AFC Wild Card Race Set to Go Down to the Wire

The race for the two Wild Card spots in the AFC is more jumbled and jammed than the Los Angeles Freeway on a Monday afternoon.

Outside of the four divisional leaders (New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver), there are eight teams that can currently stake realistic claims at a playoff berth. Of those eight teams, one is 8-4 (San Diego), one is 6-6 (Houston) and an astounding six are 7-5 (Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Kansas City). 

The logjam has set up a fascinating final four weeks of the season, and it's sure to cause some head scratching as well. Which teams will end up making it? How will the permutations, combinations and tiebreakers shake out? And is it really possible that the same six teams that made the AFC playoffs last year will make it again this year? So much for parity!

Luckily for you, we here at Bleacher Report have access to a medley of strange and mystical devices, none more so than the famed crystal ball, capable of predicting fortunes with (somewhat) moderate accuracy. 

Let's gaze into the future and determine which two teams will ultimately lock down Wild Card spots in the ultra-competitive AFC.

The Pretenders

Houston Texans

The first squad that has earned the dreaded "pretender" label is the 6-6 Houston Texans. And no, star defensive lineman J.J. Watt, don't blame us for saying so—blame the crystal ball.

Coach Bill O'Brien has done a magnificent job in getting the Texans to 6-6, especially after they bottomed out last year to the tune of 2-14 and haven't received much of a contribution from the No. 1 overall pick of this past May's draft, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Despite starting two mediocre quarterbacks named Ryan (Fitzpatrick and Mallett), the Texans are within striking range of their first postseason berth since 2012.

But they aren't getting there. No way, no how.

Although they play 2-10 Jacksonville twice over the next four weeks, those contests are sandwiched in between games at Indianapolis and home to Baltimore. The best the Texans will go is 9-7, and it's more likely they'll finish at 8-8. Do you trust Fitzpatrick to win three of four games down the stretch? We don't, and yes, that does mean the Texans will lose at least once to the Jaguars before it's all said and done.

Buffalo Bills

With the Texans eliminated from the conversation, we turn to the second pretender: the Buffalo Bills. Look, the Bills deserve credit for their 7-5 record and have exhibited tremendous moxie in winning their last two games. But when it comes down to it, they're a flawed football team that will surely sputter on offense in a big spot.

Plus, their schedule is brutal: at Denver, Green Bay, at Oakland and at New England. Yikes. It's hard to construct a legitimate scenario where the Bills can beat either the Broncos, Packers or Patriots, which would leave their record at 8-8 and ensure a 15th consecutive season without a playoff appearance. But hey, at least they have their first-round pick in 2015, right? Wait, it was traded to Cleveland in the Sammy Watkins deal? Oh boy. Good luck, Buffalo!

Cleveland Browns

The final pretender is the 7-5 Cleveland Browns. The Browns have been one of the league's finest stories this year, but coach Mike Pettine angered the football gods (aka fantasy football players and lovers of fun) when he decided to stick with incumbent (and mediocre) signal-caller Brian Hoyer instead of turning to electric rookie Johnny Manziel.

David Richard/Associated Press

We believe the Browns have a very bright future and aren't far away from the playoffs, but it ain't happening in 2014. With games remaining against Indianapolis, Cincinnati, at Carolina and at Baltimore, the Browns could go 9-7, but 8-8 is probably the safer bet. Losing in Week 17 on the road against the Ravens is the biggest lock since Richard Sherman talking smack to 49ers fans on Thanksgiving. 

The crystal ball has spoken and rendered its verdict on the pretenders. Now, the contenders.

The Contenders

Kansas City Chiefs

The wheels might be coming off the 2014 Kansas City Chiefs.

After they raced out to a 7-3 start, some intellectuals (including this humble writer) believed they had the chops to make a Super Bowl run. And of course, they responded to that hype by dropping two games in grotesque fashion: an inexcusable loss to the previously winless Raiders and a whupping at the hands of the Broncos.

