SEC Championship 2014: Full Preview and Prediction for Alabama vs. Missouri
Alabama has convinced the College Football Playoff committee that it is the best team in the land, but the Crimson Tide will still have to prove it on the field.
While most fans are looking toward the national semifinals already, the squad still has to come through in the SEC Championship Game against Missouri, a red-hot opponent coming in with a six-game winning streak.
The Tigers handled the SEC East this season and will take another shot at the conference title after falling short in a 59-42 showdown against Auburn a year ago.
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This matchup seems one-sided on paper and in the minds of oddsmakers, but anything can happen in college football. Here is a look at everything you need to know about the upcoming battle for the most prestigious conference title in the country.
When: Saturday, December 6 at 4 p.m. ET
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Watch: CBS
Betting Info: (via Odds Shark)
- Over/Under: 49
- Spread: Alabama (-14.5)
Competition Upgrade
The reason the playoff committee is so high on Alabama is its strength of schedule after competing in the loaded SEC West. On the other hand, Missouri hasn't faced anywhere near the level of competition this season in the league's other division.
After a bad week for the conference, Bryan Fischer of NFL.com had to clarify the difference between the East and West divisions:
In addition to the fact that Mizzou was in the weaker of the divisions, its two games against the West were against Texas A&M and Arkansas, the two worst teams in the opposite division. Both wins came by seven points.
The only team the Tigers have played in the current Top 25 is Georgia, and that game resulted in a 34-0 loss.
Missouri came together for an excellent season and the roster is clearly full of talented players. Even Alabama coach Nick Saban admitted to the skill level on the defensive line, via Alex Scarborough of ESPN.com:
"These guys are obviously very quick guys that are instinctive, that beat people with their quickness. They're very productive in their system and scheme. They do a good job of executing.
Not many guys have made that kind of an impact with their defense anywhere in the country, in terms of giving the offense negative plays.
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This could create a challenge for the Tide's offense at points throughout the game. However, the Tigers simply aren't prepared for a juggernaut like Alabama after facing weaker competition throughout the year.
Can Alabama Still Afford a Loss?
While winning an SEC championship is usually the goal for all teams in the conference, Alabama always has a higher purpose of winning a national title every year. If this comes without winning a conference title, so be it.
The question is whether the Tide can lose this game and still earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.
ESPN's Paul Finebaum notes this case is certainly possible according to speculation from Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel:
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight also argues that while a win is almost assured against Missouri (82 percent likely), Alabama still has a 68 percent chance of remaining in the playoffs with a loss. The need to get an SEC team in the semifinals would likely be a drawing point:
"The dangerous case for Alabama is if it loses while the rest of the top five — Oregon, TCU, Florida State and Ohio State — win. That scenario would be a nightmare for the committee; it would either have to deny the SEC a slot in the playoff (Missouri and Mississippi State have almost no chance) or bypass a one-loss conference champion such as Ohio State for two-loss Alabama.
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Missouri has two losses on the year that includes a blowout against Georgia and a home defeat to 4-8 Indiana. Even a Tigers win shouldn't get them into the playoff.
Call it SEC bias, blame the media or whomever you want, but Alabama still could be alive even with a loss.
Prediction
Missouri has a talented set of running backs in Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy, but quarterback Maty Mauk often struggles with his accuracy and it leads to turnovers and stalled drives. This makes it no surprise the offense averages just 28.6 points per game to rank 70th in the country.
Against the No. 6 defense in college football (even after allowing 44 points to Auburn in the Iron Bowl), the Tigers are going to struggle to move the ball consistently.
The underdog will have more success on defense thanks to a great pass rush, but the defense will have no answer for Amari Cooper on screen passes or down the field.
Blake Sims makes mistakes, but he has improved throughout the year and can be trusted in big moments. This game will be nothing but big moments, and he will come through with his best showing of the season.
Alabama will showcase its ability with plenty of explosive plays in the passing game as well as on the ground with T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, this one won't even be close.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Missouri 13
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