting for Jon Lester to make up his darn mind already.

A number of teams are interested and already have met with and floated offers to the left-hander. Among them? The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and his former club, the Boston Red Sox.

The last two in that batch reportedly have put years and money on the table, per Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, somewhere in the range of $130-140 million over six seasons. It appears it's now up to Lester to make his choice—and it could very well happen during the meetings.

Once that actually occurs, attention will turn toward Max Scherzer and James Shields, who would be the top two arms in free agency. But there's likely to be more movement first with second-tier options, like Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano and Brandon McCarthy.

If Lester puts pen to paper this week, there's a good chance another starter could do the same before the meetings are over—and that a flurry of pitcher signings could follow.

There Will Be More Activity on the Trade Front Than in Free Agency

David Goldman/Associated Press

Justin Upton's name has come up more than a few times in trade speculation.

Because Jon Lester is on the verge of deciding on his new home and most of the premium position players already have been plucked, there's a lot more speculation—and maybe even movement coming—in the trade market.

Last year, the biggest move during the winter meetings arguably was the three-team trade between the Los Angeles Angels, who got lefties Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago; the Arizona Diamondbacks, who landed slugger Mark Trumbo; and the Chicago White Sox, who picked up center fielder and leadoff man Adam Eaton.

While Lester remains the biggest domino expected to fall in the coming days, it's likely that a trade (or two) involving a big name (or two) could come together.

As challenging as signings are to predict, trades are even tougher because it's about multiple teams and players.

Still, it seems there might be something to the recent rumors surrounding a Red Sox-Tigers swap built on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for right-hander Rick Porcello, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. Both players are free agents after 2015, and each side would fill an area of need. Plus, Detroit did just address its rotation by obtaining righty Shane Greene.

Otherwise, there are a number of big bats being floated as trade chips, including the Dodgers' Matt Kemp and Braves' Justin Upton. There has been an increasing amount of heat surrounding the former, who has piqued the interest of the Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, among others, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.

As for pitchers, there's the seemingly inevitable Jeff Samardzija trade, and on the other hand, the never-ending speculation over whether the Philadelphia Phillies actually might move lefty Cole Hamels, according to Justin Klugh of Philly.com. The Washington Nationals also are still listening on righties Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, as Jayson Stark of ESPN reports.

"I could see [GM Mike Rizzo] making a few blockbusters," an NL exec told Stark, "with the pitching staff in particular."

These highly regarded arms are less likely to be traded during the meetings, mainly because some of the free-agent pitchers need to come off the board first. That doesn't mean something surprising can't transpire.

Either Melky Cabrera or Chase Headley Will Snag a Contract

Associated Press

As one of the top two remaining free-agent position players, Melky Cabrera could sign very soon.

Going back to free agents for a moment, it seems pretty obvious that either, if not both, Melky Cabrera or Chase Headley will be penning his John Hancock very soon, perhaps even during the winter meetings.

The rush to buy bats amid this depressed offensive environment has left Cabrera, an outfielder who hit .301 with an .808 OPS in 2014, and Headley, a third baseman who rebuilt a lot of his value with a strong performance after being traded to the Yankees (.371 OBP), as the top two position players left. It would be surprising if at least one of them isn't signed by week's end.

In the hours before the 2013 meetings, outfielder Curtis Granderson scored a four-year, $60 million deal from the New York Mets, and that's right in the range that's expected for Cabrera and Headley. In fact, Headley apparently already has an offer of $65 million over four years from some mystery team, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

Headley seems to be the hotter commodity at the moment, what with the San Francisco Giants reportedly getting "aggressive" in their pursuit of the cornerman, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, after they watched Pablo Sandoval head to the Red Sox.

As for Cabrera, the Seattle Mariners have a need for both an outfielder and more offense, even after inking Nelson Cruz last week, so their interest in Cabrera makes sense, according to Bob Dutton of Seattle's The News Tribune.

"With free-agent bats all but gone," writes Stark, "[Cabrera] seems like he's next up."

Maybe so, but it could just as easily be Headley.

