Birmingham Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Florida vs. East Carolina
Despite losing head coach Will Muschamp after yet another lackluster season, the Florida Gators (6-5) are going bowling, where they'll meet the Pirates from East Carolina (8-4) from the American Athletic Conference.
Florida won't be under the direction of new head coach Jim McElwain just yet, who makes the move from Colorado State, where he was 22-16 in three seasons, including a 10-2 mark this year. Instead, D.J. Durkin will be at the Gators' helm for their matchup with the Pirates.
Here's what you need to know:
Date: Saturday, January 3, 2015
Time: 1 p.m. EST
Place: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
TV: ESPN or ESPN 2
Line: Florida -7 according to OddsShark.com
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7ECU has a much more potent offense than does Florida this season, but then again, the Pirates weren't playing SEC defenses week in and week out. Both teams are efficient (90 percent) red-zone teams, and both score 30 or more points per game.
Florida is plus-eight in turnover margin this season, while ECU is minus-four—which could provide some separation between these two teams on January 3.
Florida Keys to Victory
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Pass the Football Successfully
The Achilles' heel of the Gators this season has been the passing game. Florida ranks 12th in the SEC in passing (180.7 yards per game) and 107th nationally, but ranks in the SEC's top four in both passing and rushing defense. If the Gators can find ways to move the ball down the field in chunks, they may just be able to avoid embarrassing themselves and their conference against a "non-power conference" opponent.
Status Quo on Defense
As mentioned, the Gators defense has been pretty solid this season. Florida sports the ninth-ranked total defense, giving up just 311.0 yards per game. With all of the struggles the offense has been having this season, that trend will need to continue into the bowl game for the Gators to have a legitimate shot at victory.
East Carolina Keys to Victory
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Create Turnovers
It's always good to create turnovers, but when you're up against a team that has had trouble with ball security, turnovers can make a big impact on the mental game as much as on the actual game on the field.
Air It Out
The Pirates have the second-best passing offense in the FBS, averaging 366.8 yards per game. ECU also scores 37.2 points per game, which puts the Pirates in the top 20 nationally, as well. If ECU can get a lead, it should be in a good position to hold on to it: ECU outscores its opponents 151-57 in the fourth quarter this season while not surrendering a single halftime lead in 2014.
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Florida Players to Watch
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Treon Harris
The freshman quarterback took over for Jeff Driskel this season, but he has completed just 50 percent of his throws. He's been a bit better than Driskel when it comes to not throwing interceptions, but it's clear that Florida lacks a true playmaking quarterback. Keep an eye on Harris, as his success (or failure) early in the game will give a good indication of Florida's chances at victory.
Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor
This one-two punch combination at running back has combined for 1,382 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. They combine for better than 25 carries per game, and both average more than 10 on their own. Given Florida's relative lack of passing ability, the run game is likely to play a big role.
Dante Fowler
Fowler leads the Gators and is 10th in the SEC with 12 tackles for loss this season, which include 5.5 sacks. Fowler has also created turnovers this season with two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. While there are plenty of playmakers on defense for the Gators, Florida does much better when Fowler spends time in the opponent's offensive backfield. In Florida's wins this season, Fowler has 7.5 tackles for loss. In Florida's losses, Fowler has 4.5.
East Carolina Players to Watch
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Shane Carden
The unquestioned leader of the Pirates, Carden has been prolific in the passing attack this season. His 4,309 passing yards is second in the FBS, and the senior has six games with three or more passing touchdowns this season. It's not a stretch to say that if Carden's successful, ECU is successful.
Justin Hardy
Every quarterback with big numbers needs at least one receiver with big numbers. For Carden, his big-time receiver is Justin Hardy. With more than 1,300 yards and nine receiving touchdowns, Hardy is the leading receiver out of the American Athletic Conference this season. The more often you hear "Carden to Hardy," the better ECU is likely to do against any opponent.
Josh Hawkins
Lockdown defensive backs are a coach's best friend, and Hawkins has made plenty of friends on his sideline this season. With four interceptions, Hawkins is fourth in the AAC in the category, while breaking up another 11 passes thrown his way.
What They’re Saying
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Ruffin McNeill certainly understands the challenge his program is going to face when taking on Florida and its truckload of tradition (and fans) that will be wheeled into Birmingham (from WITN.com)
"We are looking forward to the challenge of playing Florida, a program rich in tradition out of a conference which has our highest respect. We are excited to have another opportunity to accomplish something special for this senior class, especially against a team the caliber of the Gators.
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New Florida head coach Jim McElwain may not be coaching the Gators quite yet, but he still had a message for his players-to-be. "Embrace what [you're] doing. You're Gators. Let's go win a bowl game."
McElwain will meet with his new team Monday before turning things over to defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will be interim head coach during the bowl season.
Prediction
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East Carolina's strength this season has been the passing attack, with the nation's No. 2 pass offense. Unfortunately for the Pirates, Florida's problems this season aren't stemming from the defensive side of the football.
It remains to be seen exactly how Florida will handle the aerial pressure, but it's safe to say that the Gators haven't seen anything quite like ECU when it comes to passing. Even Florida State's 299.8 passing yards per game is over 67 yards shy of the Pirates' average output.
Still, we're talking about an AAC offense smashing into an SEC defense, and that has to give ECU head coach Ruffin McNeill cause for concern. The Pirates couldn't quite survive South Carolina way back in Week 2, and Florida and South Carolina are very, very similar-looking teams this season (especially given the November 15 meeting between the Gamecocks and Gators that needed overtime to decide a winner—South Carolina, 23-20).
Prediction: Florida 27, East Carolina 24
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