Now at 7-5, the Chiefs have little margin for error. Their remaining schedule is at Arizona, Oakland, at Pittsburgh and home against San Diego. It's quite possible that Sunday's game against the Cardinals will set back passing offense at least 75 years, and we like the home squad to triumph in that one. That means the Chiefs would have to win out to reach 10-6, and while not impossible, it doesn't appear especially likely. 

We acknowledge that the Chiefs have a realistic shot, but their road to 10-6 is a difficult one, so for now, they're off the list.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-5 and have been maddening in getting there. Their record should really be better—with losses to the pathetic Jets and Buccaneers on their resume, it's easy to see why. 

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

That fact makes the Steelers hard to trust. Their closing schedule is at Cincinnati, at Atlanta, Kansas City and Cincinnati. At best, they'll split with the Bengals, which means they'll have to win in Atlanta and at home against the Chiefs to move to 10-6. That's not outside the realm of possibility, but again, given their mercurial nature, the Steelers are hard to trust. We wouldn't lay our hard-earned money down on Pittsburgh moving into the postseason.

That leaves us with three favorites.

The Favorites

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have gotten to 7-5 thanks to improved play from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, a ferocious defensive front and because coach Joe Philbin hasn't yet found a way to screw it all up. Huzzah!

But seriously, the Dolphins have been impressive since starting 2-3 and have earned their "contender" status. Despite his ludicrous inability to complete a deep pass, Tannehill has been effective, and rookie receiver Jarvis Landry has emerged as his binky over the middle of the field. Miami also ranks seventh in the NFL with 33 sacks. 

While critics will say their 16-13 win over the Jets this past Monday night was ugly—and hell, who are we kidding, they're right—all that matters is the result. The Dolphins won the game. Style points don't matter in the National Football League—victories do. And the win set the Dolphins up to potentially reach the postseason for the first time since 2009.

Baltimore Ravens

The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens yakked away a major opportunity to solidify their position by blowing a late lead against the Chargers this past Sunday, and that loss could end up keeping them out of the playoffs. But their championship pedigree is too much to ignore, and they have a real shot.

This upcoming Sunday could very well determine one of the two AFC Wild Card slots, as the Dolphins host the Ravens. The winner of that game will be in the driver's seat for (at least) the sixth seed. 

While many expect the Ravens to win on the road, the crystal ball foresees a Miami victory, which would move the Dolphins to 8-5 and drop Baltimore to 7-6. After this Sunday, the teams' remaining schedules are as thus: Miami (at New England, Minnesota, NY Jets) and Baltimore (Jacksonville, at Houston, Cleveland).

The Dolphins already beat the Patriots once this year (in Week 1), so that ain't happening again. But this Miami team has shown enough moxie this year that it should be able to dispose of the Vikings and Jets at home to move to 10-6 and lock down a playoff spot. In this scenario, even if the Ravens were to win out and go 10-6, they'd finish behind the Dolphins in the tiebreaker. 

Stand up and take a bow, Dolphins fans—the crystal ball likes your team to advance to the postseason! Of course, they'll be bounced in the Wild Card round, but you can worry about that when the time comes.

San Diego Chargers

The final contender—and odds-on favorite for the AFC's fifth playoff seed—is the resilient San Diego Chargers. Their comeback win this past Sunday in Baltimore was stirring and confirmed that these Bolts are indeed a team that saves their best for last.

Yes, San Diego's closing schedule is tough—New England, Denver, at San Francisco and at Kansas City—but it only needs to win two of the four to move to 10-6 and lock down a spot. It might be an unpopular opinion, but the crystal ball likes the Chargers to beat the Patriots this Sunday night, and with the 49ers struggling and the Chiefs looking like the 1950 Nebraska Cornhuskers on offense, a win in one of those two games appears likely.

The Verdict

No, it won't be the same six teams making the AFC playoffs, but five of the six usual suspects will return: New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver and San Diego, with the Dolphins joining them as the new guy in the group.

Of course, this is all subject to change, and if Sunday's results go differently than expected, there could be an entirely different two teams that qualify.

And that's what makes the whole thing so damn compelling. The race for the two AFC Wild Card spots is going to come down to the wire, and it's going to be exciting as hell to watch.