If David Robertson Is Going to Get a Big Payday, It'll Happen Sooner Than Later

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Interest in David Robertson should pick up now that Andrew Miller is out of the picture.

If David Robertson wasn't the top reliever in free agency before Andrew Miller landed on Friday with the Yankees—Robertson's perhaps-former club—he now is unquestionably the top late-inning arm on the market.

That's something of which he needs to take advantage, and the sooner, the better.

Why? Because as Buster Olney of ESPN notes, "More and more agents saying privately that they would've advised David Robertson to take the Yankees' qualifying offer of $15.3 million."

Unlike every other reliever out there, Robertson is anchored to draft-pick compensation, meaning any club that brings him aboard is doing so at the expense of a high choice next June.

It's possible that a team that fancies itself a contender and already has burned its first-round selection—perhaps the Blue Jays, who spent big on Russell Martin?—could meet Robertson's target, which is something like $40-50 million over four years, per Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York.

Otherwise, it's tough to see any team willing to give up that much money and a draft pick in order to lock up a pitcher who will throw 60 or 70 innings a year.

A few teams have been after Robertson, including the Houston Astros, to the point where he reportedly has an offer of $39 million over three years, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports:

"

Some around the game questioned whether Robertson was taking an unnecessary risk when he turned down the Yankees' $15.3 million offer, which would have given the highest salary ever for a relief pitcher without ever even testing the market. But one rival executive said he's heard Robertson already has an offer of about $39 million for three years in hand, and that it seems likely with all the outside interest that Robertson will get a four-year offer.

"

The thing is, the longer Robertson waits now that Miller is out of the picture, the less likely he is to come close to that—and the greater risk he'll face of his market drying up around him.

After all, it's not like there aren't other relievers—even some other proven closers, like Rafael Soriano, Sergio Romo and Francisco Rodriguez—readily available. And they don't have any draft-pick penalty tied to them.

Yet Again, the Rule 5 Draft Won't Be Worth All the Attention It Gets

Darryl Webb/Associated Press

Among players picked in the 2013 Rule 5 Draft, Rockies reliever Tommy Kahnle had the most success.

MLB's Rule 5 draft tends to get hyped up because it's a chance for clubs to unearth, at almost no cost, a hidden gem of a minor-league player who wasn't protected by being placed on the 40-man roster at the end of November.

For those who care about this sort of thing and want to get up early, the Rule 5 draft starts at 9 a.m. on Thursday, Dec. 11, the getaway day of the winter meetings.

While there have been a handful of big-time names taken in the past—including Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton and Joakim Soria—the results have been underwhelming in recent years.

For instance, the most productive Rule 5er from 2013 was reliever Tommy Kahnle, who you probably didn't even realize threw nearly 70 innings in relief with the Colorado Rockies last year.

The most well-known name to go last year, however, wasn't even a baseball player, as Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com writes:

"

The biggest buzz occurred in the Triple-A phase when the Rangers took Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson had been drafted by the Rockies in the fourth round of the 2010 June Draft and spent two summers playing Minor League ball before turning his full attention to his NFL career. It may sound a bit like a gimmick -- Wilson won't suddenly change his career path now that Texas has spent $12,000 to take him -- but the Rangers hope that perhaps they can build a relationship with someone they respect and admire.

"

That said, the Cubs selected Hector Rondon second overall in the 2012 version, and he since has gone on to become their closer. So it's not an entirely useless exercise.

Looking for some of the top candidates to get plucked this time around? Rule 5 connoisseur J.J. Cooper of Baseball America has an in-depth rundown. The guess here is former first-rounder Delino DeShields Jr. gets scooped up early and has a chance to stick with a team as a backup outfielder/pinch runner.

Others to be on the lookout for include Braves righty Cody Martin, Chicago White Sox outfielder Jared Mitchell and righty Jason Adam and southpaw Sean Gilmartin, both of the Minnesota Twins.

Ultimately, there's a chance that one or maybe two of the players taken in the Rule 5 draft will have an impact in 2015, but it's a small chance—and it will be a small impact.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.