MLB Injury Recoveries More Crucial to Teams Than a Big Offseason Move
With the winter meetings starting this Sunday, December 7, we will be seeing a lot of rumors and transactions across the league, but for some teams, the most important updates will come off the field.
Each of the teams listed here will gain a superstar or two back after losing them for the bulk of 2013 due to injury. The Baltimore Orioles—who just lost Nick Markakis, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports, and Nelson Cruz via free agency—will be getting back All-Stars Manny Machado and Matt Wieters.
Up-and-coming teams such as the New York Mets and Miami Marlins will be getting back aces Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez, so there isn't as much pressure to overspend on the free-agent market on the likes of Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.
Not all teams will make a big free-agent signing this offseason, but that doesn't mean they won't improve drastically. I will delve into projected WAR upgrades for each team to show just how much of an upgrade each one can expect during 2015.
Angels RHP Garrett Richards
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Garrett Richards came out of nowhere in 2014 to become the best pitcher on the best team in all of baseball until a devastating knee injury ended his season prematurely.
Richards was a first-round pick in 2009, and after a 4.16 ERA in 2013, he finished with the 10th-best ERA in baseball (2.61) in 2014. At the time of his injury, he was fourth in the AL in wins (13), fifth in WHIP (1.04) and sixth in pitchers' WAR (4.4).
The initial diagnosis was a six-to-nine month recovery, which put him on pace for a return during spring training or at some point early in the season. Mike Digiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported he's on schedule in his recovery, and it's going "very well:"
"Richards’ agent, Fred Wray, said Monday that the hard-throwing right-hander has been riding an exercise bike, walking without crutches and doing strengthening and range-of-motion exercises at a physical-therapy facility in Tempe, Ariz.
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Doctors said Richards would need six to nine months to recover from his surgery. Though the Angels have no desire or plans to rush him, there is a good chance Richards could be ready for the start of the 2015 season.
"“The key to his rehab is not overdoing it for the first three months,” Wray said. “After that, he can slowly work his way back into more activities. From everything I’ve heard, he’s on pace with everything. It’s going very well.”
This is great news for the Angels and baseball fans (outside the AL West), as it looks like we're going to get one of the game's most promising arms back in time to start the season. For a team with title hopes and an already sky-high payroll, there may be no greater offseason acquisition.
2015 WAR Impact: Neutral
Twins OF Byron Buxton and 3B Miguel Sano
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From the top prospect heading into 2013, we move onto Byron Buxton, Baseball America's top prospect heading into the 2014 season who unfortunately—for him and the Minnesota Twins—had a fate all too similar to Jurickson Profar, who I will talk about later.
After finishing 2013 at High-A ball, Buxton had the chance of starting 2014 in Double-A and getting his first taste of the big leagues in September. However, after a wrist injury suffered in spring training cost him his first two months of the season and a concussion cost him the final two weeks, Buxton was never able to make progress on his immense potential.
He ended the year with just 31 games played and a career-worst .234 batting average, .307 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage, albeit it is just his third professional season. His bad luck continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he dislocated his finger after just 58 at-bats and was forced to sit out the rest of the games.
After Aaron Hicks went from top prospect to failed center fielder two years running, the Twins desperately need Buxton to stay healthy and develop into the five-tool center fielder that he still has the potential to be.
Miguel Sano is another tremendous prospect for the Twins, having ranked in Baseball Prospectus' top 35 prospects five years in a row. His reign among the top prospects may come to an end this year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in March and was forced to miss the entire season.
On the positive side for Minnesota, Sano was further along in his development than Buxton, having already played 67 games in Double-A and clubbing 19 home runs. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune posted a video of Sano swinging and provided an update on his rehab:
"Sano, who had surgery during spring training, will remain in Fort Myers until Dec. 1, then he'll head to the Dominican Republic to play the second half of the winter ball season. That will allow him to get some game action in before spring training camp opens in February.
The injury ruined any chance of him debuting this season. Sano was scheduled to join fellow top prospect Byron Buxton and Kennys Vargas at New Britain, but Sano's elbow injury and Buxton's wrist injury kept New Britain from having a threatening lineup.
