Pac-12 Championship 2014: Last-Minute Odds and Prediction for Arizona vs. Oregon

Duck hunting season is coming to an end in many parts of the country, but the Arizona Wildcats could drastically alter the College Football Playoff picture in a single shot.  Though the Oregon Ducks are essentially assured of a berth in the inaugural playoff with a victory in the Pac-12 Championship Game, Rich Rodriguez's Wildcats could also sneak into the top four with a conference title in hand.

As the only team to beat Oregon this season, notching two wins over the Ducks would give Arizona arguably the most impressive signature victories of any team in the country.  It's unclear if the committee would accept a two-loss team, even one that took a conference title, but it would certainly make for a polarizing debate if teams like Baylor and Ohio State finish with just one loss.

Thus, the implications of this game are massive in relation to the postseason. Taking a final look at the odds and need-to-know information, here are the keys to a game tighter than many may perceive.

Date: Friday, Dec. 5

Time: 6 p.m. PT/9 p.m. ET

Place: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California 

TV: FOX

Line: Oregon (-14.5), according to Odds Shark

Game Prediction

The game may match up the No. 2 and No. 7 teams in the country, but you wouldn't know that looking at the pregame spread.  Especially with the game at a neutral site, it is surprising to see Oregon favored by over two touchdowns.  Yes, the Ducks have been dominant since their Oct. 2 loss to Arizona, winning by an average of 24.3 points per game in the seven games since.  

However, that loss was not a one-off fluke, as the Wildcats have now won two consecutive games against Marcus Mariota and the Ducks.  Mariota has been transcendent en route to a potential Heisman Trophy this season, with a QBR over 80 in 11 of 12 games this season.

The one exception?  The Arizona loss, when his raw QBR was a meager 53.1.  Indeed, the typically uber-efficient Mariota has been turnover-prone against Arizona his entire career:

Whereas Oregon's kryptonite was once Stanford's throwback power scheme, Arizona has taken the mantle from the Cardinal of being the Ducks' Pac-12 nemesis.  Ironically, the problem is totally different, as the Wildcats are closer to being a mirror image of the Ducks rather than their opposite.  

As SI.com's Lindsay Schnell relays, Rodriguez believes the Wildcats' uptempo philosophy allows their defense to adequately prepare for Oregon's typically intimidating offense:

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It helps that Arizona is not intimidated or caught off guard by Oregon’s offensive plan or tempo because Rodriquez is the one who developed the zone read concept almost 25 years ago.

“We talk about it in practice all the time: We’re comfortable being uncomfortable,” Rodriguez said. “For us, particularly our staff, isn’t not something new or different. Our first spring here we said we’re going to play faster than everybody in the country.”

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Arizona's defense was able to dictate to Oregon in their regular-season upset, generating three sacks and forcing two turnovers.  In Walter Camp finalist Scooby Wright III, the Wildcats possess a rare playmaker with the type of game-changing ability to effectively combat Mariota—a rare ingredient the Ducks are wary of:

So why is Oregon such an overwhelming favorite despite Arizona's proven track record of stopping them?  The Ducks are rightfully favored because of two factors: improved health, which includes the return of senior left tackle Jake Fisher (who missed the first meeting), and questions about the Wildcats defense if they are unable to force big plays.

Using Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index as a guide, the Wildcats defense ranks 35th in terms of drive success rate, the lowest ranking of any team in semirealistic playoff contention.  By more conventional statistics, Arizona concedes a whopping 434.7 yards per game, ninth in the Pac-12.  

That latter number is skewed a bit by the Wildcats' fast offensive pace, which is always going to leave the defense on the field longer than if Arizona ran a conventional offense.  But the FEI metrics largely support the conventional wisdom that, apart from Wright, the Wildcats should not have the talent or speed to shut down Oregon as well as they have over the last two years.

Two consecutive victories is not a fluke, so Arizona's chances cannot be dismissed; however, given Oregon's improving health and quietly excellent defensive progress, the Ducks clearly appear as though they are one of the best teams in the nation.  Consequently, expect Oregon to punch its ticket to the playoff and snap their brief skid to the Wildcats.

Prediction: Oregon 37, Arizona 27 

Stats via ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.