Bold Predictions for Conference Championship Weekend
Conference championship weekend is finally here. For an entire season, we've watched, waited, debated and talked about the happenings of the 2014 college football season, and now that we're coming to its denouement, it is as intriguing as ever.
With the College Football Playoff selection committee watching, who’ll step forward in the chase for the final four spots? Will it be a "favorites" kind of weekend, or will it get wild like the 2007 season, one of the craziest in modern history? Who will emerge in the four-team bracket when the inaugural College Football Playoff is revealed Sunday afternoon?
You have questions. We might have answers, and we definitely have predictions. Take a look at our bold predictions for conference championship weekend.
Marcus Mariota Will Have a Heisman Trophy Moment
1 of 7
Marcus Mariota has had an incredible junior season. Oregon's quarterback has been nearly perfect. He's thrown for 3,470 yards with 36 touchdowns against two interceptions and added 636 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns on the ground.
The Ducks' only blemish this season came in a 31-24 home loss to Arizona, which happens to be their opponent in the Pac-12 Championship. It's a perfect chance for Oregon to get revenge and cement its College Football Playoff bid, and for Mariota to stake his claim for the Heisman Trophy once and for all.
It's important to remember that Oregon lost to the Wildcats without the services of left tackle Jake Fisher, one of the Pac-12's top offensive linemen. Fisher is healthy and protecting Mariota's blind side, which will make a huge difference.
With plenty of time to throw against Arizona's defense, Mariota goes wild. He throws for 400 yards and three touchdowns as the Ducks rout Rich Rodriguez and the Wildcats and get revenge. In the process, Mariota cements his position as the Heisman favorite.
Boise State Will Grab the Group of Five Bowl Spot
2 of 7
It's been a pretty good homecoming season for Bryan Harsin at Boise State. The former Broncos assistant has been a perfect fit in replacing Chris Petersen. The Broncos enter Saturday's Mountain West Championship at 10-2, with their only losses coming to Ole Miss and Air Force. No shame there.
Boise has won seven consecutive games, scoring at least 37 points in each one. The Broncos average 40.8 points per game, which ranks ninth nationally. Senior quarterback Grant Hedrick has thrown for 3,232 yards with 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, and junior tailback Jay Ajayi has been impressive, rushing for 1,619 yards with 24 touchdowns.
With 6-6 Fresno State their only remaining obstacle, they'll roll the Bulldogs, claim the Mountain West and grab the "Group of Five" spot in the College Football Playoff-affiliated bowls.
Florida State Will Struggle Mightily with Georgia Tech
3 of 7
A year ago, Florida State was clearly the best team in college football. The Seminoles were dominant from start to finish in winning the final BCS National Championship, and when they needed a rally against Auburn in the national title game, they got it in the most clutch drive of Jameis Winston's young career.
It was a harbinger of things to come. This season, the Seminoles are the only remaining undefeated team in the FBS, but they've had to work extremely hard to maintain perfection. Six of FSU's wins have come by six points or fewer, and the Seminoles have erased a trio of double-digit road deficits at N.C. State, Louisville and Miami.
So it's natural they draw Georgia Tech, one of the nation's toughest teams to prepare for on a short turnaround, for the ACC title game.
Paul Johnson's flexbone offense has hummed perfectly this season for Georgia Tech (10-2) behind the leadership of sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas, a first-year starter. They average 333.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth nationally.
The option offense is a major concern for Florida State's defense, which has struggled to get consistent linebacker play this season after returning only starter Terrance Smith from last season's title team. The Seminoles allow 145.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 42 nationally.
They've also had a lot of trouble getting off the field. Opponents are converting 42.6 percent of their third downs against FSU, which ranks No. 89 nationally.
That's a perfect fit for Georgia Tech, which loves to chew clock with slow, methodical drives. Tech holds the ball for an average of 34 minutes, two seconds per game, which ranks third nationally, and converts 57.4 percent of its third downs, which is tops nationally.
This won't be a blowout. Expect something similar to the teams' last meeting, in the 2012 ACC Championship, a 21-15 Florida State win. It's incredibly difficult to pick against the Seminoles at this point, so we won't. But it won't be easy. Will it be enough for the selection committee? We'll see.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Baylor Will Rout Kansas State
4 of 7
Entering this weekend, Baylor knows exactly what it needs: style points. The Bears are 10-1, but they've slipped to No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings behind No. 3 TCU (a team they defeated 61-58 earlier this season), No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Ohio State. Since the Big 12's round-robin format does not allow for designation of a champion if Baylor and TCU both win this week, the Bears have to win big against Kansas State.