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The Twins haven't made the playoffs since 2010, and with new manager Paul Molitor starting in 2015 they will have a few years before they become contenders again. Getting Buxton and Sano healthy and back on the field ready to make contributions in September at the big league level would be the two best additions Minnesota could make this winter...no offense Torii Hunter.
2015 Impact: 1.2 WAR Increase
Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia
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Dustin Pedroia dealt with a variety of arm/hand injuries throughout the 2014 season.
In April, Pedroia was dealing with wrist pain, and while he didn't miss a lot of time, it was an injury he said he had to deal with the entire season, per ESPN Boston, resulting in a career-low seven home runs and a .376 slugging percentage. To fix the problem, Pedroia underwent successful surgery in September and is expected to make a full recovery.
The Red Sox finished in the bottom half of the league in runs, slugging percentage and home runs in 2014, finishing in last in the AL East after winning the 2013 World Series. The front office has already tried to address that problem by signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, but getting its MVP and clubhouse leader back will provide a bigger boost than any potential free agent out there.
From 2011-2013 Pedroia averaged a 5.8 WAR. Last season it dropped down to 4.4. He's still 31 years old, and with his wrist injury fixed, I believe he'll return to that average, if not more.
2015 Impact: 1.4 WAR Increase
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Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton and RHP Jose Fernandez
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Across all of baseball, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better pair of young players on the same team.
Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez had a pair of devastating injuries last season; Stanton was drilled in the face with a pitch, and Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery. While both are expected to fully recover from these injuries, no team's success both for 2015 and the rest of the decade will rely heavier on the shoulders of two players.
Tommy John has become second nature to pitchers these days, so I'm not worried about Fernandez and his recovery. But Stanton may have some obstacles to overcome. David Wright was hit square on the helmet in 2009, and he struggled initially. Stanton will have the benefit of an entire offseason to recover, so hopefully he will get enough reps and come into 2015 ready to go.
2015 Impact: 2.0 WAR Increase
Brewers OF Ryan Braun
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Ryan Braun's 2014 season was the worst in professional career. He had career lows in batting average (.263), on-base percentage (.324) and slugging percentage (.453), and a lot of that was due to a nagging thumb injury that he ended up getting surgery on in September.
That's the bad news.
The good news is that Braun recently spoke about the surgery to the Milwaukee press (via Brew Beat) and is thrilled with the progress:
"“It definitely worked,” Braun said Wednesday, when the Brewers right fielder took part in a Thanksgiving food drive at Miller Park. “It made a huge difference.”
[...]
“Right now, I don’t feel any [discomfort], and I haven’t been able to say that for two years,” he said. “I think I’ve told you guys, it [bothered him] shaking hands, writing — you know, just everyday activities. Now I don’t feel it at all, so I’m excited.”
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“I’m encouraged by how it feels, but at the same time, I think I have to be cautiously optimistic [until] I get into Spring Training and see how it responds,” Braun said. “But it hasn’t felt this good in a really long time.”
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From 2007-2012, Braun averaged 34 homers, 107 RBI with a .313 batting average and a 5.05 WAR. After two years of struggles (averaging a 1.4 WAR), getting Braun back fully healthy and back to a 3-4 WAR-level player will provide a boost that nobody on the free-agent market could give.
2015 Impact: 2.5 WAR Increase
Rangers 1B Prince Fielder and INF Jurickson Profar
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The Texas Rangers set a record last season for the most players used in MLB history. So while they had plenty of players to choose from, I'm going to focus on two players they need to return in a big way: Prince Fielder and Jurickson Profar.
Fielder was limited to just 42 games last season after missing only one over the previous fives seasons due to a neck fusion surgery he had in May. What the Rangers missed was a player who averaged 36 home runs, 111 RBI and a .288 batting average from 2007-2013.
What made matters worse is that they traded Ian Kinsler to the Detroit Tigers for him, so not only did they lose Fielder, but also the 5.4 WAR that Kinsler generated in 2014.
