Boca Raton Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Northern Illinois vs. Marshall
The Northern Illinois Huskies and Marshall Thundering Herd will square off in the 2014 Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Quarterback Drew Hare leads a potent Northern Illinois attack that tallied 442.5 yards and 32.2 points per game en route to a Mid-American Conference title and 11-2 record.
Marshall managed a 12-1 finish, toppling Louisiana Tech to earn the Conference USA championship. Rakeem Cato and Devon Johnson carry the explosive Thundering Herd offense.
The programs have met seven times, most recently a 37-15 Marshall victory in 2001. Northern Illinois holds a 4-3 all-time series advantage.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7In which areas do the respective teams hold a statistical advantage? Check out this graphic to find a few answers.
Marshall's offense overpowers what Northern Illinois' defense has surrendered, so something has to give in the respective categories.
Be sure to click "SWAP" to compare the Marshall D to the NIU offense.
Northern Illinois Keys to Victory
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Rely on the Ground Game
This season, Rod Carey's squad was most successful when its running game was the primary focus. The Huskies' two lowest rushing outputs occurred during losses to Arkansas and Central Michigan.
Northern Illinois has a superb back in Cameron Stingily, who combined with Hare to record 1,745 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground. Highlighted by the duo, the Huskies boast the nation's No. 14 rushing attack.
Marshall has a stingy run defense, though Western Kentucky shredded it for a season-high 222 yards on 6.3 per carry. If NIU can match that, Hare and Co. will have an excellent chance to win.
Finish Drives, Stall the Herd
However, ball control isn't enough.
Marshall is primed to hang a seriously crooked number every outing, so the Huskies cannot settle for field goals. Though Northern Illinois tallied 41 scores in 63 red-zone opportunities, it needs to finish potential scoring drives with touchdowns.
Conversely—yet similarly—the Herd scored 41 touchdowns in 64 red-zone chances, so they're not a lock to put seven on the board when in the red zone. NIU must force a few stops of its own, limiting Marshall to three points on multiple occasions.
Marshall Keys to Victory
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Protect Cato
NIU doesn't have a dominant pass-rusher, but Jason Meehan and Perez Ford will be called upon to pressure Cato. Overall, the Huskies defense has managed 30 sacks, a trend that the Herd's offensive line must halt.
Marshall allowed 19 sacks this season, though Cato has largely avoided costly errors. The senior has completed 58.5 percent of his attempts and been picked off 13 times.
Providing Cato with a clean pocket and time to throw will obviously play to the Thundering Herd's advantage, because the Northern Illinois defense is no pushover.
Make Hare Throw
Hare has tossed two interceptions compared to 17 touchdowns, only dropping back when absolutely necessary. The sophomore recorded the 92nd-most passes per game in the FBS—or in other words, not many. Efficiency is his strength, volume is not.
Excluding the Air Raid-like 49-attempt day during the MAC championship, the Huskies fell in a pair of games when Hare registered his most attempts of the season.
He and Stingily have proved they can destroy a team on the ground, so NIU hasn't been forced to win through the air. Marshall's defense must change that, however, and in a big way.
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Northern Illinois Players to Watch
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Da'Ron Brown, Wide Receiver
Although he isn't necessarily an elite, big-play threat, Da'Ron Brown has been the Huskies' most consistent receiver with an ability to break a long-gainer.
The senior recorded at least four receptions and 50 yards in 10 of 13 games, eclipsing the 100-yard barrier three times.
Brown amassed 64 receptions for 1,002 yards and six touchdowns, each of which led all Northern Illinois receivers. He was recently named All-MAC second team.
Paris Logan, Cornerback
Cato tends to look for Tommy Shuler, but the Huskies need the Marshall quarterback to see Paris Logan.
If Logan can reduce Shuler's impact, Cato and the Herd must find another option in the passing game—something they haven't had consistently this year.
The All-MAC first-team member logged 18 pass defenses, 15 breakups and three interceptions, adding 69 tackles as NIU's top cornerback. Additionally, Logan has notched a pass breakup in 12 consecutive outings.
Marshall Players to Watch
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Devon Johnson and Steward Butler, Running Backs
Marshall is best known for the passing exploits of Cato, but the Herd actually showcase a wonderfully balanced offense.
Beyond Cato's ability to run, Devon Johnson and Steward Butler compiled 2,417 yards and 23 touchdowns throughout an impressive campaign. The trio, along with Remi Watson, has led Marshall to the country's No. 7 rush offense.
Northern Illinois has surrendered the 76th-most scores in the nation, so the Thundering Herd must exploit the Huskies' mediocre rush defense near the goal line.
Neville Hewitt, Linebacker
Marshall knows the Huskies will attempt to establish their running game, so the Herd need their most active defender to lead the charge.
Neville Hewitt will be tasked with tracking NIU's dynamic backfield, and he'll be asked to seal running lanes all over the formation.
The senior linebacker tallied a team-high 114 total stops, contributing 12.5 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks. He also snagged the game-sealing interception during the C-USA championship.
What They're Saying
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Northern Illinois
Per Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune, Carey is looking forward to another postseason game in the South.
"We're super-excited for our team and our fans to go back to a bowl game in Florida," Carey said. "In terms of the location, the opponent and the date, it's ideal for our players and for our fans."
Marshall
Chuck Landon of the Herald-Dispatch called Marshall's decision to pass on the Heart of Dallas Bowl "ludicrous."
Instead of opposing a Big Ten opponent, the Herd will face another Group of Five school. At least Marshall was matched up with Northern Illinois and can still prove it remains a top non-major conference program.
Prediction
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Highlighted by a two-touchdown effort in the first quarter, Hare and Stingily combine for 185 yards on the ground. Northern Illinois starts fast, but the Herd outplay the Huskies during the second half.
After Cato answers the early NIU lead with a pair of passing scores, Johnson takes over in the latter 30 minutes and dominates until the finish.
Marshall caps its outstanding season with a bowl victory and matches a program record with 13 wins. The Huskies finish with at least 11 wins for the fifth straight year.
Prediction: Marshall 37, Northern Illinois 31
Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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