This is their final opportunity to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee, and Art Briles' team knows it. Both Baylor and TCU are 10-1, but Baylor's weak nonconference slate (SMU, Buffalo, FCS foe Northwestern State) doesn't match up to TCU's, which is highlighted by a win over a good Minnesota team. At 9-2, Kansas State is good but not great, with its losses coming at home to Auburn and at TCU by a 41-20 score.
Bryce Petty and Co. know they have to go, go, go, and Baylor does. The Bears put up 50 on Kansas State, and Petty throws for 500 yards, making a statement to committee members.
Wisconsin Will Run Past Ohio State for the Big Ten Title
5 of 7
There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Big Ten title game. What does No. 5 Ohio State have to do to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee and snag one of the four coveted bids? And how will the offense function with third-string quarterback Cardale Jones at the helm?
Jones will make his first career start against the Badgers after freshman star J.T. Barrett suffered a season-ending broken ankle against Michigan. He was passed by Barrett for the Buckeyes' starting role in August following Braxton Miller's season-ending shoulder surgery.
Barrett and others have full confidence in Jones, per Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch. "Cardale is a great player," Barrett said. "I honestly feel like if I wasn't starting this year, Cardale would have done the same things I did this year. Cardale is that talented."
However, it remains to be seen how he'll deal with a nasty Wisconsin defense that allows an average of 16.8 points per game (No. 4 nationally).
And how will the Buckeyes run defense deal with Wisconsin junior tailback Melvin Gordon, a prime Heisman Trophy candidate? Gordon has rushed for a nation's-best 2,260 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has rushed for at least 122 yards in all but one game this season and has surpassed the 200-yard mark four times, including a 408-yard effort against Nebraska that stood as the FBS single-game rushing record for exactly one week.
Last year, he carried 15 times for 74 yards against Ohio State's defense. This year, the Buckeyes are No. 40 nationally in rush defense, yielding 145.4 yards per game. Expect Gordon to get his yards while the Badgers hold Jones and Ohio State's offense in check for the Big Ten title.
Alabama Will Rip Missouri
6 of 7
We've heard all season how superior the SEC West is to the SEC East. Alabama is the nation's No. 1 team. SEC East champion Missouri lost to Indiana. At home.
Still, the Tigers are 10-2 and cannot be discounted entering the Georgia Dome. After all, the core of this team pushed Auburn to the limit last December in an SEC title game shootout. Missouri has found ways to win. Following an ugly 34-0 home loss to Georgia, the Tigers have won six consecutive games, and they've won each of their last three games by eight points or fewer, showing mental toughness.
However, they haven't seen a team like Alabama yet. Nick Saban's group has a typically salty defense (allowing 16.9 points per game, sixth nationally), and the Crimson Tide can score when necessary, as last week's 55-44 Iron Bowl comeback win over Auburn showed.
Saban has an exceptional ability to focus his team when it's needed most, and this week fits perfectly. Alabama needs to win the SEC title to make the College Football Playoff. Look for junior receiver Amari Cooper (103 catches, 1,573 yards, 14 touchdowns) to continue his amazing run following last week's 224-yard, three-touchdown effort against Auburn.
The Crimson Tide will rip Missouri and easily lock down the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
Baylor Will Jump TCU for the Final Playoff Spot
7 of 7
OK, so if this weekend's results hold as predicted, we'll have Alabama, Oregon and Florida State locked into the College Football Playoff. However, the committee has stated that it takes each week as a blank slate going forward, allowing it to take all results into consideration.
So what does that mean for Baylor and TCU? Fox Sports Southwest's David Ubben makes the case for both sides.
The committee has also stated that head-to-head results will be used as a tiebreaker, which is bad news for the Horned Frogs, who blew a 58-37 fourth-quarter lead in a 61-58 loss at Baylor earlier this season. If the committee is serious about using a blank slate, Baylor will jump into the No. 4 slot and face off with Alabama, while Oregon and Florida State will face off in the other semifinal.
Will it happen this way? Who knows? That's why we'll all intently watch it unfold on the field this weekend and behind closed doors Sunday afternoon.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