Profar entered the 2013 season as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, according to Baseball America. He got his first full taste of the big leagues in 2013, and while it wasn't a sparkling debut, he hit .234 with six home runs over 85 games. He was expected to play a big role in 2014.
Unfortunately for Profar and the Rangers, that never happened. After injuring his shoulder in spring training, Profar suffered setback after setback throughout the season, and he was never able to play.
However, the Rangers got good news this week, as MRIs on both Profar and teammate Mitch Moreland showed they both should be ready for spring training, per Calvin Watkins of ESPN Dallas.
Fielder has proved to be a top-five first baseman when healthy, and Profar has the potential to be one of the best middle infielders in baseball down the road. Getting these players back will be a huge boost for the Rangers and their chances in the AL West.
2015 Impact: 4.5 WAR Increase
Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez
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The Colorado Rockies have not won more than 74 games since 2010, so having their two best players coming off surgery is a big concern.
Troy Tulowitzki has played an average of 88 games over the past three seasons, and his 2014 season ended early after undergoing surgery to fix a torn labrum in his hip in August. While he's expected to be ready by spring training, a hip injury can drain a player of his power, so he will be someone to keep an eye on.
Carlos Gonzalez is coming off his worst full season in the majors, where he hit .238 with 11 home runs over 70 games and recorded a minus-0.3 WAR. His season ended early after undergoing surgery to repair the patella tendon in his left knee.
Despite the surgery, if Gonzalez can get back to the .311/.370/.566 slash line he averaged from 2010-2013 in 129 games a season, during which he averaged a 4.08 WAR, that would be as big an offseason acquisition the Rockies could find anywhere on the market.
It should not be a surprise to anyone to see Tulowitzki or Gonzalez on this list. The Rockies have to hope that for 2015 and beyond they can somehow stay off it.
2015 Impact: 5.0 WAR Increase
Orioles 3B Manny Machado and C Matt Wieters
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Manny Machado and Matt Wieters are two of baseball's best young players, but they were limited to 108 games combined last season due to injury.
Machado missed the start of the season after suffering a devastating left knee injury at the end of the 2013 season, and he missed the end of the season with the same knee injury, this time on his right leg. While the team confirmed he is expected to fully recover by the start of spring training, per ESPN.com news services, the front office has to start worrying how this will affect Machado moving forward.
Will he be the NBA's version of Derrick Rose, dealing with nagging injuries to his legs, or will he be able to recover his MVP-level performance that earned him a 6.3 WAR and the ninth-most MVP votes in 2013 despite being just 20 years old?
Matt Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery in June this past season, and the recovery time is expected to be around nine months.
While it was a small sample size, just 26 games, Wieters was in the middle of the best season of his young career, with career highs in batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.500). He will be just 28 years old at the start of this season, so barring any setbacks, there is no reason to expect a decline in his production.
2015 Impact: 5.5 WAR Increase
Mets RHP Matt Harvey and 3B David Wright
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Normally a team would have to pay over $100 million to acquire a 25-year-old former first-round pick who started the All-Star Game in 2013. Just ask the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox, who are in pursuit of Jon Lester, per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors.
For the New York Mets however, they will get their "Dark Knight", who goes by the name of Matt Harvey, back for the price of a roster spot—fresh off 18 months of rehab from Tommy John surgery.
While Harvey doesn't expect to throw 200 innings, he confirmed in his press conference with the media Wednesday that he will be ready for spring training and cannot wait to start the season. If he comes anywhere close to the 6.0 WAR pitcher he was in 2013, look out NL East hitters.
Not only are they going to add one of the top young arms in the game, but the Mets will also be getting seven-time All-Star David Wright back. After battling a shoulder injury—which barely kept his arm in place during the season—according to the club, Wright has made "marked improvement" after his rehab, per NJ.com's Mike Vorkunov, and appears primed for a bounce-back year.
In 2012 and 2013, Wright had an average WAR of 6.75, but last season it dwarfed down to 1.9. He will be 32 when the season begins, so a return to an All-Star-level performance should not be out of the question.
2015 Impact: 9.0 WAR Increase
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com,Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or follow the latest rumors, check in with me on Twitter: @ZPetersel.
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