St. Petersburg Bowl 2014: Preview, Predictions for North Carolina State vs. UCF
The North Carolina State Wolfpack and Central Florida Knights will meet at the 2014 Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl on Friday, Dec. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field and will be televised on ESPN.
Jacoby Brissett and Shadrach Thornton highlight an NC State squad that finished 7-5 overall and 3-5 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Wolfpack are seeking their first bowl win since 2011.
Central Florida (9-3, 7-1 American Athletic Conference) is playing for its fourth consecutive postseason victory. The Knights' last bowl loss was against Rutgers in the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl.
North Carolina State and UCF have met twice before, with Knights winning the 2007 meeting 25-23 and the Wolfpack taking the 2010 clash 28-21.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Check out this graphic to see how the Bitcoin Bowl opponents compare to one another.
The North Carolina State offense faces a major task against the superb Central Florida defense, which ranks in the top 11 in all major categories.
Be sure to click "SWAP" to measure the NC State defense vs. the UCF offense.
NC State Keys to Victory
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Start Fast on Both Sides
The Wolfpack owns a slim 188-180 scoring edge during the opening half, but UCF has destroyed its opponents 195-97 through the opening 30 minutes.
NC State cannot afford to fall behind early, because they need to maintain a balanced offensive attack. The Knights would then be able to focus solely in disrupting Brissett in the pocket and improve their already impressive 33-sack total.
Grabbing a quick lead—or at least limiting Central Florida's hot start—is imperative for Dave Doeren's crew to earn a victory.
Force Field Goals
Although the Knights are excellent in the early going, they're relatively terrible in the red zone. UCF's offense has posted a 50 percent touchdown percentage (109th in the FBS), crossing the plane on just 26 of 52 drives that reached the 20-yard line.
What's more, the Wolfpack defense has surrendered 24 touchdowns on 41 red-zone possessions, which is a solid 58.4 percent mark.
North Carolina State must capitalize on its obvious strength and limit the scoring damage, lest the Knights unexpectedly run away with the Bitcoin Bowl.
Central Florida Keys to Victory
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Shut Down Shadrach Thornton
Running on the Knights has been extremely difficult all season, and they cannot afford to have a letdown against NC State. Central Florida boasts the No. 5 rushing defense in the nation, surrendering just 95.9 yards per outing.
Thornton racked up 281 yards and a pair scores over his two most recent outings but had only managed 311 yards and three touchdowns throughout the seven before.
If George O'Leary's team can end Thornton's mini hot streak, UCF will force the North Carolina State receivers to enter an unfamiliar place—the spotlight.
Score 27 Points
That may seem like an oddly specific number, but there's good reason for 27 points.
The Wolfpack have lived and died by the success of their defense, considering it allowed 42.6 points per game in five losses and just 15.9 points during seven victories. Additionally, just once has NC State allowed more than 23 points yet finished on the winning end.
Central Florida eclipsed that mark in eight of 12 season matchups, and its superb defense should keep Brissett and Co.'s scoring output below three touchdowns and two field goals.
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NC State Players to Watch
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Shadrach Thornton, Running Back
Brissett is capable of carrying the Wolfpack if he receives defensive support, but Thornton adds a valuable piece when producing. The running back registered 811 yards and nine touchdowns as a junior, flying past his 2013 yardage clip in 25 fewer carries.
However, just like NC State's defense, his contributions are noticeably cut from 6.0 yards per attempt in wins to 4.5 in losses.
The Wolfpack offensive line absolutely must provide its best performance of the season and help Thornton continue his solid finish to the year.
Mike Rose, Defensive End
UCF quarterback Justin Holman has settled down under center recently, tucking and running fewer times compared to the opening games of the 2014 campaign. Nevertheless, the Wolfpack need Mike Rose to make sure Holman doesn't get tricky.
In 2014, Rose amassed a modest 46 tackles, but 14.0 were for loss and 4.0 of those resulted in sacks. The junior also forced three fumbles and recovered two, adding two quarterback hits and one pass breakup.
Though he isn't a dominant force on the line, Rose is the best North Carolina State has available.
Central Florida Players to Watch
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Terrance Plummer, Linebacker
Central Florida need not look further than Terrance Plummer to lead the charge against Thornton. The senior linebacker will be a key component in not allowing the NC State back to reach the second level.
Plummer tallied a team-high 92 tackles—including 12.5 for loss—and added two quarterback hits, forced fumbles and recoveries. Additionally, he was active in coverage, tallying six breakups, seven defended passes and one interception.
Keeping Thornton under control will force the Wolfpack to become more one-dimensional, which is a perfect opportunity for Plummer to disrupt the backfield on A-gap blitzes.
Jacoby Glenn, Cornerback
Though the Wolfpack receiving corps hasn't collectively performed well, UCF must be able to handle anything NCSU throws at them. The Knights do, of course, have a terrific cornerback in Jacoby Glenn.
During the regular season, he snared seven interceptions, broke up 11 passes and defended 18 more—all of which led the UCF defense. Glenn certainly took some chances, so the sophomore must be careful taking risks when guarding Wolfpack wideouts.
Nevertheless, the battle between the Knights' top corner and North Carolina's handful of receivers is one to watch closely.
What They're Saying
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North Carolina State
According to WNCN, Dave Doeren appreciates the opportunity for a handful of players to return home for the Christmas season.
"We know that the N.C. State fan base will enjoy the opportunity to support their Wolfpack in a great city, and I look forward to seeing a sea of red on game day. This is a great reward for our young team that has continued to improve over the course of the season, especially for the 12 current players from Florida who will be able to be home for the holidays.
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Central Florida
According to Shannon Owens-Green of the Orlando Sentinel, O'Leary almost received his preferred bowl spot.
"Last month, O'Leary said he wanted his team to stay in the state of Florida if they weren't selected to a New Year's Day bowl game. He also said he preferred to play before Christmas because he didn't have good experiences with student-athletes practicing during the holidays.
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Prediction
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Central Florida gets on the board first, but North Carolina State tightens up defensively and keeps the score close into the locker room.
The Knights open a 10-point advantage during the third quarter on a Stanback touchdown. However, the Wolfpack quickly answer and tally a field goal to cut UCF's lead to seven entering the fourth quarter.
Ultimately, O'Leary's squad holds off a valiant last-minute effort from Brissett to earn a hard-fought victory, knocking down a pass in the end zone as time expires.
Prediction: UCF 27, NC State 20
Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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